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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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I didn't see Sterling's 12z sounding posted anywhere, so here it is (at least the relevant part):

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV

hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1004.0 93 0.0 -6.0 64 2.44 15 5 272.8 279.7 273.2

1003.0 99 0.4 -4.1 72 2.83 22 5 273.3 281.2 273.8

1000.0 117 -0.1 -3.4 78 2.99 45 7 273.1 281.4 273.5

990.0 197 -0.5 -2.2 88 3.30 60 10 273.4 282.6 274.0

976.7 305 -0.9 -2.4 90 3.31 80 15 274.1 283.3 274.6

946.0 560 -1.9 -2.7 94 3.33 88 24 275.6 284.9 276.1

940.1 610 -1.7 -2.5 95 3.41 90 26 276.3 285.8 276.9

929.0 705 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.57 97 25 277.6 287.7 278.2

925.0 739 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.59 100 25 278.0 288.1 278.6

904.9 914 -1.6 -2.3 95 3.60 105 21 279.5 289.6 280.1

870.9 1219 -2.0 -2.7 95 3.61 105 17 282.1 292.4 282.7

850.0 1412 -2.3 -3.0 95 3.62 85 11 283.7 294.2 284.4

841.0 1497 -2.7 -3.4 95 3.55 81 11 284.2 294.4 284.8

838.1 1524 -2.6 -3.3 95 3.59 80 11 284.5 294.9 285.1

818.0 1717 -2.1 -2.8 95 3.82 117 14 287.1 298.2 287.7

802.0 1875 -0.1 -0.8 95 4.52 146 17 290.8 304.1 291.6

794.0 1955 0.0 -0.7 95 4.60 161 19 291.8 305.3 292.6

776.5 2134 -0.0 -0.7 95 4.70 195 22 293.6 307.6 294.4

747.6 2438 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.89 195 37 296.7 311.4 297.6

739.0 2530 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.94 197 39 297.7 312.6 298.6

719.6 2743 -0.8 -1.4 96 4.84 200 42 299.2 313.9 300.1

704.0 2919 -1.3 -1.9 96 4.75 216 40 300.5 315.0 301.4

700.0 2964 -1.7 -2.3 96 4.64 220 39 300.6 314.8 301.4

That layer from 870-920 with southeasterly winds is the key. That's the warm layer and that's what's giving us rain versus all snow. Yes I know the temps there are below freezing, but I suspect they're above freezing now. SPC Meso Analysis http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# shows that. Still looks nice above that.

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Mixed sleet and rain in Brooklyn Park, MD

wow, you sure?

I am not that far west of you and I have nice snow falling

could get another 1/2" at least out of the band

I'm going to my office in Glen Burnie and expect a substantial reduction in snowfall

always happens like that in these close cases

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I didn't see Sterling's 12z sounding posted anywhere, so here it is (at least the relevant part):

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV

hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1004.0 93 0.0 -6.0 64 2.44 15 5 272.8 279.7 273.2

1003.0 99 0.4 -4.1 72 2.83 22 5 273.3 281.2 273.8

1000.0 117 -0.1 -3.4 78 2.99 45 7 273.1 281.4 273.5

990.0 197 -0.5 -2.2 88 3.30 60 10 273.4 282.6 274.0

976.7 305 -0.9 -2.4 90 3.31 80 15 274.1 283.3 274.6

946.0 560 -1.9 -2.7 94 3.33 88 24 275.6 284.9 276.1

940.1 610 -1.7 -2.5 95 3.41 90 26 276.3 285.8 276.9

929.0 705 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.57 97 25 277.6 287.7 278.2

925.0 739 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.59 100 25 278.0 288.1 278.6

904.9 914 -1.6 -2.3 95 3.60 105 21 279.5 289.6 280.1

870.9 1219 -2.0 -2.7 95 3.61 105 17 282.1 292.4 282.7

850.0 1412 -2.3 -3.0 95 3.62 85 11 283.7 294.2 284.4

841.0 1497 -2.7 -3.4 95 3.55 81 11 284.2 294.4 284.8

838.1 1524 -2.6 -3.3 95 3.59 80 11 284.5 294.9 285.1

818.0 1717 -2.1 -2.8 95 3.82 117 14 287.1 298.2 287.7

802.0 1875 -0.1 -0.8 95 4.52 146 17 290.8 304.1 291.6

794.0 1955 0.0 -0.7 95 4.60 161 19 291.8 305.3 292.6

776.5 2134 -0.0 -0.7 95 4.70 195 22 293.6 307.6 294.4

747.6 2438 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.89 195 37 296.7 311.4 297.6

739.0 2530 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.94 197 39 297.7 312.6 298.6

719.6 2743 -0.8 -1.4 96 4.84 200 42 299.2 313.9 300.1

704.0 2919 -1.3 -1.9 96 4.75 216 40 300.5 315.0 301.4

700.0 2964 -1.7 -2.3 96 4.64 220 39 300.6 314.8 301.4

That layer from 870-920 with southeasterly winds is the key. That's the warm layer and that's what's giving us rain versus all snow. Yes I know the temps there are below freezing, but I suspect they're above freezing now. SPC Meso Analysis http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=17# shows that. Still looks nice above that.

man, that really sux

not very often I am snow and you are not

key is that I am just close enough to the High Pressure in the NE

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur

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man, that really sux

not very often I am snow and you are not

key is that I am just close enough to the High Pressure in the NE

http://weather.unisy...=pr&inv=0&t=cur

Where are you located? I'm very happy with my 3" of snow from this morning, way more than I expected. Very reasonable chance to break 12" on the day now. You can see on the reported snowfall totals that the farther NE you go, the more you have due to a colder column. Reports of 4" in Harford County. Also more up along the Mason/Dixon line. But for people at the same latitude as me, say Germantown...I have more snow since I'm farther east.

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:lmao: SPC's meso analysis for the most unstable layer has a bullseye of 2000J/kg over DC and up to 4000J/kg with the ULL. That's sick. :snowman:

Mother of God. And I thought instability of like 50 J/KG was enough to get heavy heavy snow lol

EDIT: Isn't that LPL value and not instability?

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Left north of Westminster MD this morning and had 3" on the ground with moderate snow and 30. Drive to Baltimore was a mixture of snow to snow/sleet, to light rain. Light rain/snow in downtown Baltimore now with 33/34. Seems like when the precip gets heavier the snow mixes in more.

Yep.. i just changed back to rain/sleet from all snow when a heavier band moved through... temps are suppose to drop considerably later though.

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Mother of God. And I thought instability of like 50 J/KG was enough to get heavy heavy snow lol

You're right it is. MUCAPE is going to look "big" by definition. But it still is a good sign that convection and TSSN is a distinct possibility this afternoon/evening. Nashville's skew-T looks like it has a possible unstable layer at about 775mb. IAD's even looks a little unstable around 700mb.

post-51-0-59020400-1296052821.gif

post-51-0-84391700-1296052826.gif

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