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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco VI


ConvectiveSolutions

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I don't know what to think. Sattelite shows the whole deal charging north. In the morning it maybe different. I'll say this, if NAM wins this battle, it will be an epic win for it and Barry Burbank. Barry's forecast right now by consensus looks good. Personally, I'm leery of this event. We can talk how upper air looks better till the cows come home. We live at the surface and the depiction stinks if correct.

Yeah me either. I can tell you this, very happy to not be Harvey right now...tough spot. I'll say this, I see a giant dry slot as everything gets shoved east then that second spiral band. That's what the NAM/GFS/UK all show now. The big question is does the second part wind up. We'll see.

Kudos to you for picking out the dual lows early on...let's see what happens

I was more convinced of the split nature to the moisture than the elongated lows. In all the snow euphoria I think a lot of people forgot previous years when these things happened with southern systems. Let's see how it plays out.

Harvey's still going with 5-10 128 south and 4-8 south coast and canal

His future cast deal shows 4.6" in bston, about 4-5" here, .4" in Orange, nothing out in western MA.

A 3-6" storm is nothing to be ashamed of. You'll enjoy it.

Zing.

Just in case you don't know..the RUC is a terrible model. especially past 3 hours.

Yeah but sometimes it's not bad....we'll see over the next hour or two.

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Strung out. This isn't happening folks.Look at the good stuff with a trajectory under us. The lagging stuff is less robust but snow is snow.

jerry even the 12z GFS gave us little precip from the WCB...this looks like a mostly CCB thing as the main 500mb vort approaches. We aren't getting that stuff over the Gulf Stream.

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A 3-6" storm is nothing to be ashamed of. You'll enjoy it.

What's your gut tell you? I just hate relying on dynamics to really get most of our snow. That's what I'm worried about. If this would move a little north, I think we'd be able to get into the better CCB, but worried it could stay just to the south of sne. However, I do like the 700 low position for around here. I don't know if you ever looked at the SPC wrf, but it does suggest 6-8 hrs of fun in eastern mass, I could see that. As I said earlier, we'll see what the Canadian and Euro want to do as this guy is a tricky one. I don't think I'd change anything until then, but I am concerned a little.

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jerry even the 12z GFS gave us little precip from the WCB...this looks like a mostly CCB thing as the main 500mb vort approaches. We aren't getting that stuff over the Gulf Stream.

Right...that's the big difference between last nights Euro...to some extent the 12z Euro/UK and all the others as of right now. that gets cut off entirely to the SE.

It looks like there will be a second s/w or whatever coming up with more moisture through the Carolinas....the hope would be that makes it further north which quite often they do...that's why we always seem to end up with the dry slot futher north too.

Not that worried but I'm coming at this from a different expectation level than most.

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But it robs the good stuff and makes this at best pedestrian. That is my point.

ha...for you guys with all the snow. For south coastal areas 4-8 or 6-12 is a big deal. But yes, all that moisture getting pinched off is what separates this from last nights 0z Euro, and this stuff tonight. Even the RGEM really loses most of it and has for a couple of runs.

I've read multiple times where the CMC has said "do not use the GGEM over the RGEM inside of 48 hours" and that they don't even use it, so for right now I'm interested in seeing the Euro then bed.

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What's your gut tell you? I just hate relying on dynamics to really get most of our snow. That's what I'm worried about. If this would move a little north, I think we'd be able to get into the better CCB, but worried it could stay just to the south of sne. However, I do like the 700 low position for around here. I don't know if you ever looked at the SPC wrf, but it does suggest 6-8 hrs of fun in eastern mass, I could see that. As I said earlier, we'll see what the Canadian and Euro want to do as this guy is a tricky one. I don't think I'd change anything until then, but I am concerned a little.

Well, it depends what your expectations are. If you are forecasting 6-12 for boston then I would be concerned a little. If you are banking on 8-16" then I would be concerned a lot.

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Good analysis messenger regardless of the outcome.

Thanks. Stormus interruptus on the NAM is that trailing weak feature near the west coast of Florida. That'll be what defines how big/strong/sheared this storm is.

Sport-2-07.jpg

Poor Ray.

I'm out. Euro will either be king or sh*t the bed. It's on its own if it holds serve relatively.

I think it's going to cave towards the others but still probably on the more extreme side of what we've seen so far.

Well, it depends what your expectations are. If you are forecasting 6-12 for boston then I would be concerned a little. If you are banking on 8-16" then I would be concerned a lot.

What about lollies of 20" and snow into later Thursday?

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