HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, I am certainly tired after Noyes watching, hopefulyy learning something from him and numerous posters here... Still hoping for 5-7" here as per NWS and several Boston mets. Really weird model swings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am going with 6-8" for imby I wouldn't bank on the NW shift here as in general things have been trending in the other direction. I wouldn't even be surprised if I don't see 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 As Joan Baez would sing in the song" Dixie" The night....they made the Euro stand down.....all the weenies were pouting....the night....the NAM took over the town.....all the mets were shouting.....na...nanananana...nananananananah....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think the biggest red flag for this system is that no one is posting anything here this morning. Or maybe people were just so 'wowed' at the state of the unioni address they can't muster any words today. No--that's not it. Must be the system. To what degree do folks think this will involve a lot of now-casting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, just woke up and saw the disaster 00z suite...glad I wasn't up for it. I think they swung too far east....looks like 06z came back west a tad. Looking at WV and radar, I think it'll come back a little more at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM may not be correct with this either. Truth may lie in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM may not be correct with this either. Truth may lie in the middle. But its signal (if in the end was correct which looks quite possible) was astoundingly astute considering how "out there" it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, just woke up and saw the disaster 00z suite...glad I wasn't up for it. I think they swung too far east....looks like 06z came back west a tad. Looking at WV and radar, I think it'll come back a little more at 12z. That's my hope...lol. Look at this first batch of precip. Glad to see 06z bounce back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the radar shows just a lot of banded virga and it isnt really snowing that hard even in most of jersey where it is snowing. i am guessing the wall of stratiform precip is going to explode this evening, lol at all those one to two inch qpf maps of not too long ago lol at all the worry about taint up to and past the pike..even in the cap district but most of all lol at the euro last night and while i had an uneasy feeling about this one the last two days...reading the posts on here started to make me think this thing was going to live up to the hype before I went to bed last night. I am so glad I did not stay up for that embarrasment. lol at the cutter runs...what has happened with modeling recently?? It seemed like forecasts were better back in the snowy winters of 00-01, 02-03 and 95-96 and even 04-05 although the jan blizzard was not all that well forecast for western areas once the clipper part phased with the developing low over the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That's my hope...lol. Look at this first batch of precip. Glad to see 06z bounce back a bit. yeah, glad to see that. My 24-36" call is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, just woke up and saw the disaster 00z suite...glad I wasn't up for it. I think they swung too far east....looks like 06z came back west a tad. Looking at WV and radar, I think it'll come back a little more at 12z. Yeah that disco was ugly and mostly wrong..Glad I 'm not part of the late nite stuff. Was kind of sorry to see people bad mouthing you and other mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 10-16 looks like a very responsible call based on everything we have in front of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol at the cutter runs...what has happened with modeling recently?? It seemed like forecasts were better back in the snowy winters of 00-01, 02-03 and 95-96 and even 04-05 although the jan blizzard was not all that well forecast for western areas once the clipper part phased with the developing low over the bm. You obviously didn't follow the models much back then, lol. I think almost every storm in '00-'01 was modeled as a whiff or scraper at 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scooter..tell us the Euro ens don't agree with the torch cutter next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah that disco was ugly and mostly wrong..Glad I 'm not part of the late nite stuff. Was kind of sorry to see people bad mouthing you and other mets Didn't see that...who bad mouthed me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 10-16 looks like a very responsible call based on everything we have in front of us No 10-16 out this way.. not even close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Didn't see that...who bad mouthed me? In a back handed sort of way. noone did directly..but some things were insinuated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah, glad to see that. My 24-36" call is looking better. Lol--getting out that yardstick again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 In a back handed sort of way. noone did directly..but some things were insinuated I didn't really see that, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No 10-16 out this way.. not even close.. 10% of that range for western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah that disco was ugly and mostly wrong..Glad I 'm not part of the late nite stuff. Was kind of sorry to see people bad mouthing you and other mets I didn't see that but again I went to bed prior to the Euro (thankfully...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If someone sees Will ask him if he thinks the split moisture will make a difference at this latitude? I hope he's alright...odd for him to vanish esp. as we rolled through this minefield of horrors tonight. I'm going to bed with the idea of 4-8/6-12 here but I'm also mindful of the meso models that totally whiff the area. No, it really doesn't...its about the track of the ULL for the 100th time. You can track every piece of convection in the gulf all you want, but you get heavy snow from a ULL tracking just underneath us. It was kicked further SE by our northern stream kicker on the 00z runs. 06z trying to bring it back some. I'm glad you got your 2 piece system though, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scooter..tell us the Euro ens don't agree with the torch cutter next week It brings the low over se mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scooter..tell us the Euro ens don't agree with the torch cutter next week WTF difference does it make. It appears the Euro, its ensembles and the kitchen sink screwed up this oncoming event badly. I say you get 5-10 and I get 4-8. Euro had us both 12+ up through 12Z yesterday. And my 5-10/4-8 calls may be too high. Next week is a SWFE. Today was low running up close enough to turn most to taint on the Euro a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 10% of that range for western MA. 10% for 8" or more.. Whatever.. I'll take what i can get. I just wish that when people throw out amounts they be more specific as to where these amounts may end up. The guy from tolland always makes it sound like everyone is going to get dumped on.. in a major way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It brings the low over se mass. Better than the op...but that one looks ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 10% of that range for western MA. 50% of that range for the Boston-ORH area, maybe 75% for the BDL-PVD-PYM-Cape area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some are acting like we're getting an inch or two. It won't be an HECS...those are rare and all the ingredients have to come together. This never had the vibe. This will be a good snow event for many in sne. esp near and se of a LWM-ORH-HFD line. There still looks like we could see some great banding that will probably dump on somebody, pretty hard. It's difficult to determine but it could be se mass or all the way back to ORH. Nothing wrong with a warning event. I thought 6-12 yesterday for BOS and I'll be happy if we make 6-10. Lets how the trends look today. The NAM and GFS both increased qpf at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You obviously didn't follow the models much back then, lol. I think almost every storm in '00-'01 was modeled as a whiff or scraper at 72h. Youre right back then I just watched the news and for the most part the weather forecasts seemed pretty good. Although I did model watch for the storm of the century that wasnt for the mid atlantic and southern new england that was just a big snowstorm for interior areas and mostly central/northern new england. I remember the state of emergency declared as light snow and sleet fell...the 20-36 inch forecasts lol where I lived in central ct..and then we wound up with a foot of cement lol and it was just like a big late winter storm lol TWC had crews out in nyc lol and they had like an inch lol....you can still find some of the feet progged accum maps and forecasts for the mid atlantic and sne on youtube Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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