Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You could see the convective issues right from the start. It throws off the entire run. The NAM cant handle the strong southern storms Can you show me where it's having problems right from the start? I just got back, curious as to what hours/where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Out through 27hr, not a complete miss. Precip working into SW CT A few flakes...nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 500 low looks better on this run, then any of the NAM runs I've seen. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 And at the surface its the worst....... Which makes me suspect it, especially when it's scooting a low way ne at hr 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 take a look at the initialized simulated radar compared to what is being seen across the south right now. This thing can't handle convection for sht. There are hundreds of square miles of 40+ and higher DBZ returns. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 30 hours...flurries to the BOS up to NH border almost, light snow S coast of SNE....MD eastern shore and southern NJ gets a nice thump. What a piece of doodoo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 OMG, Noyes is crushing the NAM Calling it out... What's Noyes reasoning? Which hours/when does it go wrong? It was the first model to show the split in moisture which...slowly they all came around too. Again he may be right, I'll wait for the rest of the suite, but this wasn't unforeseen. Burbank FTW Not yet. We get crunched after 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can you show me where it's having problems right from the start? I just got back, curious as to what hours/where. take a look at the initialized simulated radar compared to what is being seen across the south right now. This thing can't handle convection for sht. There are hundreds of square miles of 40+ and higher DBZ returns. Any thoughts? this is what I'm seeing wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SLP at 6H Can you show me where it's having problems right from the start? I just got back, curious as to what hours/where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Burbank FTW Back this up with some sound logic, otherwise I delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Which makes me suspect it, especially when it's scooting a low way ne at hr 21. Its not right, It having issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You folks have to get on the Matt Noyes livestream... It's like Rev Kev and Tip have mind-melded He'd better be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 33 hours, ACK in heavy snow, moderate up to BOS/SE MA, light up to 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Back this up with some sound logic, otherwise I delete it. 00z NAM largely misses us. Just commenting on the 00z Nam. I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What's Noyes reasoning? Which hours/when does it go wrong? It was the first model to show the split in moisture which...slowly they all came around too. Again he may be right, I'll wait for the rest of the suite, but this wasn't unforeseen. Not yet. We get crunched after 27 hours. One man's crunched is another man's 1/2-1/hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Oz Nam 30 hr shows BOOM over Ct/ RI/ Mass south of the pike on simulated reflectivity. 1st mesoscale banding over far eastern PA/ Delmarva/ NJ dies off, with new band over SE New England. Looks good to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Matt Noyes is just baffled/fired up over the NAM...pure entertainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i didn't necessarily expect the surface features to make some huge shift NW...but that surface prog is *not* what i expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You folks have to get on the Matt Noyes livestream... It's like Rev Kev and Tip have mind-melded He'd better be right I've learned this year not to speak in absolutes. I suspect he's going to find the same thing. 33 hours, ACK in heavy snow, moderate up to BOS/SE MA, light up to 495 Yep, it's coming Weathafella, it's just a miss with the right jab, then it will hit us squarely with the left hook I think. wow. As you said earlier, at least it's colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 WT FLYING F? 36 hours, heavy snow cape up to PYM, snowing pretty good BOS up to Cape Ann and back to eastern SE ORH cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Which makes me suspect it, especially when it's scooting a low way ne at hr 21. This storm is bringing back nightmares of 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It gets se mass pretty good, but Ray would have a fit.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 In the end, an inverted trof kind of does the deed. Gotta hand it to NAM for originality.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I've learned this year not to speak in absolutes. I suspect he's going to find the same thing. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ACK and the cape get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 wow looked good then went to hell!! Matt noyes is tearing the nam apart haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This storm is bringing back nightmares of 2/10/10. I actually thought about that, sort of relying for the 500 low to come through. I think the NAM is off its rocker, but I hate seeing those solutions. If the GFS stays put or even moves a hair nw, I'll feel better. At least the mid level features actually looked better on this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 link to matt noyes? It's not his twitter I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 link to matt noyes? It's not his twitter I see http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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