snowfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Woops, posted this in wrong thread a few minutes ago. Anyway, 1.5" in last 45 minutes. Coming down really hard now -- I'm guessing 2-3" per hour. And its coming your way!! If ya'll want to get an idea of what this is doing just north of Davis, take a look at the Wisp webcam. http://www.wispresort.com/wisp/info/w.webcam.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If you're going to freak out and have radar hallucinations over a set-up like this, then you probably should find a different hobby. This is about as good as it can possibly look at the outset of an event. Hey I am just a newb and just really love the snow and listen to all you guys expertise. I just had a simple newb question, that's all... I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Rain/Snow line creeeepin right along.. Can hardly wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is that a 50dbz return out towards winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is there a rule of thumb for how tempature is effected by the dew point and vice versa? I have it as 33.5 degrees with a dew point of 25, with heavy mist. I'm suspicious that your dewpoint is that low...most in the area are very close to the temp. When moisture is evaporated into dry air, the temperature will fall to the wet-bulb temperature. The wet-bulb is between the temp and dewpoint. The dewpoint cannot, by definition, be higher than the temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If ya'll want to get an idea of what this is doing just north of Davis, take a look at the Wisp webcam. http://www.wispresor...o/w.webcam.aspx South of Davis....Whitegrass Ski Resort (cross country): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That radar down by Fredericksburg looks incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well, regardless, we always enjoy your company in our regional threads. Probably an area of 5-10 in those areas, but some areas will probably get near or perhaps over a foot of total snow accumulations, where the best banding sets up. DC area may get it too, but the area I outlined is my best guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Precip started back up at IAD and is predominatly snow already: SPECI KIAD 261817Z 03009KT 2 1/2SM -DZ BR OVC006 02/01 A2964 RMK AO2 P0000 SPECI KIAD 261840Z 01010KT 3/4SM R01R/6000VP6000FT -DZ BR OVC004 02/01 A2961 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 PRESFR P0000 METAR KIAD 261852Z 01009KT 3/4SM R01R/6000VP6000FT -SNRA BR OVC003 02/01 A2961 RMK AO2 DZE41RAB41SNB41 SLP028 P0001 T00170006 IAD's ob next hour should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm suspicious that your dewpoint is that low...most in the area are very close to the temp. When moisture is evaporated into dry air, the temperature will fall to the wet-bulb temperature. The wet-bulb is between the temp and dewpoint. The dewpoint cannot, by definition, be higher than the temperature. It is off the weatherbug site it says now the current dew point 28, i think i misread it a minute ago, apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Probably an area of 5-10 in those areas, but some areas will probably get near or perhaps over a foot of total snow accumulations, where the best banding sets up. DC area may get it too, but the area I outlined is my best guess right now. Dude! As you can tell, we're all looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It is off the weatherbug site it says now the current dew point 28, i think i misread it a minute ago, apologies. Dewpoint of 28 is still too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Whoever gets this band thats about to hit me as all snow...enjoy your 3" + an hour Rain as of right now , thunder mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey I am just a newb and just really love the snow and listen to all you guys expertise. I just had a simple newb question, that's all... I apologize. No worries. Always remember when an ULL passes to the S&E of the metro area, precip breaks out to the NE and hangs back to the West. Look at the radar loop down in SW VA. The rotation clearly shows the center of the ULL. As this tracks to the south of DCA and to the coast, the same type of radar returns (in general) will occur in the vicinity of the ULL. This isn't an advection type of event where you can just watch precip approach, move overhead, and then away. This is super dynamic and one of the best setups we can ask for around here for intense snowfall and good totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey I am just a newb and just really love the snow and listen to all you guys expertise. I just had a simple newb question, that's all... I apologize. The track of the upper center remains really favorable for us getting snow. The farther north you live in the county the better in terms of accumulations but most of us in northern half will do fine. Maybe even the southern half but that's a little dicier. If you live around Dunkirk. Look for really intense snowfall rates around dark and through 8 or so and then lighter stuff to last until 10 or 11PM. At least that's my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very heavy sleet, large pellets. Temp is moving down into the 33s from a high of 34.7. Instant coating of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 thats a potent ULL somebody should get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That radar down by Fredericksburg looks incredible. If you like rain. I'm not expecting snow IMBY until the ULL axis shifts through in a few hours. But still tons of moisture behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Dude! As you can tell, we're all looking forward to it. It's tricky with ULL because someone can get screwed and somebody gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If you like rain. I'm not expecting snow IMBY until the ULL axis shifts through in a few hours. But still tons of moisture behind that. Sleet mixing in with the heavy downpour here in EZF, temps dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is what I've been hitting refresh periodically for the last few hours to get http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0050.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST WED JAN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...CNTRL/NRN MD...MUCH OF DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261919Z - 270115Z SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD DURING THE 21-00Z TIME PERIOD...WITH RATES OF 1 IN/HR PROBABLE...AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...MUCH OF NJ...THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND BY 00-03Z. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AT 18Z IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...OFFSHORE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD A POSITION S-SE OF LONG ISLAND BY 03Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG AND S OF A LINE FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NJ WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET/. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CAA OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE PRIMARY SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES NEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALIGNED FROM NERN VA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AIDING IN INTENSE UVV/S THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN VA...WASHINGTON DC...AND CNTRL/NRN MD BY 21-00Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...STRONG ASCENT ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DE...SERN PA...NJ...AND EVENTUALLY THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AND WRN LONG ISLAND. ..GARNER.. 01/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sleet mixing in with the heavy downpour here in EZF, temps dropping Blaze, temp in EZF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is that a 50dbz return out towards winchester? Thats in Woodstock. See that cam I posted above. Should be here in like 30 minutes. Cant wait. I have snow and sleet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Blaze, temp in EZF? 34.6 down from 35.5 , slowly but surely...hoping that the heavy dBZ's quickly change me to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thats in Woodstock. See that cam I posted above. Should be here in like 30 minutes. Cant wait. I have snow and sleet now. There was a little speck of 50dbz for two frames your area, but it died quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's tricky with ULL because someone can get screwed and somebody gets smoked. Be careful what you say. There have already been a few pre-event weenie rescues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the changover to snow has officially begun in Orange, about 30 miles west of fredericksburg. currently mod to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the changover to snow has officially begun in Orange, about 30 miles west of fredericksburg. currently mod to heavy snow. :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is a great radar because of its resolution and temp overlay. Looping is a great way to watch what temps are doing as the bands move through. I think this is mitchnick's favorite. http://marylandwx.com/klwxstate.php Edit- A lot of stations are showing a 1-2 degree drop where heavy precip has moved in or just moved out. I'm liking my 34 surface temp right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 how long is the switch taking in minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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