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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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HIGH NOON! Just came back from buying a new shovel. Temps are a steady 36 degrees. Light drizzle coming to an end. The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement (seen in previous posts). A look to the National Doppler shows our storm to the S/W and looking pretty mean. Local live Doppler 9000 even shows a small return as close as S/W Warrenton with the bulk just crossing Rt.81. It's been quite some time since our last event like this one and I have to say the quite before the storm is deafening. I just hope my new shovel gets a good work out!! Keep reporting so we can track this thing in.

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I'd like to change my snowfall contest jackpot location please. I had Fauqier (sp?) county, but with this morning's snow, I'd like to move it into Maryland. Going to be somewhere that had a couple-few inches this morning and then gets the superband this evening...and that somewhere is going to be over 1' on the day I expect.

somewhere near Phin is going to push 12-14"

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WxUSAF,

Me too.....Frederick never got into the heavier action this morning. We had just under 2". Maybe a N. Bmore or Mt. Hoffman jackpot zone.....since they already got 3-5".

Not to be a complete IMBY weenie, but I think where I am is prime. I had 3" this morning and the NAM and GFS both have me on/just beyond the northern edge of the 1"+ zone. If the deform band sets up close to the Mason-Dixon line like PSUHoffman thinks (and decent chance he's right), somewhere between Frederick and Harford could be it. Either way, I think it's definitely in MD, not VA.

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So we now have a WSW, but NWS didn't change its forecast with its 12pm update.

Tonight Snow and rain in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

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I know its been stated before a number of times, and I will let the weenie inside of me out............the deform band always seems to set up 20-30 miles further N and W then progged with these storms. I know the Mt hoffman to Frederick to leesburg area was typically 25+ miles N and W of the optimal set-up on the models during all the last years storms.......only to get the brunt of all of them. I am still more than happy with where I am despite the trend on the models to dry it up a bit out here. You guys who got the 3-5 earlier will see your 10 without breaking a sweat.

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Not to be a complete IMBY weenie, but I think where I am is prime. I had 3" this morning and the NAM and GFS both have me on/just beyond the northern edge of the 1"+ zone. If the deform band sets up close to the Mason-Dixon line like PSUHoffman thinks (and decent chance he's right), somewhere between Frederick and Harford could be it. Either way, I think it's definitely in MD, not VA.

Yeah. I think northern MD wins this time. Although we will end with at least 8 inches out here so I am not complaining. We didnt cash in on the first round.

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Just got to my cabin, light drizzle and bit of sleet most of the drive. Now moderate snow here and 30 degrees.

Measured 1" of what looks like mostly sleet on the ground upon arrival.

Marylanders enjoy being the bullseye again.... watched that happen over and over through out my life.

Have fun all you fellow snow weenies...popcorn.gif

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1231 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC

COASTLINE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT

THE WEATHER MAY BECOME UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A

SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH

PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --CSTL LOPRES N OF CAPE HATTERAS ATTM. BACK EDGE OF THE INIT ROUND OF

ASSOC PCPN HAS CLRD CWFA. ENUF WARM AIR HAS INTRUDED FOR LOTSA RAPL...

EVEN UP TO MD/PA BRDR. METRO BALT RECVD BULK OF SNW ACCUMS UP TO

THIS PT...UP TO 3-4 INCHES N OF THE CITY. HWVR...DO NOT XPCT ADDTL

ACCUM THRU THE MIDDAY HRS.

UPR LOW IN CENTRL VA ATTM. THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED INVOF LOW

CENTER...INDICATING ENERGY INVOLVED. THE UPR LOW WL JUMP TO THE

CST BY LT TAFTN AND UNDERGO SGFNT INTENSIFICATION THIS EVNG. THE

DYNAMIC COOLING WL SUPPORT MAINLY SNW...EVEN IF SFC CONDS MILD.

THEREFORE PCPN SHUD START AS RAIN DC S/E...BUT CHG OVR QUICKLY.

XPCT BAND OF HVYR SNWFL...INVOF DEF ZN.

THE INTENSITY OF THE UVV INVOLVED /ORIGINATING FM PVA/ COINCIDING

W/ PREFERRED SNW GROWTH AREA SUGGESTS THAT ANY PCPN THAT BGNS AS

RAFL /WHICH MAY HPPN E OF I-95/ SHUD CHG OVR FAIRLY QUICKLY. XPCTG

A BAND OF HVY SNW INVOF DEF AXIS...WHICH WL BE W/IN CWFA LT TAFT-

ELY THIS EVNG. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH SUPPORT AXIS OF HIER QFP IN/JUST

W OF I-95 CRRDR. HV MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNW GRIDS...WHICH

NECESSITATED SOME UPGRADES TO WSW. NOW HV WRNGS UP FOR ENTIRE CWFA

XCPT FOR SRN MD/KG CNTY. HV 5-10 INCHES W/IN THAT AXIS...LESS TO

THE W. FTR...THERE ARE MDL SOLNS THAT INDICATE MORE SNW THAN FCST.

HWVR...CONSIDERING CNVCTV PARAMETERIZATION ISSUES...SOME OF THAT

OUTPUT WAS DISCOUNTED.

BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS...HV ALSO ADDED PL AT ONSET FOR CENTRL

VA...AND THUNDER INVOF UPR LOW. DONT THINK EITHER OF THOSE EVENTS

WL LAST TOO LONG.

XPCTG A RATHER QUICK END TO SNW TNGT ONCE COLD CONVEYOR SHIFTS

NEWD. THAT SHUD BE A CPL HRS BEFORE MIDNGT TO THE SW...AND A CPL

HRS LATER FOR NE MD.

THIS WL ALSO BE A FVRBL SETUP FOR UPSLP SHSN. DO NOT HV MUCH FOR

ACCUMS ATTM. WL ADDRESS THAT TAFTN.-- End Changed Discussion --

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