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NYC CWA January 26-27 OBS and Discussion Thread


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Im starting to think even the coast will see 10:1 ratios with this now. CCBs rarely have worse than 10:1 ratios and the trend at both the upper levels and surface has been colder for about 2 days now. I would imagine that as the storm progresses, we could even see ratios increase to maybe 12:1 along the coast...with areas north and west maybe approaching 14 or 15:1. It even managed to snow 2 inches today despite winds out of the south for a good 8 hours preceding it.

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Shift that maybe 50 miles NW and we get absolutely demolished. I agree, I'm liking where we sit right now. 6-12 a good call at this juncture.

I also like the fact that the euro is on the NW side of the guidance. Hopefully that continues with the 12z run.

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Initially ratios might be lower than 10-1 and then catch up later as the column cools. It's hard to call for more than 12" in a situation like this but if it really sits over us for long enough it's possible. Looks like another plastering wet snow that dries out as we cool down. Rain should very limited if there's any at all.

Nice to see you getting so optimistic about this. :thumbsup::snowman::arrowhead:

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I also like the fact that the euro is on the NW side of the guidance. Hopefully that continues with the 12z run.

Looks like it's staying that way and we even flirt with the 0C line at 850 for a time when the lighter precip is around. I think it's very likely the other models come back to a Euro like depiction later on and we all get in on the heavy deformation snows. The NAM and even GFS just seem to be having difficulties with handling the energy handoffs and overall development of the system. Major storm incoming.

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NMM:

ARW:

Wet in Kentucky and dry in SNE. Extreme southern Ohio could get more QPF than POU and BOS. This is not an invalid scenario as the mid-levels wind themselves up along the east coast and the longwave trof amplitude decreases. It's possible the short range models are finally catching up to the extent of moist southerly flow in the south but have just not yet translated that down the road.

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LGA all sub zero 850, but first six hours of heaviest precip (.4) start over 3ºC. Second six hours (.39") and final six hours (.24) start at 1.8 and 1.1ºC, respectively

I can't guess amounts well off six hour data points, but I'd guess ballpark six inches of plaster after a change from rain. If Euro verifies.

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ECMWF doesn't do too well on sfc temps with dynamic cooling. I wouldn't take those sfc temps too literally.

LGA all sub zero 850, but first six hours of heaviest precip (.4) start over 3ºC. Second six hours (.39") and final six hours (.24) start at 1.8 and 1.1ºC, respectively

I can't guess amounts well off six hour data points, but I'd guess ballpark six inches of plaster after a change from rain. If Euro verifies.

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LGA all sub zero 850, but first six hours of heaviest precip (.4) start over 3ºC. Second six hours (.39") and final six hours (.24) start at 1.8 and 1.1ºC, respectively

I can't guess amounts well off six hour data points, but I'd guess ballpark six inches of plaster after a change from rain. If Euro verifies.

Other models are all colder, so I'd give that quite a bit of consideration. But without a doubt the snow we get will likely be the pasty, plastering variety. Unfortunately that snow can be below 10-1 but later on as the column cools it improves. It's also possible the coast loses maybe .25 or so to mixing or rain, but that still leaves .75-1" on most models as snow.

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Guest Patrick

Does anyone have the Euro numbers for EWR? Apologies if they have been posted, but I haven't seen them in the thread.

Thanks in advance...

From Tombo:

nyc 1

hpn .75-1

jfk 1

isp 1.25

Thats very nice.

GGEM/UKIE/JMA and Euro have the exact same precip. Impressive.

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Who cares though. It's a nice snowstorm.:)

I care. I always prefer a run to be stronger, wetter, and/or colder than the previous. The feelings are usually mixed. Just because I'm happy the Euro basically held serve, doesn't mean that I don't care that it significantly cut back on QPF. It's not so black and white.

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I care. I always prefer a run to be stronger, wetter, and/or colder than the previous. The feelings are usually mixed. Just because I'm happy the Euro basically held serve, doesn't mean that I don't care that it significantly cut back on QPF. It's not so black and white.

Who doesn't? lol

2 more big runs to go.

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Guest Patrick

Cool, Cool. Thanks...

I would be shocked if the strongest CCB doesn't show up between Earthlight's house and mine. Look at the water vapor, look at the jet streak, notice where the finger is pointing.

0.75-1.00 all snow

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Other models are all colder, so I'd give that quite a bit of consideration. But without a doubt the snow we get will likely be the pasty, plastering variety. Unfortunately that snow can be below 10-1 but later on as the column cools it improves. It's also possible the coast loses maybe .25 or so to mixing or rain, but that still leaves .75-1" on most models as snow.

The euro would be what, 4" of snow for us? I consider that the bottom limit.

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