ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No way. The storm's hauling its way out of here and the really heavy snow hits us in maybe 6-8 hours, unlike the 18 hours we had on 12/26, not to mention the fact we'll have lower ratios. not the way the models were last night- it was a more prolonged (not as long as 12/26, just longer than 6 hours) event with more qpf than 12/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Accumulation for the north shore of Long Island? I'm near Port Jefferson. 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd say based on "seasonal trends" it would be over by 5 AM lol. Remember waking up 7 AM after every storm this winter to a beautiful red sunrise (shoulda gone out to get pics of it) I know.... man, even the Xmas storm had the sun coming out (although it was like 10 am instead of 7 am lol). Every other storm has had the snow out of here between 5-7 am, although the last one managed to eek out a few flakes up until 8 am or so. The funny thing is, the sun always comes out right after the last flake falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Christmas storm had a clear sunrise as well here while it was still pouring snow by you I know.... man, even the Xmas storm had the sun coming out (although it was like 10 am instead of 7 am lol). Every other storm has had the snow out of here between 5-7 am, although the last one managed to eek out a few flakes up until 8 am or so. The funny thing is, the sun always comes out right after the last flake falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Honestly I couldn't care less how much falls...this winter has been incredible. For a few hours tomorrow night many of us will be in weenie heaven. We will know more about banding and such at 00z tonight. Seeing the ECMWF still show a broad 1" liquid is a terrific sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It was also a drier snow with high ratios. Maybe inland the ratios will be higher but the same amount of water likely won't produce the same snow totals that one did. Something I've never seen before-- it was partly cloudy to clear for all of Nassau County starting early in the morning while it was snowing 1-2" per hour all day from Central Suffolk on east. We had 6-10 inches of snow while parts of Suffolk County got 20 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Honestly I couldn't care less how much falls...this winter has been incredible. For a few hours tomorrow night many of us will be in weenie heaven. We will know more about banding and such at 00z tonight. Seeing the ECMWF still show a broad 1" liquid is a terrific sign. earthlight in regards to the seasonal trend of the deform band setting norwthwest of where it was forecasted to develop, do you see the coastal areas picking up more snow with this storm that the further inland spots that have done good this year with the deform bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Honestly I couldn't care less how much falls...this winter has been incredible. For a few hours tomorrow night many of us will be in weenie heaven. We will know more about banding and such at 00z tonight. Seeing the ECMWF still show a broad 1" liquid is a terrific sign. i honestly believe the models are underdoing QPF...based on dynamics, VV's, positions of the h85, h7 and h5 lows I would think C-NJ north and east thru LI will get more QPF than what is being shown, whether its rain or snow is a conversation for another time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not the way the models were last night- it was a more prolonged (not as long as 12/26, just longer than 6 hours) event with more qpf than 12/26 What? Christmas storm had a clear sunrise as well here while it was still pouring snow by you It was still snowing here after 7 am. Honestly I couldn't care less how much falls...this winter has been incredible. For a few hours tomorrow night many of us will be in weenie heaven. We will know more about banding and such at 00z tonight. Seeing the ECMWF still show a broad 1" liquid is a terrific sign. Agree John. This storm went from an inland storm to a snowstorm. At first, you were not crazy about this event.. How things have changed in 1 week. All the models tonight will be really important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 as I said before, and HPC agrees, the closer to the coast UKMET GGEM track makes sense. Just look how this is setting up in the deep south. It has "the look". Funny to try to trust the ggem now but when its close to the euro, you can feel a little better about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WRF NMM Clown WRF ARW clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All the models tonight will be really important most overused phrase in on the boards.... arent they always important? dont we have pretty strong model consensus now? so how much MORE important can they get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What? It was still snowing here after 7 am. Agree John. This storm went from an inland storm to a snowstorm. At first, you were not crazy about this event.. How things have changed in 1 week. All the models tonight will be really important last nights models showed a longer duration storm than the 6 hours someone else had referenced....that is all I was saying...wasnt comparing it to dec 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is the only site that I know gives UKMET precip. at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br>i honestly believe the models are underdoing QPF...based on dynamics, VV's, positions of the h85, h7 and h5 lows I would think C-NJ north and east thru LI will get more QPF than what is being shown, whether its rain or snow is a conversation for another time<br> Underdoing QPF in certain areas... this looks like a general 6-10" but there are some signals - from the hi res models which aren't great in this time range but have been downright DEADLY within 24 in the last few winters - of a megaband (like the one that crushed Ct. a few weeks ago) delivering a ribbon of 12-20" ... the width of that ribbon/number of heavy game changing bands that develop once the thing is upon us... well, as they say, "That's why they play the game!". + = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WRF NMM Clown WRF ARW clown I just have a feeling that the bigger total will be further north and east of what is being shown there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 most overused phrase in on the boards.... arent they always important? dont we have pretty strong model consensus now? so how much MORE important can they get? I mean determining how much QPF and where the banding will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not to disagree but the recent storm in CT that gave NYC 7" or 8" was also a fast mover but dumped 30"+ totals over southwestern CT. Got this from 11:00 PM to 8 AM. just under 24 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 last nights models showed a longer duration storm than the 6 hours someone else had referenced....that is all I was saying...wasnt comparing it to dec 26 Well, hopefully it will be more like 12 hours and not 6 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Got this from 11:00 PM to 8 AM. just under 24 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just have a feeling that the bigger total will be further north and east of what is being shown there Ummm, can't get much further east, unless you're on a boat. Which is one element of the Upton snowfall maps that makes me giggle...they always show accumulating snow out on the continental shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just have a feeling that the bigger total will be further north and east of what is being shown there What's the difference between the two maps? Theyre labeled the same. For us, the top map has 10" and the bottom map has 8", so not much difference. But from Delaware to SW NJ, the differences are much bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 140 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DAYS 1 AND 2... PREFERENCE: GEM GLOBAL OR UKMET THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THIS CYCLONE EAST OF THE ECMWF...WHICH POPS THE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW RIGHT ON THE DELMARVA SHORE 00Z/27 THURSDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET FORCE THE LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE START OF DAY 2...WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY THE BEST FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH HAS FINALLY SETTLED OUT AFTER DAYS OF DISPARATE MODEL SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Look at the bow echos on the KTLH radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's the difference between the two maps? Theyre labeled the same. For us, the top map has 10" and the bottom map has 8", so not much difference. But from Delaware to SW NJ, the differences are much bigger. One say WRF NMM the other WRF-ARW two different models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just have a feeling that the bigger total will be further north and east of what is being shown there thats your problem right there....... mt holly updated their snowfall grid. pulled down the heaviest snow axis south. i tried to link it, but it didnt work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's the difference between the two maps? Theyre labeled the same. For us, the top map has 10" and the bottom map has 8", so not much difference. But from Delaware to SW NJ, the differences are much bigger. One is the ARW and one is the NMM. 2 different models. I believe a Met said they are both based off the NAM but with tweaks to each one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Got this from 11:00 PM to 8 AM. just under 24 inches. From 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. NW of you, I got 16". From 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. alone had 11-12".... will never underestimate a fast mover again. 21" event total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just have a feeling that the bigger total will be further north and east of what is being shown there I think the storm will be closer to the coast. There is nothing to force this storm really far east. The NAO isn't really negative and the PNA is positive. Look at the bow echos on the KTLH radar! There is also a lot of lightning down south. Explosive storms down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. NW of you, I got 16". From 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. alone had 11-12".... will never underestimate a fast mover again. 21" event total. you think coastal areas of jersey, li and conn. could see that kind of set up again tommorow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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