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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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34/24 in S/E Fairfax Station. I'm excited that temps have dropped this low at this point. I think we're going to a warning by 11pm. This storm is getting mean on Fla. with tornado warnings and a HUGE line of thunderstorms. Setting records for rainfall in Jacksonville and other cities down south. This is all good news for us. However, the second upper level low could be our best friend! I hate to say it and don't want to believe it, but we may start out as a cold rain until cooling kicks in. The heaviest snow should start early afternoon (I'm looking at 1pm) and continue through 8-10pm. Let's collectively call out this storm to save us from the snowlessness so far this year!!

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9:25 EST Roanoke County VA report

KROA official temp 45 at the Roanoke Airport - Dewpoint 28.

38 at my weather station in SW Roanoke County. Light rain. No frozen precip yet.

My Bacharach Instruments sling psychrometer says 41 dry bulb, 40 wet bulb - Dew point should be about 40.5

Saturation vapor pressure is 0.87257 kPa

Barometric pressure is 29.940 in. and falling.

Temps are trending around 5 degrees per hour drop.

Radar signatures at http://wx4rnk.org/wx_brief.html indicate current rain bands are moving NNE at around 40 MPH (estimated)

Hoping for some frozen precip soon. :drunk:

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WE

UPGRADED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING EARLIER

THIS EVENING DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN 5 OR MORE INCHES OF

SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. GENERALLY WENT WITH 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN THAT MIXES IN AT THE ONSET. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE REMAIN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH AS CONFIDENCE IN WARNING

CRITERIA IS A LITTLE LOWER. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS WELL...BUT WE JUST DONT HAVE THE

CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING RIGHT NOW. HOPEFULLY 00Z

GUIDANCE WILL OFFER INCREASED CONFIDENCE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE

WILL SET UP AND THEN HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ALREADY WATCHING AN INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPROACH

FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE

CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS/CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE THIS

EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT

IT MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...BUT OBVIOUSLY THE

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT IS

WHEN WE EXPECT THE MOST IMPACT FROM THE WEATHER.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION

TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO

EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A

PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW

LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING

INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR

HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE

IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL

TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS

STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE

TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE

TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT

ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion --

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