Snowden Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Look at those spring time thunderstorms in WV, god help anyone on the roads after 3-4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still all rain here sitting west of iad. This must be extremely elevation dependent, as I'm sitting at around 250 feet with rain while a few miles to the west is getting sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justaterp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mixing with some sleet now. I'm about 90% certain of that based on sound and visuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still snowing with sleet mixed in here 33.4 just about all snow and mod/hvy.. nice band moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still all rain here sitting west of iad. This must be extremely elevation dependent, as I'm sitting at around 250 feet with rain while a few miles to the west is getting sleet/snow. It's 29 here and sleeting, I'm just SW of Dulles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Left north of Westminster MD this morning and had 3" on the ground with moderate snow and 30. Drive to Baltimore was a mixture of snow to snow/sleet, to light rain. Light rain/snow in downtown Baltimore now with 33/34. Seems like when the precip gets heavier the snow mixes in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I didn't see Sterling's 12z sounding posted anywhere, so here it is (at least the relevant part): ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1004.0 93 0.0 -6.0 64 2.44 15 5 272.8 279.7 273.2 1003.0 99 0.4 -4.1 72 2.83 22 5 273.3 281.2 273.8 1000.0 117 -0.1 -3.4 78 2.99 45 7 273.1 281.4 273.5 990.0 197 -0.5 -2.2 88 3.30 60 10 273.4 282.6 274.0 976.7 305 -0.9 -2.4 90 3.31 80 15 274.1 283.3 274.6 946.0 560 -1.9 -2.7 94 3.33 88 24 275.6 284.9 276.1 940.1 610 -1.7 -2.5 95 3.41 90 26 276.3 285.8 276.9 929.0 705 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.57 97 25 277.6 287.7 278.2 925.0 739 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.59 100 25 278.0 288.1 278.6 904.9 914 -1.6 -2.3 95 3.60 105 21 279.5 289.6 280.1 870.9 1219 -2.0 -2.7 95 3.61 105 17 282.1 292.4 282.7 850.0 1412 -2.3 -3.0 95 3.62 85 11 283.7 294.2 284.4 841.0 1497 -2.7 -3.4 95 3.55 81 11 284.2 294.4 284.8 838.1 1524 -2.6 -3.3 95 3.59 80 11 284.5 294.9 285.1 818.0 1717 -2.1 -2.8 95 3.82 117 14 287.1 298.2 287.7 802.0 1875 -0.1 -0.8 95 4.52 146 17 290.8 304.1 291.6 794.0 1955 0.0 -0.7 95 4.60 161 19 291.8 305.3 292.6 776.5 2134 -0.0 -0.7 95 4.70 195 22 293.6 307.6 294.4 747.6 2438 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.89 195 37 296.7 311.4 297.6 739.0 2530 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.94 197 39 297.7 312.6 298.6 719.6 2743 -0.8 -1.4 96 4.84 200 42 299.2 313.9 300.1 704.0 2919 -1.3 -1.9 96 4.75 216 40 300.5 315.0 301.4 700.0 2964 -1.7 -2.3 96 4.64 220 39 300.6 314.8 301.4 That layer from 870-920 with southeasterly winds is the key. That's the warm layer and that's what's giving us rain versus all snow. Yes I know the temps there are below freezing, but I suspect they're above freezing now. SPC Meso Analysis http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# shows that. Still looks nice above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mixed sleet and rain in Brooklyn Park, MD wow, you sure? I am not that far west of you and I have nice snow falling could get another 1/2" at least out of the band I'm going to my office in Glen Burnie and expect a substantial reduction in snowfall always happens like that in these close cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I didn't see Sterling's 12z sounding posted anywhere, so here it is (at least the relevant part): ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1004.0 93 0.0 -6.0 64 2.44 15 5 272.8 279.7 273.2 1003.0 99 0.4 -4.1 72 2.83 22 5 273.3 281.2 273.8 1000.0 117 -0.1 -3.4 78 2.99 45 7 273.1 281.4 273.5 990.0 197 -0.5 -2.2 88 3.30 60 10 273.4 282.6 274.0 976.7 305 -0.9 -2.4 90 3.31 80 15 274.1 283.3 274.6 946.0 560 -1.9 -2.7 94 3.33 88 24 275.6 284.9 276.1 940.1 610 -1.7 -2.5 95 3.41 90 26 276.3 285.8 276.9 929.0 705 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.57 97 25 277.6 287.7 278.2 925.0 739 -1.3 -2.0 95 3.59 100 25 278.0 288.1 278.6 904.9 914 -1.6 -2.3 95 3.60 105 21 279.5 289.6 280.1 870.9 1219 -2.0 -2.7 95 3.61 105 17 282.1 292.4 282.7 850.0 1412 -2.3 -3.0 95 3.62 85 11 283.7 294.2 284.4 841.0 1497 -2.7 -3.4 95 3.55 81 11 284.2 294.4 284.8 838.1 1524 -2.6 -3.3 95 3.59 80 11 284.5 294.9 285.1 818.0 1717 -2.1 -2.8 95 3.82 117 14 287.1 298.2 287.7 802.0 1875 -0.1 -0.8 95 4.52 146 17 290.8 304.1 291.6 794.0 1955 0.0 -0.7 95 4.60 161 19 291.8 305.3 292.6 776.5 2134 -0.0 -0.7 95 4.70 195 22 293.6 307.6 294.4 747.6 2438 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.89 195 37 296.7 311.4 297.6 739.0 2530 -0.1 -0.7 96 4.94 197 39 297.7 312.6 298.6 719.6 2743 -0.8 -1.4 96 4.84 200 42 299.2 313.9 300.1 704.0 2919 -1.3 -1.9 96 4.75 216 40 300.5 315.0 301.4 700.0 2964 -1.7 -2.3 96 4.64 220 39 300.6 314.8 301.4 That layer from 870-920 with southeasterly winds is the key. That's the warm layer and that's what's giving us rain versus all snow. Yes I know the temps there are below freezing, but I suspect they're above freezing now. SPC Meso Analysis http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=17# shows