40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What a terrible run.....the overruning event near the start of the Feb is a torching rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What a terrible run.....the overruning event near the start of the Feb is a torching rain storm. Even for the Lakes Region of NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 every one ct area will be near 10 inches of snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It was the NAM that first indicated a day or so ago that we'd see a big moisture split off the Carolinas. As it came into focus the RGEM jumped on board and eventually the GGEM too. By this morning it was only the UK and EURO that were stiill hanging on, but the Euro had backed down from the HECS from last night. The NAM has moved around some, but it's been steadfast in this being a storm for SNE. The Meso's appear to have done pretty well based on all this, the globals lost so far. The NAM had the right idea, but not always the right expression of the idea.....in the end drying, multiple s/w's and therefore an elongated low. Yeah I was plugging a close to the coast track 2-3 days ago but once I saw the RGEM was much more subdued than the GGEM I realized the mesos were catching onto some convection the globals, especially the ggem, were missing. There's a hilarious 3am post of me on here two nights ago when I realized the RGEM was way weaker/south of the GGEM at 48 hours.. that was sort of the moment of realization for me that this might have convection issues and that I was going to be totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What a terrible run.....the overruning event near the start of the Feb is a torching rain storm. How did the weekend clipper look Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Even for the Lakes Region of NH? They get 2-4" before the changeover....rain goes clear up to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well that sucked. Back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 How did the weekend clipper look Ray? The adjective that comes to mind: inconsequencial. Trough goes negative, but it's really broad.....I think we'd want to see it sharpen up to try to get something more than flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 every one ct area will be near 10 inches of snowfall Hey, Noyes...what's up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What I would have done to verify the EURO from 24 hrs ago.....think of how often the 60 hr EURO is dead-nuts on....Christ. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 you have look at where the heavy snow bands form and set up . They have many times set where models didnt show them and likely further north west of where the models show them . most storms this winter had more snow than forecast by models . you have look where the low is forming too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 you have look at where the heavy snow bands form and set up . They have many times set where models didnt show them and likely further north west of where the models show them . most storms this winter had more snow than forecast by models . you have look where the low is forming too . You do have a point.....we have seen often times that there will be a secondary maxima in association with the outter deformation band, where relatively paltry QPF was modeled....the only thing is that this is no longer a bomb....it's a strung-out crack wh**e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i disagree with that not a bomb and even some weather people say it is still like guy from new york city that i listen too he looks at the weather pattern not just models , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i disagree with that not a bomb and even some weather people say it is still like guy from new york city that i listen too he looks at the weather pattern not just models , We'll see what happens....will be fun to watch. I'll expect 4" and hope for 8". I think 3-8" will be my final call. BTW, Bob is to start ALL storm threads from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gnight all... nice littler refresher to our historic snowpack on the way. This was an exciting tease for the big one that continues to elude us. In any case, incredible winter continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 6z NAM is a huge improvement for most of us. At least that means the far SE solutions that basically nearly completely miss SNE aren't going to happen. Basically in agreement with the GFS, actually a little better for SE areas. Upped me from .4" to .9" HFD from .2 to .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Quick glance before sleep... 6Z NAM with the now certain 2 separated pieces of energy... the 1st piece misses SNE entirely, the 2nd piece ticked NW quite... back to 6-12" for the southeastern 1/3 of Mass, CT, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Stayed up for the 6z NAM. Glad I did. It's heading NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thoughts on snow totals in Boston? Stayed up for the 6z NAM. Glad I did. It's heading NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 6z NAM is a huge improvement for most of us. At least that means the far SE solutions that basically nearly completely miss SNE aren't going to happen. Basically in agreement with the GFS, actually a little better for SE areas. Upped me from .4" to .9" HFD from .2 to .5 I still think this storm is going to trend much farther NW; the 6z NAM closes off the H5 and H7 lows, and the 7z RUC keeps the surface low tucked into the NJ coast. Looking at the radar, there's clearly overrunning precipitation that has a good shot at making it to NYC metro by daybreak, contrary to what the 6z NAM and 0z GFS showed, where the banding stalled out and died over Northern Virginia. I'm sticking to my 8-14" call for Westchester despite the recent QPF reductions from some modeling. Models always have a tendency to reduce QPF the night before a storm; it happened in the Boxing Day Blizzard and the 1/12 Miller A, and then we got crushed. The NW trend is in effect this season, so I'm watching this one carefully. We're