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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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yeah (better be!)

Word. My first waking thought on seeing this snow at my house was perhaps the storm is coming off different as modeled that this bit of precip might be all we see. But glancing at model runs at 6z, sitll showing the low where it is supposed to be for us to get snow for tonight, so I guess that part of the storm is still on track. I guess. Just so odd, how LWX has handled this, that I still don't fully trust the modeling as I keep thinking I am missing something fundamental that will leave it not coming off like the models are showing.

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Word. My first waking thought on seeing this snow at my house was perhaps the storm is coming off different as modeled that this bit of precip might be all we see. But glancing at model runs at 6z, sitll showing the low where it is supposed to be for us to get snow for tonight, so I guess that part of the storm is still on track. I guess. Just so odd, how LWX has handled this, that I still don't fully trust the modeling as I keep thinking I am missing something fundamental that will leave it not coming off like the models are showing.

actually, NAM had this nailed last night with its 0Z run

check out Thundersnow forecast too

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt

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hey, this is bonus snow in my book with the main show after around 5PM

Got to agree. Figured we were good for a little something in the morning from the coastal then a lull for a good chunk of the day. Looking like we may not get that lull now or at least very little of one. Saw a post a little earlier stating that the low was to the west of guidance but haven't checked for myself. If that were the case think we maybe seeing quicker interaction between the upper and the coastal.

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Word. My first waking thought on seeing this snow at my house was perhaps the storm is coming off different as modeled that this bit of precip might be all we see. But glancing at model runs at 6z, sitll showing the low where it is supposed to be for us to get snow for tonight, so I guess that part of the storm is still on track. I guess. Just so odd, how LWX has handled this, that I still don't fully trust the modeling as I keep thinking I am missing something fundamental that will leave it not coming off like the models are showing.

LWX is clearly worried about the rain/snow line and basically think it's going to set up 5 miles east of Interstate 95 and then loop around the entire Capitol Beltway. You can clearly see it in there new experimental forecast. Obviously they thought long and hard about it, which is why they waited to issue warnings last night. If they are wrong, they bust hard and we all should hold them accountable.

The skeptic in me wonders if they under pressure from Congress not to cause unnecessary delays at DCA by falsely advertising winter storms. I doubt it, but it makes little sense that even western portions of Fairfax or Prince William in Virginia that gain elevation pretty quickly are also suppose to avoid warning-criteria snows.

http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

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Got to agree. Figured we were good for a little something in the morning from the coastal then a lull for a good chunk of the day. Looking like we may not get that lull now or at least very little of one. Saw a post a little earlier stating that the low was to the west of guidance but haven't checked for myself. If that were the case think we maybe seeing quicker interaction between the upper and the coastal.

If the low is west of guidance wouldn't that mean warmer temps as well?

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Interesting set up for the road crews I guess....if they spread chemicals and salt now, most of it will be gone by the time the 2nd wave hits. If they do nothing until then, it will pile up even more. Going to be kinda fun to see how they handle it...

Still 32.9 in Kensington, snow has changed to sleet and rain...

Telecommuting is my friend today.

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Got to agree. Figured we were good for a little something in the morning from the coastal then a lull for a good chunk of the day. Looking like we may not get that lull now or at least very little of one. Saw a post a little earlier stating that the low was to the west of guidance but haven't checked for myself. If that were the case think we maybe seeing quicker interaction between the upper and the coastal.

I thought the coastal would move out and then the upper low would move east and create another low off the delaware coast and move up the coast. Is this not accurrate???

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LWX is clearly worried about the rain/snow line and basically think it's going to set up 5 miles east of Interstate 95 and then loop around the entire Capitol Beltway. You can clearly see it in there new experimental forecast. Obviously they thought long and hard about it, which is why they waited to issue warnings last night. If they are wrong, they bust hard and we all should hold them accountable.

http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

Nice to see I am around the 9 inch line.

Of course 5 minutes from now that will be different. :arrowhead:

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Got to agree. Figured we were good for a little something in the morning from the coastal then a lull for a good chunk of the day. Looking like we may not get that lull now or at least very little of one. Saw a post a little earlier stating that the low was to the west of guidance but haven't checked for myself. If that were the case think we maybe seeing quicker interaction between the upper and the coastal.

Check the radar... there's a lull.

I was surprised that we got this much snow out of the front end... it's changed over to sleet/freezing rain, but not before about 0.5-1" fell in Gaithersburg. I wasn't expecting more than a dusting before the changeover.

The snow in SoPA will definitely help my forecast there! :D

EDIT: Still some snow in the mix here.

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LWX is clearly worried about the rain/snow line and basically think it's going to set up 5 miles east of Interstate 95 and then loop around the entire Capitol Beltway. You can clearly see it in there new experimental forecast. Obviously they thought long and hard about it, which is why they waited to issue warnings last night. If they are wrong, they bust hard and we all should hold them accountable.

The skeptic in me wonders if they under pressure from Congress not to cause unnecessary delays at DCA by falsely advertising winter storms. I doubt it, but it makes little sense that even western portions of Fairfax or Prince William in Virginia that gain elevation pretty quickly are also suppose to avoid warning-criteria snows.

http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

I just really hope they bust low because I want snow, not because I dislike them. :popcorn:

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I just really hope they bust low because I want snow, not because I dislike them. :popcorn:

I never said I dislike them. I just don't think they have handled this storm well. I thought they were very good last year. This year, not so much. But maybe they will nail it. We shall see.

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Check the radar... there's a lull.

I was surprised that we got this much snow out of the front end... it's changed over to sleet/freezing rain, but not before about 0.5-1" fell in Gaithersburg. I wasn't expecting more than a dusting before the changeover.

The snow in SoPA will definitely help my forecast there! :D

Not sure about that lull. Been up since 3 and have seen that there the whole time figuring that would swing through at some point. Yet every time I check the radar has back filled to my west. Figure at some point it will get here but don't think it will be as drastic as I was anticipating.

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