that. Still looks nice above that. man, that really sux not very often I am snow and you are not key is that I am just close enough to the High Pressure in the NE http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SPC's meso analysis for the most unstable layer has a bullseye of 2000J/kg over DC and up to 4000J/kg with the ULL. That's sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 McLean/Arlington Line: an inch or so this morning (7:30), largely melted to slush with rain. Temp at 8:30: 34. All rain, sometimes moderate, on drive into city. Main roads wet, not slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Down to a heavy mist/drizzle. Temp has been stuck between 33.1 and 33.5 since 6am. Still have the early morning slush coating on the road and lawns. Have not seen frozen since about 5:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Enjoy your 2-4, bro. lol, if the NAM is right, I'll have that in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ka60 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 mix of snow and rain/sleet in Boyds / Clarksburg...... total snow so far close to 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 man, that really sux not very often I am snow and you are not key is that I am just close enough to the High Pressure in the NE http://weather.unisy...=pr&inv=0&t=cur Where are you located? I'm very happy with my 3" of snow from this morning, way more than I expected. Very reasonable chance to break 12" on the day now. You can see on the reported snowfall totals that the farther NE you go, the more you have due to a colder column. Reports of 4" in Harford County. Also more up along the Mason/Dixon line. But for people at the same latitude as me, say Germantown...I have more snow since I'm farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SPC's meso analysis for the most unstable layer has a bullseye of 2000J/kg over DC and up to 4000J/kg with the ULL. That's sick. Mother of God. And I thought instability of like 50 J/KG was enough to get heavy heavy snow lol EDIT: Isn't that LPL value and not instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Picking back up here. 4 inches here I come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still light snow here 3.3" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SPC's meso analysis for the most unstable layer has a bullseye of 2000J/kg over DC and up to 4000J/kg with the ULL. That's sick. You're incredibly wrong. CAPE values are the red lines... the shaded area (what you're mentioning) is the lifted parcel level (AGL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You're incredibly wrong. CAPE values are the red lines... the shaded area (what you're mentioning) is the lifted parcel level (AGL) I was about to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymdwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 light snow about 3.5 inches some sleet mixing in temp 31.9 dp 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogulbasher Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Got rid of the inch of heavy slush from the driveway, rain mixed with a little sleet started around 8am and is now looking like it is starting to try and turn over to snow here in Gaithersburg as it gets a little heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sitting at 33 with light rain... boo. I think we got mostly sleet last night I could hear it pinging off the windows. BWI is only 10 miles north and got 2" so Crofton just missed the cutoff. Hopefully that 12" 6z NAM bullseye verifies tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justaterp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Back to moderate snow. I have not measured, but my eyes tell me we have 3 inches or so on the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I was about to say This could see a very small amount of MUCAPE with it... hence the possibility for some TSSN later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 4in here. "trained spotter" reported 5in couple min away from me.. doubt that it was over an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You are an eekhole. There's a BIG difference between 2000-4000 CAPE and 0 Tornado outbreak vs. rain/snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Left north of Westminster MD this morning and had 3" on the ground with moderate snow and 30. Drive to Baltimore was a mixture of snow to snow/sleet, to light rain. Light rain/snow in downtown Baltimore now with 33/34. Seems like when the precip gets heavier the snow mixes in more. Yep.. i just changed back to rain/sleet from all snow when a heavier band moved through... temps are suppose to drop considerably later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i swear NE MD is a snow magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mother of God. And I thought instability of like 50 J/KG was enough to get heavy heavy snow lol You're right it is. MUCAPE is going to look "big" by definition. But it still is a good sign that convection and TSSN is a distinct possibility this afternoon/evening. Nashville's skew-T looks like it has a possible unstable layer at about 775mb. IAD's even looks a little unstable around 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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