talking about a juicy Miller A Gulf Low, it's not going to give you .3" QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So if your prediction holds, what do you say for Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I still think this storm is going to trend much farther NW; the 6z NAM closes off the H5 and H7 lows, and the 7z RUC keeps the surface low tucked into the NJ coast. Looking at the radar, there's clearly overrunning precipitation that has a good shot at making it to NYC metro by daybreak, contrary to what the 6z NAM and 0z GFS showed, where the banding stalled out and died over Northern Virginia. I'm sticking to my 8-14" call for Westchester despite the recent QPF reductions from some modeling. Models always have a tendency to reduce QPF the night before a storm; it happened in the Boxing Day Blizzard and the 1/12 Miller A, and then we got crushed. The NW trend is in effect this season, so I'm watching this one carefully. We're talking about a juicy Miller A Gulf Low, it's not going to give you .3" QPF... and that i believe is what is the key to the boom/bust models outputs we need this to close off at h5 and h7 and then we got a shot for some high totals........just give the banding a chance. weenies are lining up to go diving in the river with cement boots on........nope Fook the "king" crapping the bed. stick to your guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 At this point I could care less if we got a foot or not even a flake. This whole week of model watching was just a big waste of time. EPIC FAIL EPIC FAIL EPIC FAIL GROTESQUE I WONDER IF THIS IS HOW THE EPIC WINTER STARTS TO UNRAVEL LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 and that i believe is what is the key to the boom/bust models outputs we need this to close off at h5 and h7 and then we got a shot for some high totals........just give the banding a chance. weenies are lining up to go diving in the river with cement boots on........nope Fook the "king" crapping the bed. stick to your guns. Exactly...QPF is the least stable parameter for the models to predict, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. Just 24 hours ago, the ECM showed 1.75" of QPF in NYC, which has now been cut to .75"...this drastic of a change makes little sense given that the system's track hasn't changed much at all. Additionally, the 6z NAM shows a closed 500mb low directly SE of NYC moving towards SNE, which is a signal for heavy deformation banding. While I think 1.75" QPF is a stretch given how fast the system moves, I could easily see 12" amounts in this area and SNE given the set-up. Big Gulf Lows rarely disappoint, and the first batch of precipitation looks to be making a beeline north. This is why I'm sticking to my guns. At this point I could care less if we got a foot or not even a flake. This whole week of model watching was just a big waste of time. EPIC FAIL EPIC FAIL EPIC FAIL GROTESQUE I WONDER IF THIS IS HOW THE EPIC WINTER STARTS TO UNRAVEL LOL Why? The storm hasn't happened yet. And it's all a learning experience anyway. The more storms you see play out, the better prepared you are to understand how a given situation will verify and how these Nor'easters work. It's a cool process given the connection between the H5/H7 levels and what banding occurs at the surface. So it's not all about the final total, which isn't decided anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 At this point I could care less if we got a foot or not even a flake. This whole week of model watching was just a big waste of time. EPIC FAIL EPIC FAIL EPIC FAIL GROTESQUE I WONDER IF THIS IS HOW THE EPIC WINTER STARTS TO UNRAVEL LOL settle down jr. not a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 KEV WHEN YOU WAKE UP> please don't read the debacle from the 0z models last nite i.e 10pm to 1am period. please! treat this as a now cast event. watch to see if the 12z nam closes of 5h 7h again consistently. then look for banding to develop and to "steal" 10 fluffy inches+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 weenie in hand....tossin all models cept the 6z nam and 6z nzuck. chuck em fools. wow models busted BAD on temps .....it's 7.3 F christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 weenie in hand....tossin all models cept the 6z nam and 6z nzuck. chuck em fools. wow models busted BAD on temps .....it's 7.3 F christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 did ukie and ggem crap the bed.....? cause that is what the ncep was riding they tossed the euro last evening anyway hot off the press MEANWHILE SFC LOW PRES CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL REORGANIZE JUST OFF THE SRN MID-ATL COAST THIS MORNING AND ADVANCE RAPIDLY NNEWD UP ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE THEN MOVING MORE NEWD OFF NEW ENGLAND AND TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY THU. ALREADY DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT AND STG WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF PCPN INVOLVING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. ALREADY SEEING A DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD FEATURE WITH MORE DYNAMICALLY ENHANCED PCPN OCCURRING BACK INTO THE TN VLY AS THE OVERALL SYS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY/DEEPEN. AGAIN...A VERY TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH THIS SYS AS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ALSO THE INTERIOR OF THE CNTRL/NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR HVY SNOW WITH THIS EAST COAST STORM. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HPC SUGGESTS A CORE SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...WITH LESSER AMTS IN A TIGHT GRADIENT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DUE TO OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE...AND ALSO INTO PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MSTR FETCH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 if ML's close i wonder where the "pivot point" will be i think philly ne to N NJ is a nice area for some banding later tonite.....over to the zuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.