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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco VI


ConvectiveSolutions

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Anyone listening Noyes' live internet broadcast tonight? He is absolutely destroying the NAM. http://www.mattnoyes...ngland_weather/

other points of his:

* strung out low solution is absurdity

* ride the euro hard

* someone could see 18", not willing to go on air with that yet

This.

I agree.

I'm gonna go with 8-16" IMBY. .....I reserve the right to alter that after seeing the 00z EURO, but that is it.

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Even the night before a big storm, the dead zone still blows. 00z models should be at least interesting...but hopefully in a good way. Want to break 6'', anything else is gravy.

I'm going 5-8 mby.

I'll pass time during DZ by shoveling the mound the plow left for me (they widened the street) and creating a path for tomorrow's oil delivery. Fun!

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Even the night before a big storm, the dead zone still blows. 00z models should be at least interesting...but hopefully in a good way. Want to break 6'', anything else is gravy.

One of these days NH will get nailed... 6-8 sounds about right for you... maybe a hair more for me, but I'm thinking 6-9" IMBY

D

E

A

D

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!

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This.

I agree.

I'm gonna go with 8-16" IMBY. .....I reserve the right to alter that after seeing the 00z EURO, but that is it.

BTW, if the Euro hadn't gone to the idea of having some gap in the moisture it'd still be forecasting 15" of snow in western MA. Ask Scott to post the 21z and 18z maps from the 12z and then compare those to last nights 0z.

I'm just hoping to get more riveting "it's more amped but less amped at the same time" for tonights 0z Euro. ;)

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BTW, if the Euro hadn't gone to the idea of having some gap in the moisture it'd still be forecasting 15" of snow in western MA. Ask Scott to post the 21z and 18z maps from the 12z and then compare those to last nights 0z.

I'm just hoping to get more riveting "it's more amped but less amped at the same time" for tonights 0z Euro. ;)

It happened at 12z and I wasn't even online.....it's difficult to tell exactly how it will play out.

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It happened at 12z and I wasn't even online.....it's difficult to tell exactly how it will play out.

Just poking back....for the record (although it's hard to pin some down) the consensus is there's going to be a split but it won't matter once it gets here....excluding those people where it did go from 1.5 to .75 or 1 to .5.

Bouchard was all over the split, I posted his exact words elsewhere....so you may not agree with it but others do. Whether it comes to pass or not no need to be insulting.

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Just poking back....for the record (although it's hard to pin some down) the consensus is there's going to be a split but it won't matter once it gets here....excluding those people where it did go from 1.5 to .75 or 1 to .5.

Bouchard was all over the split, I posted his exact words elsewhere....so you may not agree with it but others do. Whether it comes to pass or not no need to be insulting.

ohmy.gif

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I'm pretty sure as those features rotate up...the one off SE GA now and the one that will ride up over the same area later.....that's why we have the kidney bean low structure later in every single model. That's why I'm saying I don't think we really learn much early tonight, even the Euro has it.

What will be interesting is how the moisture plays out. Blizz's favorite model opens up a big hole as both of those features with the dots shift NE off the carolina coast later tonight. The micro/meso lows right now, one west of central Florida that becomes the base of the bean later east of SC, and the one Nick caught earlier east of NE FL that ends up coming up off the NE part of NC/SE DE. I think most models were making it the dominant low but some of the meso's were giving juju to the trailer west of Florida.

That's my take on it, I think that's where the meso confusion comes from and where we get the extension east from....it's that feature west of Florida I think slinging up and around as the low near DE gets hung up.

EDIT on the 18z that's almost exactly what it is. The first impulse ends up parked off NC later tonight/DE. Late tonight/Wednesday the meso low west of florida rotates around the entire thing off east of the Gulf Stream...at 12z Wednesday it has it due east of the south carolina border offshore. I think it's that second feature that the meso's were really struggling with (or absolutely nailing...one or the other)

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Just poking back....for the record (although it's hard to pin some down) the consensus is there's going to be a split but it won't matter once it gets here....excluding those people where it did go from 1.5 to .75 or 1 to .5.

Bouchard was all over the split, I posted his exact words elsewhere....so you may not agree with it but others do. Whether it comes to pass or not no need to be insulting.

How did I insult you....I said that you lost a bet because you did.

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