Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco VI


ConvectiveSolutions

Recommended Posts

I think you guys are in the 2nd maxima zone. I would have you in the 8-14 inch zone..with the caveat there could be more if the banding sits over you which it typically loves to do

I'm expecting 24-36" but if I get rooked and only get 4-8" it still gives me a 3 day take of 8-12". Snowpack is nice and deep and as long as it just keeps on snowing I'm a happy man.Today, Wed/Thurs, this weekend, more beyond.... Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 808
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The problem is also that the NAM and GFS are the most "accessible", so we see a lot of forecasts relying on their output with zero consideration of the foreign models, or even GEFS.

Not saying everyone, and most mets know better

You get what you pay for.

It amazes me anyone could do this professionally and not examine nearly everything, whether or not you disregard it at times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I'm getting some sleep tonight.. Tomorrow night will be tough to get more than 4-5 hrs. Here's to the Euro FTW

Night Kevin!

---

Someone asked about the nam at 0z. I think its 3 weak low scenario is plausible now that we can actually see where it's coming from in the gulf through 12z. The twister maps show it at 12z east of sc...micro low. Many mesos have some similar theme. The globals all just have a broad low pressure with no real defined points. They then blow up all the others in favor of one off Delaware with maybe some elongation ene. I'm not going to say it's right I'm just saying it's now possible at least to see what the mesos are doing. They may be wrong in handling these two meso lows but they do exist and aren't a model byproduct at this point. The globals had it too just less focused. Ones right ones wrong after 12z

It's not the low that's off GA now it's the one coming in from the eastern gulf that was the major difference between the globals and mesos, jmho.

I don't know what to think but it'll be fun to watch the 0z. If the nam stays with the same theme of an elongated structure for the reasons above I'll be on board. My guess is there's a compromise with less play for the eastern extension but that it's still there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't edit on the cell.

What it comes down to is this...tip hit it right on the head ten hours ago.....it's either too much of a good thing on the nam/mesos....too much detail and they're freaking over inconsequential micro lows...or they are hitting it mostly out of the park because of it. It can still come nw and maintain the same idea fwiw.

Hues Corp Rock the boat playing on Pandora as I lift.... I shouldn't rock the snow boat

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't edit on the cell.

What it comes down to is this...tip hit it right on the head ten hours ago.....it's either too much of a good thing on the nam/mesos....too much detail and they're freaking over inconsequential micro lows...or they are hitting it mostly out of the park because of it. It can still come nw and maintain the same idea fwiw.

Hues Corp Rock the boat playing on Pandora as I lift.... I shouldn't rock the snow boat

A little vintage 70's disco yrs tune

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm expecting 24-36" but if I get rooked and only get 4-8" it still gives me a 3 day take of 8-12". Snowpack is nice and deep and as long as it just keeps on snowing I'm a happy man.Today, Wed/Thurs, this weekend, more beyond.... Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter.

Big winter is here Peter, unreal, 50" on the ct shore before feb and two more storms left in Jan, this is 95-96 except colder without the Jan thaw. Its laughable looking around at all the snow, and snow depth.

The kids wife and I are having a blast, outside fun FTW every night.

Enjoy the storm tom night!:snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

By the way, the euro weenie maps did have a break or at least more disorganized look to precip like what's shown now on radar. I think it was after 12z and esp 15z that it organized.

Models have shown lots of convection in the gulf, so not sure it will pump up heights all that much, but it could have some affect. That's a ton of lightning down there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...