TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 euro looks like ggem and ukmet with a bigger precip field and closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Im starting to think even the coast will see 10:1 ratios with this now. CCBs rarely have worse than 10:1 ratios and the trend at both the upper levels and surface has been colder for about 2 days now. I would imagine that as the storm progresses, we could even see ratios increase to maybe 12:1 along the coast...with areas north and west maybe approaching 14 or 15:1. It even managed to snow 2 inches today despite winds out of the south for a good 8 hours preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shift that maybe 50 miles NW and we get absolutely demolished. I agree, I'm liking where we sit right now. 6-12 a good call at this juncture. I also like the fact that the euro is on the NW side of the guidance. Hopefully that continues with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Initially ratios might be lower than 10-1 and then catch up later as the column cools. It's hard to call for more than 12" in a situation like this but if it really sits over us for long enough it's possible. Looks like another plastering wet snow that dries out as we cool down. Rain should very limited if there's any at all. Nice to see you getting so optimistic about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EC DAY 1 & 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I also like the fact that the euro is on the NW side of the guidance. Hopefully that continues with the 12z run. Looks like it's staying that way and we even flirt with the 0C line at 850 for a time when the lighter precip is around. I think it's very likely the other models come back to a Euro like depiction later on and we all get in on the heavy deformation snows. The NAM and even GFS just seem to be having difficulties with handling the energy handoffs and overall development of the system. Major storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 euro-looks faster and drier than 0Z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EURO RH MAPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NMM: ARW: Wet in Kentucky and dry in SNE. Extreme southern Ohio could get more QPF than POU and BOS. This is not an invalid scenario as the mid-levels wind themselves up along the east coast and the longwave trof amplitude decreases. It's possible the short range models are finally catching up to the extent of moist southerly flow in the south but have just not yet translated that down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vyse Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Uncertainty is further strengthened by the wet bias that the NAM has. It's hard for me to sit with a certain amount at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 euro-looks faster and drier than 0Z.... From Tombo: nyc 1 hpn .75-1 jfk 1 isp 1.25 Thats very nice. GGEM/UKIE/JMA and Euro have the exact same precip. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How far west does that 1" QPF around NYC extend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From Tombo: nyc 1 hpn .75-1 jfk 1 isp 1.25 Thats very nice. GGEM/UKIE/JMA and Euro have the exact same precip. Impressive. its nice, but like every other model is cut back...last night was 1.50 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 its nice, but like every other model is cut back...last night was 1.50 or so. Who cares though. It's a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Who cares though. It's a nice snowstorm. 1000000pct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 its nice, but like every other model is cut back...last night was 1.50 or so. We still have a few more model cycles. Can all change for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LGA all sub zero 850, but first six hours of heaviest precip (.4) start over 3ºC. Second six hours (.39") and final six hours (.24) start at 1.8 and 1.1ºC, respectively I can't guess amounts well off six hour data points, but I'd guess ballpark six inches of plaster after a change from rain. If Euro verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This seems to be a 4-8" for the city, with 6-10" on the Euro, GGEM, JMA, and Ukie. More snow. just continues to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ECMWF doesn't do too well on sfc temps with dynamic cooling. I wouldn't take those sfc temps too literally. LGA all sub zero 850, but first six hours of heaviest precip (.4) start over 3ºC. Second six hours (.39") and final six hours (.24) start at 1.8 and 1.1ºC, respectively I can't guess amounts well off six hour data points, but I'd guess ballpark six inches of plaster after a change from rain. If Euro verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LGA all sub zero 850, but first six hours of heaviest precip (.4) start over 3ºC. Second six hours (.39") and final six hours (.24) start at 1.8 and 1.1ºC, respectively I can't guess amounts well off six hour data points, but I'd guess ballpark six inches of plaster after a change from rain. If Euro verifies. Other models are all colder, so I'd give that quite a bit of consideration. But without a doubt the snow we get will likely be the pasty, plastering variety. Unfortunately that snow can be below 10-1 but later on as the column cools it improves. It's also possible the coast loses maybe .25 or so to mixing or rain, but that still leaves .75-1" on most models as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does anyone have the Euro numbers for EWR? Apologies if they have been posted, but I haven't seen them in the thread. Thanks in advance... From Tombo: nyc 1 hpn .75-1 jfk 1 isp 1.25 Thats very nice. GGEM/UKIE/JMA and Euro have the exact same precip. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Who cares though. It's a nice snowstorm. I care. I always prefer a run to be stronger, wetter, and/or colder than the previous. The feelings are usually mixed. Just because I'm happy the Euro basically held serve, doesn't mean that I don't care that it significantly cut back on QPF. It's not so black and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does anyone have the Euro numbers for EWR? Apologies if they have been posted, but I haven't seen them in the thread. Thanks in advance... 0.75-1.00 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I care. I always prefer a run to be stronger, wetter, and/or colder than the previous. The feelings are usually mixed. Just because I'm happy the Euro basically held serve, doesn't mean that I don't care that it significantly cut back on QPF. It's not so black and white. Who doesn't? lol 2 more big runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How far west does that 1" QPF around NYC extend? The weird thing is, there seems to be more QPF to the southwest and northeast. 1" all the way back to Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Cool, Cool. Thanks... I would be shocked if the strongest CCB doesn't show up between Earthlight's house and mine. Look at the water vapor, look at the jet streak, notice where the finger is pointing. 0.75-1.00 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 New HPC snowfall graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does anyone have the Euro numbers for EWR? Apologies if they have been posted, but I haven't seen them in the thread. Thanks in advance... Surely the model error will exceed the human error associated with extrapolating from NYC and JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Other models are all colder, so I'd give that quite a bit of consideration. But without a doubt the snow we get will likely be the pasty, plastering variety. Unfortunately that snow can be below 10-1 but later on as the column cools it improves. It's also possible the coast loses maybe .25 or so to mixing or rain, but that still leaves .75-1" on most models as snow. The euro would be what, 4" of snow for us? I consider that the bottom limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does anyone have the Euro numbers for EWR? Apologies if they have been posted, but I haven't seen them in the thread. Thanks in advance... It's just shy of an inch of liquid...all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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