Bryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 After watching Matt, you almost begin to feel sympathetic towards TV Mets and how much the struggle with their gut feelings and what the models say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 He needs to lay of the diet coke...flippin out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, this does absolutely blow if it comes to pass....record snowpack cancel because the only places getting a decent storm have less. that does absolutely blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The fact the Stony Brook MM5 early does not look like its going to follow the NAM is about a big a red flag the NAM is smokin the good stuff despite what the UKMET says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gotta say, I love the change in attitude in these threads lately. A month ago and this thread would be a disaster...seems like everybody is pretty "meh" rather than upset. Disagree - the amount of fear in here is silly right now. Noyes lovefest turned into American gasps. They've been doing this all week. We expected what, big hits from them? Euro will be fine. It has been how consistent this week? It may not end up like last night, but widespread 6-12, some 12+. All will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Canadian and euro should be interesting. It's still a good storm for BOS points south, but the concern is there. That ULL I think needs to gain a little more latitude. The RGEM didn't really change at all. There were trends at 18z...NOGAPs etc with the sheared deal...what we have now is a dry slot wrappings towards us versus the euro solutions of old. You can see on the UK though...there's hints of a save OR I should say hints of maybe where it failed. See the 2nd spiral of higher RH? My only hope is maybe we've got more energy offshore Tampa coming up that can kind of bump all that NW later. It's plausible as it IS that moisture/energy that just crapped out in this run. You're right...we'll know for sure in 2 hours. But I think we all know what the EURO is going to do. Everything is converging on a moderate event because it's too progressive and it seems like most of our precip is reliant on the CCB, as opposed to the the CCB AND the stuff that whiffs initially to our east. I figured the 0z would deliver one way or the other. It always seems to be the case whether it's the GOM or off the SE Coast...once the convection has fired we see some stability. Just in advance, we have some problems. That said the RGEM didn't move much at all and is quite a bit different than the american/uk. What it isn't though is the 0z euro from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, this does absolutely blow if it comes to pass....record snowpack cancel because the only places getting a decent storm have less. Saturday's system could still surprise though I think you're still in the hunt even if this one disappoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 "the convective feedback" is showing up on the GFS too...too much lift is going shunted east. Messenger ftw. So... Toss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 "the convective feedback" is showing up on the GFS too...too much lift is going shunted east. Messenger ftw. Well we'll see how it goes. I noticed that as well. It also didn't seem to want to really kick back the height lines over New England as well. This storm is a tricky one and it's probably got a few tricks up its sleeve here and there. I do like the placement of the 700 low on the GFS. It's not all that bad for areas near and east of ORH. I would think the Canadian and Euro tick se, but who knows what this will do tomorrow. I'd probably hold onto my call until the rest of the suite comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I expect 8-16" until the EURO suggests otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 "the convective feedback" is showing up on the GFS too...too much lift is going shunted east. Messenger ftw. The funny thing is looking at the GFS it actually looks like real feedback...it's displaced the low in one run which is a big red flag to me, combined with the missing RAOB. I'm sold on this being a split system with a lot or/most of what's off the coast now deflecting underneath us...but I'm not sold on the 2nd part of the solution from the models. I think there well could be issues with part two...big coincidence that the feature that plays a big role in delivering the goods here happened to be right next to the crashed baloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So... Toss it? no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's sad when you look at the latest RUC model and see the first wave actually hit SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 03z Ruc even looks better than the 02z Ruc! Is this a red flag on what is going on with the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 hey what does our WRF do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I expect 8-16" until the EURO suggests otherwise. Thank you - if the Euro has been wrong so close/despite being so consistent that would be a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The funny thing is looking at the GFS it actually looks like real feedback...it's displaced the low in one run which is a big red flag to me, combined with the missing RAOB. I'm sold on this being a split system with a lot or/most of what's off the coast now deflecting underneath us...but I'm not sold on the 2nd part of the solution from the models. I think there well could be issues with part two...big coincidence that the feature that plays a big role in delivering the goods here happened to be right next to the crashed baloon. the crashed balloon would have probably been discarded anyway...balloons in thunderstorms are not really representative of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 03z Ruc even looks better than the 02z Ruc! Is this a red flag on what is going on with the other models? The RUC tends to be too far west late in its range, especially this season on most events so you probably want to see it pretty far west to increase the talk of tossing the NAM/UKMET solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I expect 8-16" until the EURO suggests otherwise. I'm starting to get nervous for areas further NW...this is the GFS and it doesn't appear to be suffering from the typical NAM nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the crashed balloon would have probably been discarded anyway...balloons in thunderstorms are not really representative of the area. Ok, speaking of crashing...this is one area you guys blow me away on....I appreciate that insight. The change in speed in the first 12-18 of the GFS is very, very odd to me. The GFS usually barely budges, so either it had a collosal error up until now, or somethings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 03Z Ruc looks really similar to the Euro's tucked in low solution! Just saying that it looks like it at hour 16, but even in the earlier panels, the ones that actually matter for the Ruc are trending better each run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I expect 8-16" until the EURO suggests otherwise. I would really love to wait until the Euro comes out before making any changes to my previous call but due to my back I really can't stay up longer so I'm just going to make adjustments with what we've seen so far. I think though my biggest adjustments will be back this way, not going to change much over NE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't know what to think. Sattelite shows the whole deal charging north. In the morning it maybe different. I'll say this, if NAM wins this battle, it will be an epic win for it and Barry Burbank. Barry's forecast right now by consensus looks good. Personally, I'm leery of this event. We can talk how upper air looks better till the cows come home. We live at the surface and the depiction stinks if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok, speaking of crashing...this is one area you guys blow me away on....I appreciate that insight. The change in speed in the first 12-18 of the GFS is very, very odd to me. The GFS usually barely budges, so either it had a collosal error up until now, or somethings up. Kudos to you for picking out the dual lows early on...let's see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Harvey's still going with 5-10 128 south and 4-8 south coast and canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 03Z Ruc looks really similar to the Euro's tucked in low solution! Just saying that it looks like it at hour 16, but even in the earlier panels, the ones that actually matter for the Ruc are trending better each run! I know. Sick isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I expect 8-16" until the EURO suggests otherwise. A 3-6" storm is nothing to be ashamed of. You'll enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 03Z Ruc looks really similar to the Euro's tucked in low solution! Just in case you don't know..the RUC is a terrible model. especially past 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't know what to think. Sattelite shows the whole deal charging north. In the morning it maybe different. I'll say this, if NAM wins this battle, it will be an epic win for it and Barry Burbank. Barry's forecast right now by consensus looks good. Personally, I'm leery of this event. We can talk how upper air looks better till the cows come home. We live at the surface and the depiction stinks if correct. Radar? Opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Even the clipper looks like dog dung. What an awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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