Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I dunno Scott...I think this is so preposterous we have to at least notice it. It brings the qpf in a way the model itself hasn't figured out. Crazy! Well Jerry it's a daytime storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z GFS is going to crush southern AND central New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Waste of time. Going to listen to Obama now......haven't missed a state of the union in about 50 years... You're not missing much....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think NAM is on something...........ketamine ... agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 500mb low is more consolidated and further west....but the surface low is further southeast...no. It did this **** for the past storm on the 21st storm too...the surface seems to take time to catch up to the mid-levels... Yeah it seems really disconnected. The euro has a nice consolidated low very near the NAM's depiction, but look at the 600 mile elongated low..lol. C'mon, 500 pattern is similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Matt Noyes livestream is classic...good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 500mb low is more consolidated and further west....but the surface low is further southeast...no. It did this **** for the past storm on the 21st storm too...the surface seems to take time to catch up to the mid-levels... Yeah like 6 hrs before the storm arrives.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z GFS is going to crush southern AND central New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 what in the HELL is causing that weird dry slot to race up florida like that? Ive never seen that http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Everything and I mean everything, except the surface/qpf representaion came into better agreement. Yeah, the NAM just humps all that convection in the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z GFS is going to crush southern AND central New England Says who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Says who? he says lol....and I tend to agree. It trended more amplified at 500mb just like we were seeing from the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well Jerry it's a daytime storm now. Don't think that didn't go through my mind! I was thinking...sleep tomorrow night after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Kinda OT...but is it crazy to agree with Kevin on some level? Does looking at the NAM actually hurt more forecasts than it helps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm going 7-12" first call IMBY. My goal is just to get 7.6" which is what I need to beat last years season total. Its going to be a late night tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is the best evidence of 6-12 in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Kinda OT...but is it crazy to agree with Kevin on some level? Does looking at the NAM actually hurt more forecasts than it helps? It's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 he says lol....and I tend to agree. It trended more amplified at 500mb just like we were seeing from the 12z ECMWF. Wasn't complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's awful. Damn Bob, You should have started the thread............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z GFS is going to crush southern AND central New England Bombs away. New and interesting look incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It may not be as messed up as the NAM, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's still lacking at 0Z and doesn't get it completely until 12Z tomorrow. The American models are the consistently poor it seems. 00z GFS is going to crush southern AND central New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Whole lotta low level moisture down on the South Coast tonight. Westerly and Newport are both reporting freezing fog with temps of 16 and 19. But I gotta wonder who's manning these reporting stations....because both are reporting visibilities of a quarter mile and it's not that low where I'm at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I hate seeing these consistently, I hope the GFS will at least hold serve from 00z. I think it will imo. Scott what I respect the most about you is your outright honesty even if it flies in the face of weenieism. Maybe I didn't pay attention in the past, but this year you seem to really lay it out there in all directions, all options and if something tosses a red flag in your mind even if it's small you throw it out there. I appreciate that, I know everyone else does too. It's pretty rare, and I have a ton of respect for you for doing it. I dunno Scott...I think this is so preposterous we have to at least notice it. It brings the qpf in a way the model itself hasn't figured out. Crazy! Eh, not that worried about it either way my friend. If you look at the high res twister maps, it's got the micro low coming onshore of west florida...yeah I know it's a convective complex....it kind of plays with that and I think they really disrupt it's surface low presentation. BUT, I don't think there's any doubt the mid/high level moisture will initially miss us SE as Bouchard said. Then we have to wait for the low to wrap up. This may be where the NAM is falling down, not developing that low enough, but again, two stage storm on these models and the first stage whiffs. If you follow the NAM through there's three things going on: 1st: The feature that is now on the coast driving all the convection comes up and misses WIDE right. GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM et all...show this IMO to varying degrees...some are a glancing blow that's harder than others. I think this is maybe a lock, will be a lock post rest of suite (ie, that for the most part the meat and potatoes of the first pulse doesnt clobber us...not saying it won't be something). 2nd. The feature in the eastern GOM, rides NNE into the SE US. THIS starts to develop as it continues to move NE, the moisture expands as it comes across NC. Spin it through at 700, this feature ends up being rolled into the developing comma head. 3rd. M/L main moves across draws in #2, this is the entirety of the NAM solution, 3 moving parts. No comment on accuracy, if it's falling down it's with part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I got this from another site. Here is your issue SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0132Z WED JAN 26 2011 THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...68 CONUS...4 MEXICAN...AND 3 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... TBW/72210 - BALLOON FORCED DOWN BY ICING CONDITION...10151.APX/72634 - CODE 10159. MZT/76458 - CODE 10159. CWD CONTINUES UNTIL 26/0500Z. GOES-E RSO ONGOING UNTIL 26/0315Z. $$ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Whole lotta low level moisture down on the South Coast tonight. Westerly and Newport are both reporting freezing fog with temps of 16 and 19. But I gotta wonder who's manning these reporting stations....because both are reporting visibilities of a quarter mile and it's not that low where I'm at Yeah it went poof here when temps dropped below about 22/23 but it was slick as all heck on the roads. I'm not sure I've ever had freezing fog here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00z GFS is going to crush southern AND central New England I sure as hell hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Tried to plug us on the livestream and called it eastern lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I got this from another site. Here is your issue Here's the message spaced...TBW is Tampa Bay. May well play into part 2 above...too weak with that 2nd stage maybe because it didn't get the right idea on what's going on in the eastern GOM? Makes sense to me. When you talk about bad luck...12 hours ago the El Paso ob would have been right near/under key s/w features...now this...right under the complex/features in the Florida area....doh! NOUS42 KWNO 260135 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0132Z WED JAN 26 2011 THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...68 CONUS...4 MEXICAN...AND 3 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... TBW/72210 - BALLOON FORCED DOWN BY ICING CONDITION...10151. APX/72634 - CODE 10159. MZT/76458 - CODE 10159. CWD CONTINUES UNTIL 26/0500Z. GOES-E RSO ONGOING UNTIL 26/0315Z. $$ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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