Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 UKMET has bailed too. It's got the split QPF deal going on now too. (KEEP in mind I'm sure there's precip getting up to most of us...but this is not the same solution as earlier today at all) My 99 just went to 99.9% on the idea of the split system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:48 AM, CoastalWx said: DC may get the most snow on this run. The good news is that Ray only needs a broom to clear the snow on Thursday morning. cmon now thats still a shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 We barely get the .25'' line up here...starting to think here. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 great.. I made it back home just in time to enjoy a 2-4" snow storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:50 AM, weathafella said: GFS and NAM went with similar solutions. 2 for 2. Time to consider downgrading potential. 3-6 with lollies of 7-8. Different however in far SE MA and the western cape where I'd paint 6-12. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:51 AM, messenger said: UKMET has bailed too. It's got the split QPF deal going on now too. (KEEP in mind I'm sure there's precip getting up to most of us...but this is not the same solution as earlier today at all) My 99 just went to 99.9% on the idea of the split system... All of your concerns look like they are coming to fruition. you ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:51 AM, dendrite said: Why don't you guys start a Matt Noyes thread. lol LOL really, this is a...something. Still warning criteria here no matter how this is shaking out. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What a mess. Looking forward to the post-mortem on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:51 AM, dendrite said: Why don't you guys start a Matt Noyes thread. lol :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Saturday still looking good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think the reason why this is happening is because both lows are robbing each other's energy, you can't get a dominant low which should have been stronger and would have ran more north instead of OTS more. therefore you get a strung out system without much bang for the buck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Will the Euro follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What if the Euro holds serve? Are we tossing it due to the other models going SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:50 AM, weathafella said: GFS and NAM went with similar solutions. 2 for 2. Time to consider downgrading potential. 3-6 with lollies of 7-8. Different however in far SE MA and the western cape where I'd paint 6-12. The split theme was absolutely thumped by the NAM before any other model. RGEM had it too for the most part. Again assuming it comes to pass, but kind of what I was saying could be the case. I speak from being on the as( end of the NAM all year long....it does some weird stuff, but sometimes it's got the right idea even though it gets there in a crazy way. Again no idea how it plays out. 3 for 3 when you consider the UKIE which was probably the biggest hit of all at 12z. On 1/26/2011 at 3:50 AM, BDR said: Ok, gotta stay up for the Euro now . At least I can provide a play by play. Hate to be pessimistic, but I think It'll fold to the weaker/east scenario. IF the missing ob is really significant it would effect most models, just keep that in mind. On 1/26/2011 at 3:50 AM, Boston-winter08 said: What a garbage storm, everything's caving to the NAM If what we see on the GFS/UK/NAM comes to fruition the meso's would have done pretty well. On 1/26/2011 at 3:50 AM, SouthCoastMA said: Ugly, this is turning into a 4-8 storm for everyone. Barry Burbank ftw Not yet. On 1/26/2011 at 3:51 AM, dendrite said: Why don't you guys start a Matt Noyes thread. lol Flat wave jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Jesus. Ekster even threatens going to Attlehole and the storms fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 2/10/10 rears its ugly head? Oof? Ec wl probably continue to tick SE...at least i hope its just a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like this storm is a discombobulated mess that congeals too late and stays too far SE to give anyone a real deal snowstorm in SNE. Someone will do well with a 6 to 10 incher on the south coast somewhere, but this is more of a Mid-Atlantic event. The lack of northern stream involvement and the convective piece that runs way out in front are the real problems here. This storm has had some red flags for quite some time. Time to move on and start watching that clipper, as I believe that this has the potential to produce a nice surprise, especially if it passes south of LI and taps into Atlantic moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:58 AM, dendrite said: Jesus. Ekster even threatens going to Attlehole and the storms fall apart. I dont understand it...when i worked at upton i brought what was quite possibly the best 3 winter string in nyc/LIhistory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Canadian and euro should be interesting. It's still a good storm for BOS points south, but the concern is there. That ULL I think needs to gain a little more latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is it possible that the current warnings will be lifted soon, or will they stay in place until the last possible minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:57 AM, messenger said: Not yet. You're right...we'll know for sure in 2 hours. But I think we all know what the EURO is going to do. Everything is converging on a moderate event because it's too progressive and it seems like most of our precip is reliant on the CCB, as opposed to the the CCB AND the stuff that whiffs initially to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gotta say, I love the change in attitude in these threads lately. A month ago and this thread would be a disaster...seems like everybody is pretty "meh" rather than upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 All in all this storm doesn't look too bad, I just think too many people have had extremely high expectations with this one and from the start you knew this one was going to be very different...very sharp precip. gradients and not a very well organized storm. I feel real dumb for going with the totals I did earlier this morning given the uncertainty that was on hand. Time to cut back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The one thing this has, is that it still seems like eastern areas get into some good banding..even on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 4:00 AM, Cold Miser said: Is it possible that the current warnings will be lifted soon, or will they stay in place until the last possible minute? Yup. Going to cancel over two models going SE. Totally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 4:02 AM, DomNH said: Gotta say, I love the change in attitude in these threads lately. A month ago and this thread would be a disaster...seems like everybody is pretty "meh" rather than upset. Well, this does absolutely blow if it comes to pass....record snowpack cancel because the only places getting a decent storm have less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is you guys... all members of the shriners clown parade.. all the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 4:03 AM, sbos_wx said: Yup. Going to cancel over two models going SE. Totally lol my point exactly. It seems that people get too invested in one or two runs, and all of the speculation that follows. Overnight may bring a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 3:59 AM, CoastalWx said: The Canadian and euro should be interesting. It's still a good storm for BOS points south, but the concern is there. That ULL I think needs to gain a little more latitude. "the convective feedback" is showing up on the GFS too...too much lift is going shunted east. Messenger ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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