TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Stick your arm out of the snowbank and trip him as he goes for his jog at 4:30am. Ultimate prank would be to take a drive down to tolland and c4 the piles. Have you ever seen a grown man cry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The nogaps usually is the farthest southeast solution of all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NOGAPS is afraid to print out 0Z... i've been refreshing for the past half hour waiting for the fooking NOGAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NOGAPS is afraid to print out 0Z... Go to bed Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd go as far as saying the GEFS was a disaster up here. Slowly bailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This feels like the 2nd Quarter of the Pats/Jets game. Unstoppable heading in. Win seems like a given... then we stop making the plays. It just doesn't feel right... then all falls apart. Can't get too excited about QPF maps that look like a Jakson Pollack painting. But no rope and chair here - good winters are full of nickle and dime events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The nogaps usually are the farthest southeast solution of all models Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i've been refreshing for the past half hour waiting for the fooking NOGAPS... Never a good idea... in any season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Never a good idea... in any season of course not lol but it's crazy when the typically SE bias on the model has one of the more NW sol'ns tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Really? Absolutely. It's been that way ever since I've looked at it and that's a long time. It's its' bias of the model. However, if it is northwest of the NAM and GFS then that would be very rare and would be a warning flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Noyes says they're 60-70 miles NW Not really. And I'm not sure forecasting off ensembles is a great idea in this short a time range (i mean the GFS ensembles) He has every right to criticize me, but not in that manner. Ray, I wouldn't bring it up here most have no idea what you're talking about and it's your personal business. You said it yourself, you've grown as a person as we all do in life and that's all that matters to any of us, and all that should matter to you. I'll say the one thing I do not like is the armageddon CRAS actually looks like the NAM as far as what it tries to do with low. Did the MM5 come in? Been stuck for an hour or two. Oh man... just returned from a 3 hour hiatus hoping for an epic NAM cave, weenies flying, 12"+ philly north, 1-2' SNE... Oh man. First thoughts: 1) Messenger --- fantastic analysis, you nailed the issue of the split energy robbing moisture and shifting the baroclinic zone east 2) How could the EURO be so consistent, not blink once, and be so wrong 36 hours from go-time? 3) The headline for the lay public will be a week of "crying wolf" on this storm... will BOX actually remove the Winter Storm Warnings if the lighter solutions pan out? 4) It ain't over yet... fat lady is scheduled to perform at 1AM... Thanks, we'll see how it goes from here on out. I don't think the tricks are done. I like the RGEM outline for the heaviest stuff, where it places the .4/.5...will be a sharp gradient east of there. Not sure I really care that much about the Euro. That's cool. I get to sleep in til 10. Sweet dreams. I'll be watching letterman in Kevin's driveway if you need me. They are a little nw but not 60-70 miles. Still, better to see that they are a little nw. Yeah, but the couple of busts this year they were NW at this range too....only to be wrong. -- The WRF 1km is getting ready to do something in 24 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This feels like the 2nd Quarter of the Pats/Jets game. Unstoppable heading in. Win seems like a given... then we stop making the plays. It just doesn't feel right... then all falls apart. Can't get too excited about QPF maps that look like a Jakson Pollack painting. But no rope and chair here - good winters are full of nickle and dime events. Good point, especially since we have a clipper this weekend...and the GFS has a 1-2" thing Friday (although I don't know of other models showed this). Anyways hopefully the euro holds its own, but my guess is that it slides se a tick. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Absolutely. It's been that way ever since I've looked at it and that's a long time. It's its' bias of the model. Sorry I won't let you take the shovel and bury yourself. We've known this for 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not really. And I'm not sure forecasting off ensembles is a great idea in this short a time range (i mean the GFS ensembles) Ray, I wouldn't bring it up here most have no idea what you're talking about and it's your personal business. You said it yourself, you've grown as a person as we all do in life and that's all that matters to any of us, and all that should matter to you. Did the MM5 come in? Been stuck for an hour or two. Thanks, we'll see how it goes from here on out. I don't think the tricks are done. I like the RGEM outline for the heaviest stuff, where it places the .4/.5...will be a sharp gradient east of there. Not sure I really care that much about the Euro. Yeah, but the couple of busts this year they were NW at this range too....only to be wrong. -- The WRF 1km is getting ready to do something in 24 hours.... That's the banding that could be great for sne. Some of the meso models have this, which could be fun for some. QPF wouldn't matter under one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 27 hours from now it's rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Good point, especially since we have a clipper this weekend...and the GFS has a 1-2" thing Friday (although I don't know of other models showed this). Anyways hopefully the euro holds its own, but my guess is that it slides se a tick. Hopefully I'm wrong. I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 is that our WRF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scott, the post was only directed to a few of those who I'm closest with who do.....now that fool was bad mouthing Jay. lol What a sad soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Agreed Have you ordered your crow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The ARW version is a whiff, I'm not even going to show it. it's just ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd be pretty surprised if it doesn't tick SE. I agree, I just hope it doesn't go from 1.2" to 0.4". In any case, I'm out for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Have you ordered your crow? Its going to be shipped pending the 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The ARW version is a whiff, I'm not even going to show it. it's just ugly. That WRF model isn't done is it. Cause that would be a very nice hit. if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That's the banding that could be great for sne. Some of the meso models have this, which could be fun for some. QPF wouldn't matter under one of those. Yep, that's the great white hope. ARW whiffs for us, but I've thought most of the time the NMM version does better here...hope. Scott, the post was only directed to a few of those who I'm closest with who do.....now that fool was bad mouthing Jay. lol What a sad soul. I don't really know what happened just seeing the snippets here I'd not worry about it. Too bad Noyes couldnt get you the Ip for giggles. -- Nothing new from NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That WRF model isn't done is it. Cause that would be a very nice hit. if true. The alter ego of the NMM is a total disaster..the ARW. This is the worst it gets...this is the apex of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I agree, I just hope it doesn't go from 1.2" to 0.4". In any case, I'm out for good. Well, just for reference, the ECMWF 1" qpf line at 12z was positioned ~ NYC-HFD-FIT-PSM. We'll see how that trends. My prediction is that we'll see the 00z run go ~NYC-PVD-PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scott, the post was only directed to a few of those who I'm closest with who do.....now that fool was bad mouthing Jay. lol What a sad soul. I'm gonna PM you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 checking the weenie radar on the nam just to see where it goes to hell and it seems up through 12 the precip consistently moves nne and light echoes make it into our back yard but from 12 to 15 it basically halts and dries out the northern extent and moves everything due east. Guess we'll know by tomorrow morning when I wake up which direction this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just watching TMZ while cleaning up. They're talking about the veracity of wikipedia. I guess someone used it as a source reference....but they point out that for awhile last week someone changed it to say Abe Lincoln was killed by Heman...I guess some time passed before it was caught. That's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just watching TMZ while cleaning up. They're talking about the veracity of wikipedia. I guess someone used it as a source reference....but they point out that for awhile last week someone changed it to say Abe Lincoln was killed by Heman...I guess some time passed before it was caught. That's funny. Lol... Exactly the kind of post one would expect the night before one of the most (over)hyped snowstorms this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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