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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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About a half an hour ago I was coming back from Sears and we started to get hail stones, not sleet. After a few minutes of these dime sized hail stones, we started to get sleet. We had enough sleet to coat the ground and streets, but it has now gone back to plain old rain. The hail stones reminded me of a storm last May that damaged my wife's car.

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WSW as of 3:15 PM dropping accums... west of blue ridge 3-6... everyone else in WSW is now 4-8 including DCA/IAD/BWI

We were 6-12" this morning. They have been gradually reducing total accumulations through the day. Their latest also has us down to 4-8", which makes sense.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

309 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE

REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY. A

SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT

WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --CSTL LOPRES INVOF ORF ATTM. PRES FALLS AOA 6MB/3HR AHD OF LOW ACRS

MUCH OF CWFA INTO THE DELMARVA...INDICATING RAPID DEEPENING. THE UPR

LOW CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INVOF S-CENTRL VA.

PERSISTENT LTNG OBSVD AHD OF LOW SINCE 12Z...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN

UPTICK IN ACTVTY PAST HR. THUNDER ALREADY BEEN ADDED TO GRIDS

EZF-NHK THRU THE LT AFTN INVOF LOW CENTER.

THE INTENSITY OF THE UVV INVOLVED /ORIGINATING FM PVA/ INTERSECTING

NEARLY IDEALLY W/ PREFERRED DENDRITIC SNW GROWTH AREA SUGGESTS THAT

IF ANY PCPN BGNS AS RAFL /WHICH MAY HPPN E OF I-95/...IT/LL CHG OVR

FAIRLY QUICKLY TO SNW. THE UPR LVL ENERGY TRANSITIONING OFF THE

COAST ATTM...AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SHUD BE UNDERWAY THRU 00Z /AND

BYD/.

XPCTG A BAND OF HVY SNW INVOF DEF AXIS...SUPPORTED BY STRONG H7-5

F-VECTOR CNVGNC...WHICH WL BE W/IN CWFA LT TAFTN-ELY THIS EVNG. 12Z

NAM/GFS BOTH SUPPORT AXIS OF HIER QFP IN/JUST W OF I-95 CRRDR. MORE

RECENT MESO /WRF/ GDNC BACKS THIS UP...BUT ACCUMS A PINCH LWR.

NO CHGS TO WSW/S ATTM...BUT DID TWEAK SNW ACCUMS DWN A INCH BASED

ON MESO /WRF/ GDNC. STILL HV WRNGS UP FOR ENTIRE CWFA XCPT FOR SRN

MD/KG CNTY. HV 4-8 INCHES W/IN THAT HVY AXIS...LESS TO THE W.

RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 2 INCH/HR SNW...SO ACCUMS

REASONABLE EVEN THO PEAK PD MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN 6-8 HRS

LONG. OBVIOUSLY KEPT SRN MD/KING GEO UNDER 5 INCHES. DONT HV HIGH

CONFIDENCE ATTM THAT THERE WL BE A THAT SHARP GRADIENT JUST SE OF

BELTWAY /THE SERN SECTION OF CWFA WL CHG OVR TO SNW TOO/ BUT DO

WISH TO KEEP THAT AREA IN JUST AN ADVY ATTM.

XPCTG A RATHER QUICK END TO SNW TNGT ONCE DEF ZN/COLD CONVEYOR BELT

SHIFTS NEWD. THAT SHUD BE A CPL HRS ON EITHER SIDE OF MIDNGT-- ERLR

SW AND LATER FOR NE MD.

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