leesun Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 still suffering from convective nausea though. Don't like the placement of the SLP's wow this run is going to be much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Methnks you get buried...and end up beating me by a whisker. Seriously I like where you sit tonight despite the silly guidance. One day Mike will believe... I'm still holding out hope I can have enough reason to cancel my trip to nyc for an afternoon meeting tomorrow. I want them to have a warning just so I can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyone have the 00Z NAM past 12hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 WTH is this new DGEX fetish? It feels lonely, plus gives good weenie maps (I guess) Someday we will live in it's wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Matt Noyes is livestreaming. NAM is farther east and slightly weaker thru 15 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You're in the top 10 for quotes from this storm, but Ray's one about the seal farting affecting the NAM is still getting the gold. Danm...I had second thoughts and deleted the post.......lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Methnks you get buried...and end up beating me by a whisker. Seriously I like where you sit tonight despite the silly guidance. One day Mike will move to the Arctic highlands in the Yurt Pete builds for Pickles... No flights for this storm Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18Z wed, Precip just making it to LI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The thing is that the BOX nws office is chock full of great scientists. They may night post here often (besides turtle and JoeD) but I would challenge anyone to to find a better forecast office when it comes to forecasting winter weather. The goal is to get the forecast right, not rile up the weenies with "interesting" afd's. lol. Walt was unique as they come. Tonights AFD was superior, strange WSWarnings though, first time I have not see Windham with Providence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyone have the 00Z NAM past 12hrs? Twisterdata out to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM may be taking the convection and the low OTS. Jackpot 3-6 in WV ....OY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 As expected in the end of the last thread the new NAM is attempting to back off on the strung out look at least through 18 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Methnks you get buried...and end up beating me by a whisker. Seriously I like where you sit tonight despite the silly guidance. One day Mike will believe... Could happen. I'm counting on the final hours taking this thing NW of the much modeled BM track. I don't hink it has to come that far NW to put the east slope in a far flung deformation band. I can envision a stout band banked up against the east slope wringing out every flake possible. That said, the current 4-8" outlook is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 At 21 hours.....it develops the little low strung out center 200 miles off the coast of VA/MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol....OTS...looks like little or no snow north of Philly...and I'm not kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What a stretched out mess...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I can write the AFD, but what I CAN'T do is derive the omega equation on the white board in the old met lab at 1 am on a fri night while half in the bag. Stupid Kappa house always got me in trouble.... NAM looks like its still bonkers with its surface depiction grabbing on some piece of convection at 21 Z way east. Focusing on 500 mb evolution for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 OMG, Noyes is crushing the NAM Calling it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol....OTS...looks like little or no snow north of Philly...and I'm not kidding. Lol Awt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks horrible. Looks like by the time the low gets anywhere near us it starts getting pulled OTS taking most precip with it. This really doesn't even look plausible. the Never Accurate Model strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Circular file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 DC gets light to moderate, Philly light....flurries for Joisy...nada north. I could be misreading this but I don't think I am...ull way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 500 low looks better on this run, then any of the NAM runs I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Burbank FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You could see the convective issues right from the start. It throws off the entire run. The NAM cant handle the strong southern storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Out through 27hr, not a complete miss. Precip working into SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 500 low looks better on this run, then any of the NAM runs I've seen. And at the surface its the worst....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 As expected in the end of the last thread the new NAM is attempting to back off on the strung out look at least through 18 hours... It is? It totally misses us now with the first pulse of moisture Pete Bouchard style. I like my premise of the first pulse missing and we have to wait for the CCB/comma head. I no longer think there is any doubt. I'm back from the gym...sorry for screwing around the ghost of Kevin got me as he was falling asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 DC gets 4-6 in the end but this one is a disaster. Flurries almost to HVN at 27 hours...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 06z Thurs Snow makes it into SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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