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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco VI


ConvectiveSolutions

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Well, it depends what your expectations are. If you are forecasting 6-12 for boston then I would be concerned a little. If you are banking on 8-16" then I would be concerned a lot.

That's what I was originally thinking earlier today. Felt that was an ok range. Didn't have the sack to go higher.

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DC storm. JB is going to bust extremely badly.

Kevin will be happy because face it...he sees the positive side of snow regardless of the amount. The telling side this this is falling apart is the fact that Will is not posting.

RGEM smokes us down here, ...think it was 25+ mm. NAM/GFS are a solid 5-10" I think we'll do okay here but one thing about the NAM as depicted that bugs me is we never really get under the great vv's.

Past results do not indictate future performance. Moral of the story for this winter.

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That's what I was originally thinking earlier today. Felt that was an ok range. Didn't have the sack to go higher.

I think that's fine then. I would feel ok in the 6-12 range right now too. No reason to change, like you said. Unless the EC lays an egg and has one of the worst busts in it's history.

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Lets relax a bit prior to the globals. We know how ****ty the americans are

The RGEM/GGEM continue to be fine. The RGEM fits into all the forecasts I've seen on TV, and the HPC QPF progs. The GGEM has not fit into that event horizon....and I know the CMC themselves has said inside of 48 go with the RGEM. Maybe that's bad this time...who knows.

I removed that link to the GGEM, it was posted below.

The UKMET is fine too, not the same solution as earlier but hits pretty hard to the south and east.

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RGEM smokes us down here, ...think it was 25+ mm. NAM/GFS are a solid 5-10" I think we'll do okay here but one thing about the NAM as depicted that bugs me is we never really get under the great vv's.

Past results do not indictate future performance. Moral of the story for this winter.

Yes...RGEM extends 25 mm (an inch) over the Cape in the 24 to 36 range. Hard to know what it is here but it is at least 15 and less than 25. Still quite good. But I kind of think the GFS/NAM is onto something....maybe a gut feeling.

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Yes...RGEM extends 25 mm (an inch) over the Cape in the 24 to 36 range. Hard to know what it is here but it is at least 15 and less than 25. Still quite good. But I kind of think the GFS/NAM is onto something....maybe a gut feeling.

I think one of the deals with the globals versus the regionals just might be some epic banding...and subsidence on the other side of that. The globals are spreading precip around more, but maybe the regionals have a better idea with some serious banding. It may not just be convective, which is why the RGEM/GGEM although fairly similar continue to differ on the QPF spread. The RGEM hammers a lot more in SE MA, and doesn't spread it as far NW.

Kind of like how the GFS was always too far NW with the .1ish in the old days.

Just a random thought out loud.

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