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So I was watching the ABC Evening News...


Coach McGuirk

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BBC is saying that the big snow storms are caused by more moisture in the air.....because of Global Warming

what a load of nonsense that is. I suppose then that the big snowstorms back in the 60s and 70s were caused by global warming? I find people in the UK and in my own country Canada are rarely exposed to two sides of a story.

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If its colder, theres less moisture in the atmosphere, can't be both.

I'm gonna enjoy the upcoming cooling trend...already cooling since 2002, El Nino interruption is donewith, lets resume! Global temps via satellite/UAH dailes now between -0.2 to -0.3C, and more cooling to come for the next several months.

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If its colder, theres less moisture in the atmosphere, can't be both.

I'm gonna enjoy the upcoming cooling trend...already cooling since 2002, El Nino interruption is donewith, lets resume! Global temps via satellite/UAH dailes now between -0.2 to -0.3C, and more cooling to come for the next several months.

Being one of my capabilities is that of a proficient stock chart technical analyst; I find it most irritating to see people claiming we've been in a "cooling trend" since 2000, 2002, or whatever. The simple fact is; no such trend exists.

That we may cool down over the next several decades is certainly possible; but from a chart (trend) analysis there is absolutely, positively no indication this will happen. Please don't fall into the trap of claiming "trends" exist when they don't.

:pimp:

post-3011-0-70822800-1296103436.gif

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So what?

That doesn't change the fact that we've been cooling since 2002 via satellite.....so why did you post that pointless comment?

Quit trying to start arguments.

Actually ... no. Better check the latest data. The Nino put us positive for the time being. I corrected you because we should be using temperature data not CH5 data.

http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2002/to:2011/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2011/trend/plot/uah/from:2002/to:2011/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2011

post-480-0-16003600-1296115078.png

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Yes, November 2010. The trend is positive. Adding on December 2010 would not change the trend significantly.

Any other questions?

(FYI, your Graph is flawed, the "UAH line" starts below the trend, which is false analysis)

Either way......way whaaa?

We dropped 0.1C between NOV & DEC, and we're going to drop another 0.15C in five days when the JAN number comes out. Thats another 0.25C Dropped.......the trend is negative at this point. ok?

Either way, does it matter? Its obvious that in a few months, the trend will be negative once more! So, that being the case, we know its a cooling trend 2002-2011 interrupted by ENSO.

Thats what I've been saying all along...Cooling from 2002-2011, interrupted by ENSO, then we resume the cooling for the next 35yrs. ok?

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Technical analysis; defining a TREND.

An uptrend is characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows.

If one in 1880 had invested in 'temperature', one would have done exceedingly well to this point. (Though a technical analyst would not have purchased temperature until the late 1920s when temperature's 5-year moving average made a 'double top breakout.'

When does a trend break or reverse; and how do you spot it?

The uptrend had a confirmed break ~1945; triggering a 'sell signal' to a market technician. (Note: trend investors never make fools of themselves by trying to pick tops and bottoms.) At this point, a temperature investor technician would move to the sidelines until the chart generated a new action signal.

Temperature 'consolidated' from ~1945 to ~1980 then gave a 'buy signal' as the 5-year average broke above the early 1940s high. Since 1980 we have a strong series of higher highs and higher lows. To define the uptrend, we place a straight edge on the chart; connecting the lows. This uptrend is uninterrupted right through today. (The same procedure can be used to spot the break in the 1920s to 1940s uptrend.)

Charts are always a mass of ups and downs; but trends are well-defined and can be easily spotted by technicians. Trend support for 2010/2011 is ~.42C Should we revisit this level, one can say the uptrend is broken (but that does not necessarily mean a downtrend has begun - because it may just be another period of consolidation.)

(Final note; one does not short a consolidation area; one only shorts after a downtrend has been confirmed. Shorting a consolidation period e.g. 1945-80 would result in serious whipsaw financial injury.)

post-3011-0-35533300-1296659389.gif

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The reason for the cold weather this season. It's global warming.

Totally. As global warming was the cause of the mild winters of 1990-1, 1991-2, 1994-5, 1996-7, 1997-8, 1998-9, 1999-2000 (at least in December and early January, but the deep freeze from mid-January to end of month was also the product of global warming), 2001-2 and 2006-7. Global warming also produced the January 6-7, 1996 and February 11, 2006 blizzards. And this winters blizzards.

Global warming had a more limited role in the Christmas 1776 snowstorm that impacted on George Washington's battle at Trenton with the Hessians and the British.

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Being one of my capabilities is that of a proficient stock chart technical analyst; I find it most irritating to see people claiming we've been in a "cooling trend" since 2000, 2002, or whatever. The simple fact is; no such trend exists.

That we may cool down over the next several decades is certainly possible; but from a chart (trend) analysis there is absolutely, positively no indication this will happen. Please don't fall into the trap of claiming "trends" exist when they don't.

Can you find me any land stations whose temperature records are anything like those displayed on your chart?

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Can you find me any land stations whose temperature records are anything like those displayed on your chart?

Keep in mind that the chart above is plotted on a scale from -0.4 to +0.6 (at the maximums).

All you need to find is a big city, and you can make wonderful upward trending charts.

Here is Greenwich (London) UK.

http://climatereason...eenwich_UK.html

Greenwich_UK_Large.gif

However, if you had invested in the temperature futures, you would have lost your shirt during the cooling in the 1960's, as well as a few other low spots.

Actually, my calculations based on the unfortunately truncated NASA dataset seem to show a much more significant early warming, and mid-century cooling.

http://data.giss.nas...p/station_data/

The 1841-1890 point (single point) came from Brunt:

http://onlinelibrary...519206/abstract

post-5679-0-61485800-1296690097.gif

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Keep in mind that the chart above is plotted on a scale from -0.4 to +0.6 (at the maximums).

All you need to find is a big city, and you can make wonderful upward trending charts.

Here is Greenwich (London) UK.

Nothing here shakes my view that the "charts" of "global temperatures" are smoothed out and/or downright fake.
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