Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

NYC CWA January 26-27 OBS and Discussion Thread


Rib

Recommended Posts

One say WRF NMM the other WRF-ARW

two different models

One is the ARW and one is the NMM. 2 different models.

I believe a Met said they are both based off the NAM but with tweaks to each one.

Thanks! :thumbsup: I didnt see the fine print before the maps were posted lol. Looking at them closely, it seems like they have similar gradients and cut offs to the west and north, but the differences lie in how much the total snowfall is in the heavier bands. I wonder how much of this is due to boundary layer temps and how much of it is a function of the amount of QPF that is modeled to fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 915
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Thanks! :thumbsup: I didnt see the fine print before the maps were posted lol. Looking at them closely, it seems like they have similar gradients and cut offs to the west and north, but the differences lie in how much the total snowfall is in the heavier bands. I wonder how much of this is due to boundary layer temps and how much of it is a function of the amount of QPF that is modeled to fall.

These 2 models and the MM5 pretty much follow the NAM, in my experience with following all of them. They are separated from the NAM with their banding detail. But with regards to cutoffs, gradients and precip shield, they almost always are similar to NAM.

Great models for specific banding but if NAM is wrong, they are usually wrong as well.

I find them to be excellent models for banding as long as NAM is in line with the concensus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks! :thumbsup: I didnt see the fine print before the maps were posted lol. Looking at them closely, it seems like they have similar gradients and cut offs to the west and north, but the differences lie in how much the total snowfall is in the heavier bands. I wonder how much of this is due to boundary layer temps and how much of it is a function of the amount of QPF that is modeled to fall.

Algreek is correct. As far as I know, they are both run off the NAM, but with slightly different physics applied to them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly I couldn't care less how much falls...this winter has been incredible.

For a few hours tomorrow night many of us will be in weenie heaven.

We will know more about banding and such at 00z tonight. Seeing the ECMWF still show a broad 1" liquid is a terrific sign.

We've all witnessed heavy snow. Multiple times just this year. And of course I agree that it never gets old. But I want a storm with some duration for a change. I want to fall asleep with falling snow and wake up 7 hours later with flakes still falling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And ANOTHER 1-2" on Saturday with the Clipper, then snow squalls Monday with the Arctic front, and maybe a big event on 2/3?

:lmao: Yeah, and the snow just keeps on coming. I think by mid-February even us snow fanatics who track every storm days on end and agonise over every model run will be just about ready for spring!....................... ( Don't measn to rub it in to the folks who haven't received much so far, I'm puling for you guys in DC, VA, BWI & C/EPA this time).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ummm, can't get much further east, unless you're on a boat. Which is one element of the Upton snowfall maps that makes me giggle...they always show accumulating snow out on the continental shelf.

my verbiage was poor...should have just been NORTHEAST smile.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's the difference between the two maps? Theyre labeled the same. For us, the top map has 10" and the bottom map has 8", so not much difference. But from Delaware to SW NJ, the differences are much bigger.

two different models....NMM and ARW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

<br>you think coastal areas of jersey, li and conn. could see that kind of set up again tommorow night?<br>

1) I'm guessing you live in one of the aforementioned areas - the IMBYism on this board is staggering ;) ... but at least you weren't as flagrant about it.

2) Perhaps, though I'd be loathe to forecast anything to that level ... but 2-3"/hr. rates are likely for a time tomorrow night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"i tried to not make it an imby post though i know its not wise to do that. i do live in the aforementioned regions though haha. but just with what the models are going with as far as where the deform sets up it "looks'" like it would be over that area. but also do you think the seasonal trend of the deform band forming farther nw could come into play as well with this storm? 12/26/10 did and ne nj got the jackpot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've all witnessed heavy snow. Multiple times just this year. And of course I agree that it never gets old. But I want a storm with some duration for a change. I want to fall asleep with falling snow and wake up 7 hours later with flakes still falling.

The flaw in your logic is that you're sleeping 7 hours - how the hell can you do that when it's snowing? :>)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...