Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco VI


ConvectiveSolutions

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 808
  • Created
  • Last Reply

UKMET has bailed too. It's got the split QPF deal going on now too. (KEEP in mind I'm sure there's precip getting up to most of us...but this is not the same solution as earlier today at all)

My 99 just went to 99.9% on the idea of the split system...

All of your concerns look like they are coming to fruition. you ftw

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the reason why this is happening is because both lows are robbing each other's energy, you can't get a dominant low which should have been stronger and would have ran more north instead of OTS more. therefore you get a strung out system without much bang for the buck... :angry:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS and NAM went with similar solutions. 2 for 2. Time to consider downgrading potential. 3-6 with lollies of 7-8. Different however in far SE MA and the western cape where I'd paint 6-12.

The split theme was absolutely thumped by the NAM before any other model. RGEM had it too for the most part. Again assuming it comes to pass, but kind of what I was saying could be the case. I speak from being on the as( end of the NAM all year long....it does some weird stuff, but sometimes it's got the right idea even though it gets there in a crazy way. Again no idea how it plays out. 3 for 3 when you consider the UKIE which was probably the biggest hit of all at 12z.

Ok, gotta stay up for the Euro now :axe:. At least I can provide a play by play. Hate to be pessimistic, but I think It'll fold to the weaker/east scenario.

IF the missing ob is really significant it would effect most models, just keep that in mind.

What a garbage storm, everything's caving to the NAM

If what we see on the GFS/UK/NAM comes to fruition the meso's would have done pretty well.

Ugly, this is turning into a 4-8 storm for everyone.

Barry Burbank ftw

Not yet.

Why don't you guys start a Matt Noyes thread. lol

Flat wave jinx.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like this storm is a discombobulated mess that congeals too late and stays too far SE to give anyone a real deal snowstorm in SNE. Someone will do well with a 6 to 10 incher on the south coast somewhere, but this is more of a Mid-Atlantic event. The lack of northern stream involvement and the convective piece that runs way out in front are the real problems here. This storm has had some red flags for quite some time. Time to move on and start watching that clipper, as I believe that this has the potential to produce a nice surprise, especially if it passes south of LI and taps into Atlantic moisture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not yet.

You're right...we'll know for sure in 2 hours. But I think we all know what the EURO is going to do. Everything is converging on a moderate event because it's too progressive and it seems like most of our precip is reliant on the CCB, as opposed to the the CCB AND the stuff that whiffs initially to our east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All in all this storm doesn't look too bad, I just think too many people have had extremely high expectations with this one and from the start you knew this one was going to be very different...very sharp precip. gradients and not a very well organized storm. I feel real dumb for going with the totals I did earlier this morning given the uncertainty that was on hand. Time to cut back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gotta say, I love the change in attitude in these threads lately. A month ago and this thread would be a disaster...seems like everybody is pretty "meh" rather than upset.

Well, this does absolutely blow if it comes to pass....record snowpack cancel because the only places getting a decent storm have less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...