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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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The second batch looks to be pretty much all snow and that really the storm in a nutshell. This stuff is not significant.

depends on your location, I have 2.5" from this "insignificant" batch and places just northeast of me have 4" from this band. Around Baltimore 2-3" seems common. Its also telling that models are still mishandling this system because none have had this band as intense or as far north as it is. Furthermore, from surface obs it seems the low is over albermarle sound right now in eastern NC. Winds were out of the south on Hatteras all morning and just now turned out of the southwest. Models have that low east of HSE right now and it is west. Not sure how that will impact things later on but models are not handling things well.

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depends on your location, I have 2.5" from this "insignificant" batch and places just northeast of me have 4" from this band. Around Baltimore 2-3" seems common. Its also telling that models are still mishandling this system because none have had this band as intense or as far north as it is. Furthermore, from surface obs it seems the low is over albermarle sound right now in eastern NC. Winds were out of the south on Hatteras all morning and just now turned out of the southwest. Models have that low east of HSE right now and it is west. Not sure how that will impact things later on but models are not handling things well.

Most of us don't live so far north. For us inside the beltway, the upper low is the deal.

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depends on your location, I have 2.5" from this "insignificant" batch and places just northeast of me have 4" from this band. Around Baltimore 2-3" seems common. Its also telling that models are still mishandling this system because none have had this band as intense or as far north as it is. Furthermore, from surface obs it seems the low is over albermarle sound right now in eastern NC. Winds were out of the south on Hatteras all morning and just now turned out of the southwest. Models have that low east of HSE right now and it is west. Not sure how that will impact things later on but models are not handling things well.

You thinking this thing is coming more west/north? Will that screw people farther south with the r/s line?

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Most of us don't live so far north. For us inside the beltway, the upper low is the deal.

for DC very very true... I am glad we don't do this but that is why the Philly/NYC Region splits their threads at gametime. I think for us, its ok to have one thread for the area but keeping in mind that means we have people from Richmond, DC, Baltimore, and all the way up to the Mason Dixon line in here. I think its better this way though as we can better share information and thoughts with one thread.

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I'm struggling to see how some can be disappointed. There's a solid 2-4" of bonus snow on the ground from Bmore N, NE and NW. It was never going to snow all day, so I'm not really sure why some thought it was going to. Take a look at returns in KY and WV. There's some nice instability.....that ULL means business.

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It is time for a snow chase Wes, come up and visit me and you will have the best dinner you have ever eaten.

I won't do as good as you but the nam, sref and gfs has me getting and inch of liquid equivalent and much of that will be snow when the heights crash so I think I'll do OK. You guys north should do great.

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I won't do as good as you but the nam, sref and gfs has me getting and inch of liquid equivalent and much of that will be snow when the heights crash so I think I'll do OK. You guys north should do great.

Thank you for all your constant informative and insightfull posts. I hope you do great and the dinner invitation is a real and open invite if you are ever in the Baltimore area and are hungry.

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You thinking this thing is coming more west/north? Will that screw people farther south with the r/s line?

I think the SLP will be west of models are tracking it yes, but I think DC and places around there will do fine with snow because the h5 track is pervect and they are going to get great convective banding later today as that moves just south of the area. Rates could be intense. What I am more interested is up my way, some models have been placing the deform band south of this area. I am not so sure about that, the track of the surface low to me would put the back edge more in a HGR-MDT-ABE line, not FDK-LNS=TTN

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drove from baltimore to annapolis this morning. Baltimore City had about 1.5 inches on the ground and streets covered and it was sleeting when I left around 7:30am - around BWI it was really heavy sleet mixed with snow and by the time I got to annapolis it was mostly rain mixed with some sleet with barely any accumulation at all.

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