Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 looking at a few things right now..some interesting looking wind profiles down in FL for later today.. 35-50kts at H5 out of the WSW with 850mb winds out of the south with 35kts and nicely backed and strong sfc winds in the area. The shear is for sure there but the instability isn't that great but should get the job done..dew points are also in the low to mid 60's with some upper 60 dews popping near MIA area DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF FL... ..FL SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON TO SERN STATES BY 12Z WED AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SERN LA/SRN MS COAST WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH NRN FL/SRN GA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GULF MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD THRU FL PENINSULA ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WITH 850 WINDS TO 35-40KT BY MID AFTERNOON CENTRAL FL PENINSULA NWD. WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER NERN GULF AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IT STILL APPEARS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THE DOMINANT AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA BETWEEN 00-06Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND REGIME WHICH COULD DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FL PENINSULA WHERE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE LITTLE CAP WILL REMAIN ONCE TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S. AT THAT POINT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm impressed We might see something like this in 6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We might see something like this in 6 months. Lk Huron would shread that baby apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sweet line. Watch out south of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still some moderately good couplets down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still some moderately good couplets down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 was about 20 minutes ago or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This type of stuff is the only reason I like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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