A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One say WRF NMM the other WRF-ARW two different models One is the ARW and one is the NMM. 2 different models. I believe a Met said they are both based off the NAM but with tweaks to each one. Thanks! I didnt see the fine print before the maps were posted lol. Looking at them closely, it seems like they have similar gradients and cut offs to the west and north, but the differences lie in how much the total snowfall is in the heavier bands. I wonder how much of this is due to boundary layer temps and how much of it is a function of the amount of QPF that is modeled to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is the only site that I know gives UKMET precip. at hour 42. UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks! I didnt see the fine print before the maps were posted lol. Looking at them closely, it seems like they have similar gradients and cut offs to the west and north, but the differences lie in how much the total snowfall is in the heavier bands. I wonder how much of this is due to boundary layer temps and how much of it is a function of the amount of QPF that is modeled to fall. These 2 models and the MM5 pretty much follow the NAM, in my experience with following all of them. They are separated from the NAM with their banding detail. But with regards to cutoffs, gradients and precip shield, they almost always are similar to NAM. Great models for specific banding but if NAM is wrong, they are usually wrong as well. I find them to be excellent models for banding as long as NAM is in line with the concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Whatever the case, this little event that just passed by, and now another one until Thursday will make people sick of the snow, except us of course. And ANOTHER 1-2" on Saturday with the Clipper, then snow squalls Monday with the Arctic front, and maybe a big event on 2/3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks! I didnt see the fine print before the maps were posted lol. Looking at them closely, it seems like they have similar gradients and cut offs to the west and north, but the differences lie in how much the total snowfall is in the heavier bands. I wonder how much of this is due to boundary layer temps and how much of it is a function of the amount of QPF that is modeled to fall. Algreek is correct. As far as I know, they are both run off the NAM, but with slightly different physics applied to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 UKMET is just beautiful all around. Check out latest Water Vapor, which i would put this into the post, not sure how http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the storm will be closer to the coast. There is nothing to force this storm really far east. The NAO isn't really negative and the PNA is positive. If you look at the progression of the northern stream on the water vapor loop, you can see how the sharp cutoff may form and the non coastal hugger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 um...UKIE barely moves from 0z to 6z thur!!! id like to think its vertically stacking at that point? no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Honestly I couldn't care less how much falls...this winter has been incredible. For a few hours tomorrow night many of us will be in weenie heaven. We will know more about banding and such at 00z tonight. Seeing the ECMWF still show a broad 1" liquid is a terrific sign. We've all witnessed heavy snow. Multiple times just this year. And of course I agree that it never gets old. But I want a storm with some duration for a change. I want to fall asleep with falling snow and wake up 7 hours later with flakes still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WRF NMM Clown If the hi-res models are right, that's going to be painful up in the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And ANOTHER 1-2" on Saturday with the Clipper, then snow squalls Monday with the Arctic front, and maybe a big event on 2/3? Yeah, and the snow just keeps on coming. I think by mid-February even us snow fanatics who track every storm days on end and agonise over every model run will be just about ready for spring!....................... ( Don't measn to rub it in to the folks who haven't received much so far, I'm puling for you guys in DC, VA, BWI & C/EPA this time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM totals from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And ANOTHER 1-2" on Saturday with the Clipper, then snow squalls Monday with the Arctic front, and maybe a big event on 2/3? What's the time frame on the clipper? Havent seen a good clipper for what seems like a couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And the GGEM from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.ssec.wisc...goeseastwv.html certainly a good deal of moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREFS a good bit wetter than 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ummm, can't get much further east, unless you're on a boat. Which is one element of the Upton snowfall maps that makes me giggle...they always show accumulating snow out on the continental shelf. my verbiage was poor...should have just been NORTHEAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0C 850 temperatures are not even close to the coast at this hour with the CCB hammering away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's the difference between the two maps? Theyre labeled the same. For us, the top map has 10" and the bottom map has 8", so not much difference. But from Delaware to SW NJ, the differences are much bigger. two different models....NMM and ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Enjoy dudes...this rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br>you think coastal areas of jersey, li and conn. could see that kind of set up again tommorow night?<br> 1) I'm guessing you live in one of the aforementioned areas - the IMBYism on this board is staggering ... but at least you weren't as flagrant about it. 2) Perhaps, though I'd be loathe to forecast anything to that level ... but 2-3"/hr. rates are likely for a time tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So Mount Holly is going with 10.4+ in Northern Morris County and Upton is going with 6.5 in Southern Passaic County... quite the discrepancy for our area. Edit: Nevermind, I guess the old Mount Holly image was stuck in my cache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's exactly what I wanted to see...it lends credence to the further northwest models. It's hard to find any SREF members (other than a stray RSM and ETA member) that have a very far southeast deformation band like some of the 12z models did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 "i tried to not make it an imby post though i know its not wise to do that. i do live in the aforementioned regions though haha. but just with what the models are going with as far as where the deform sets up it "looks'" like it would be over that area. but also do you think the seasonal trend of the deform band forming farther nw could come into play as well with this storm? 12/26/10 did and ne nj got the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 my verbiage was poor...should have just been NORTHEAST I'm just playing around, I know what you were getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We've all witnessed heavy snow. Multiple times just this year. And of course I agree that it never gets old. But I want a storm with some duration for a change. I want to fall asleep with falling snow and wake up 7 hours later with flakes still falling. The flaw in your logic is that you're sleeping 7 hours - how the hell can you do that when it's snowing? :>) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On the SREF mean the .75" line bumped northwest by a good 25-50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREFS a good bit wetter than 09z. Time for the QPF rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Official Euro QPF numbers EWR: 1.09" All snow JFK: 1.14" some mixing LGA: 1.11" some mixing HPN: 1.01" All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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