Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

most La Nina-ish December SOI index in history


Recommended Posts

For some random reason, I was just looking at the SOI archives on this web site:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

I saw that December 2010 SOI was 27.1. Glancing back through the table, there was never a higher SOI index in December. The only higher monthly value of SOI was November 1973, when it was 31.6. There are a lot of numbers on the table, and I could have missed something. This just strikes me as weird.

Now, looking at the 2-monthly MEI index from this web site:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

the Nov/Dec 2010 MEI was -1.519. The most recent 2-month period when it was this low or lower was Feb/Mar 2008, when it was -1.529. Other low MEI values were:

1973-1974 winter

1954-1956 time period

Jul/Aug 1964

January-April 1971.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For some random reason, I was just looking at the SOI archives on this web site:

http://www.bom.gov.a...t/soihtm1.shtml

I saw that December 2010 SOI was 27.1. Glancing back through the table, there was never a higher SOI index in December. The only higher monthly value of SOI was November 1973, when it was 31.6. There are a lot of numbers on the table, and I could have missed something. This just strikes me as weird.

Now, looking at the 2-monthly MEI index from this web site:

http://www.esrl.noaa.../MEI/table.html

the Nov/Dec 2010 MEI was -1.519. The most recent 2-month period when it was this low or lower was Feb/Mar 2008, when it was -1.529. Other low MEI values were:

1973-1974 winter

1954-1956 time period

Jul/Aug 1964

January-April 1971.

More impressive, IMO, is that is the second highest 6 month average SOI since 1876, just behind 1917...and Jan 2011 will make it 7 months around 20

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For some random reason, I was just looking at the SOI archives on this web site:

http://www.bom.gov.a...t/soihtm1.shtml

I saw that December 2010 SOI was 27.1. Glancing back through the table, there was never a higher SOI index in December. The only higher monthly value of SOI was November 1973, when it was 31.6. There are a lot of numbers on the table, and I could have missed something. This just strikes me as weird.

Now, looking at the 2-monthly MEI index from this web site:

http://www.esrl.noaa.../MEI/table.html

the Nov/Dec 2010 MEI was -1.519. The most recent 2-month period when it was this low or lower was Feb/Mar 2008, when it was -1.529. Other low MEI values were:

1973-1974 winter

1954-1956 time period

Jul/Aug 1964

January-April 1971.

I created an Excel spreadsheet with the SOI data that I'll post when I get home. I did an average for each year and an overall average. Out of all that data the overall average was .1, it should make it fairly easy to correlate the years with the highest/lowest index to see whether it matches the Nina/Nino patterns.

I'd personally like to see how this matches up with winter storms too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I created an Excel spreadsheet with the SOI data that I'll post when I get home. I did an average for each year and an overall average. Out of all that data the overall average was .1, it should make it fairly easy to correlate the years with the highest/lowest index to see whether it matches the Nina/Nino patterns.

I'd personally like to see how this matches up with winter storms too.

Thank you! I look forward to looking at your data! Analogues for this year have been difficult; my favored pick (based on teleconnections) was an early 1950's double nina pattern (-pdo, +amo) and my humble prognostication is now officially dead in the water. :axe: This weather pattern in no way resembles that year for Central Texas. From all the data I can gather, this winter has been colder with more precipitation than expected...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok, here's the spreadsheet, It's uploaded as a .txt file, when you download it change the extension to .xlsx, this is in the newer Excel format. If you'd like the older format I can do one and upload it also. I added some conditional formatting to highlight the various levels of the index. You can delete those if you find it annoying!

Right now it's sorted by yearly avg.soi.txt

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...