WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LWX's infamous computer generated snow forecast: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ I've contoured my share of maps in my time, and I don't recall ever seeing this big bag of WTF that's happening near my house in eastern Howard County on that map. LOL...the 0.5" contour makes a loop, then kind of asymptotes to the south, then comes back up on the west side...what a hot ass mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 126 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011 VALID JAN 27/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z/27 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ..CLIPPER CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DAY 1 PREFERENCE: NONE THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL OF RECENT DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING JUST SOUTH OF 40N. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET HANDLE THE CLIPPER COMPARABLY TO THE OTHER RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WITH A STRONG CLUSTERING OVERALL. the h5 track is pretty good around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 the h5 track is pretty good around here. clippers usually track a bit North at game time i have heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 those Hi-Res models will trend that clipper north between now and tomorrow as all clippers trend north in the final 24 hours as they approach the east coast, which will put the DCA/BWI metro areas in the bulls eye p.s. how the hell did NE end up getting all that snow; if JI was wondering what we would have had with 3 degree lower temps, he should go to the Boston NWS home page and look at the storm reports...never mind, here it is: http://forecast.weat...BOX&product=PNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 clippers usually track a bit North at game time i have heard I like the way you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Wow Mitch check out the NAM 18z sim rad at 24 Getting a bit nicer around here. Maybe we can eek out 1-2'' at Game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 those Hi-Res models will trend that clipper north between now and tomorrow as all clippers trend north in the final 24 hours as they approach the east coast, which will put the DCA/BWI metro areas in the bulls eye p.s. how the hell did NE end up getting all that snow; if JI was wondering what we would have had with 3 degree lower temps, he should go to the Boston NWS home page and look at the storm reports...never mind, here it is: http://forecast.weat...BOX&product=PNS Central Park somehow pulled out another 19". They really are maxing out their potential on just about every single storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SREFs are seriously underwhelmed with tomorrow's clipper. Actually both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 those Hi-Res models will trend that clipper north between now and tomorrow as all clippers trend north in the final 24 hours as they approach the east coast, which will put the DCA/BWI metro areas in the bulls eye p.s. how the hell did NE end up getting all that snow; if JI was wondering what we would have had with 3 degree lower temps, he should go to the Boston NWS home page and look at the storm reports...never mind, here it is: http://forecast.weat...BOX&product=PNS NYC got 19" of snow from this storm, absolute insanity. And the difference was that the temp was 31 there rather than 33. They have a serious shot of breaking their 1996 record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Wow Mitch check out the NAM 18z sim rad at 24 Getting a bit nicer around here. Maybe we can eek out 1-2'' at Game time. not bad we just might one reason I think we do good too is that there is a lot or residual moisture in the atmosphere (no strong High behind storm) as evidenced by visual sat pic http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=vis&inv=0&t=cur®ion=at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SREFs are seriously underwhelmed with tomorrow's clipper. Actually both of them. NAM did better yesterday than SREFs and, in fact, better in every event than SREFs qpf-wise I'll go with the NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NAM did better yesterday than SREFs and, in fact, better in every event than SREFs qpf-wise I'll go with the NAM fwiw True enough. NAM has ANOTHER Harford/Cecil counties "jackpot" with >=0.1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 True enough. NAM has ANOTHER Harford/Cecil counties "jackpot" with >=0.1" QPF. Not to mention the NAM shows that on sim rad despite it under doing current precip on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NYC got 19" of snow from this storm, absolute insanity. And the difference was that the temp was 31 there rather than 33. They have a serious shot of breaking their 1996 record. they got 19" out of this? http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KNYC.html yet we get almost 1.8" qpf and end up officially with 7.8" at BWI I said it before, I'll say it again...I was half right in that this winter is still gonna' find every which way it can to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NAM did better yesterday than SREFs and, in fact, better in every event than SREFs qpf-wise I'll go with the NAM fwiw They're actually not much different from each other. Both show measurable-- the difference between 0.1" and 0.05" is too small-scale for models to nail down anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 not bad we just might one reason I think we do good too is that there is a lot or residual moisture in the atmosphere (no strong High behind storm) as evidenced by visual sat pic http://weather.unisy...t=cur®ion=at my point that I forgot to mention because I'm working from home today is, that with clippers, they're usually moisture starved as they exit the mts the residual moisture (which should remain through tomorrow) should help and at least give us several hours of light snow vs. on and off flurries, but maybe I'm over thinking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 daytime clipper without much qpf. mmm, hopefully i get a dusting on snow i already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 NAM did better yesterday than SREFs and, in fact, better in every event than SREFs qpf-wise I'll go with the NAM fwiw i dunno why people would use sref as their main guidance. to me it's more about knowing that XX is more likely than XX given its output. of course the nam is going to do better on smaller qpf maxes than a blended model imo. this last system was the NAMs for the taking anyway given it's small scale uberness. heck i think the hi res might have actually done OK for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 "Duel" Clipper weekend threat? Sounds a little like dueling banjos or something... Sort of like this :guitar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Central Park somehow pulled out another 19". They really are maxing out their potential on just about every single storm. This might make a 2 on the Nesis now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Weenie radar looks nice, but it is moving like a rocket. Don't know if it will have time to even drop an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Darn mtns . Does seem some of the qpf try's to make it round the bend and get reenergized onthe other side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 850s 42 below in Canada that's serous cold coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 nam looks really nice at 500 now for tomorrow. i'd think it might "overperform" but i dunno at midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 kinda weird how it craps out a bit at 700 on the 12hr panel. it is crossing terrain in there but it doesnt match the before and after. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_700_006m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_700_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_700_018m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 kinda weird how it craps out a bit at 700 on the 12hr panel. it is crossing terrain in there but it doesnt match the before and after. http://www.nco.ncep....am_700_006m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_700_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_700_018m.gif It's because it is going through the data sparse region of the Southern Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hope this moisture gets eaten up over the mountains. Day after day after day of clouds and snow chances and cold temps is getting old fast. I can see how people get depressed in the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hope this moisture gets eaten up over the mountains. Day after day after day of clouds and snow chances and cold temps is getting old fast. I can see how people get depressed in the Winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looking pretty moisture starved right now but definitely making a bee line for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.