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Jan 26-27 storm obs/nowcasting/etc


Ian

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I take it you threw out the 06z gfs

not threw out, I never completely throw out guidance, its factored into my thought processes but it did not weight to heavily. Actually I made that map early yesterday for people at work, and was going to edit it and post here but after considering things...realized I should just run with it. I do think DC south and east ends up with much more precip then my 8-14" zone, difference is it will be lower ratios in that zone, mix for a time today before going to all snow, and there is the threat of the normal deform superband that typically sets up NW of where guidance puts it. Even with marginal temps ratios in that band tend to be good and this also is why often you get the snow max along the nw edge of the heavy snow shield. I could definitely see my 5-10 zone busting if that band sets up southeast of where I think. We shall see tonight.

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It really does not seem like the rain-snow line has moved north of BWI airport. Can anyone in B-more confirm? That may be its final resting place, basically where it seems to have been 2 hours now. And I am sort of not seeing this lull, especially farther north. On weenie radar, it seems like everything is trying to fill back in and racing fairly quickly. I thought much of this morning and early afternoon would be drizzle.

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It really does not seem like the rain-snow line has moved north of BWI airport. Can anyone in B-more confirm? That may be its final resting place, basically where it seems to have been 2 hours now. And I am sort of not seeing this lull, especially farther north. On weenie radar, it seems like everything is trying to fill back in and racing fairly quickly. I thought much of this morning and early afternoon would be drizzle.

I've had some light drizzle mixing in here. Seems to be what's happening now.

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So you think the rain-snow line will remain north of BWI for the event?

no, but probably for much of the day. Although, I step outside in Northwest DC its a light rain that oh so feels close like it wants to go back to snow.. Hopefully the cold air wins earlier than forecast.

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Good, that snowmap is a disaster. Just like my WWA. axesmiley.png

do you have trouble reading?

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ050>056-502-262000-

/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-110127T0900Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-ORANGE-CULPEPER-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...CULPEPER...

MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG

700 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST

THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST

THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO START... BECOMING ALL SNOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN AND A LITTLE SLEET

THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO

CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW

WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 4PM AND MIDNIGHT...

IMPACTING THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR.

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