TwcMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looking at some of these maps reminds me of some of the February winter storms from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 About 1.00" on the 12Z JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MJO is now in phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, the ARW is extremely dry, with 10-15 mile gradients between precip contours, in NYC/NNJ that translates to a low end warning in NYC and below warning 15 miles west of the Hudson which to me is very troublesome considering its propensity to overdue QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We had a couple in Feb, March and one in April also. Yes but the guy from Smithtown was asking about a one month time period. The Feb-Mar 1996 time frame may have gotten 3 or 4 (i.e. Heavy Snow/Winter Storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes but the guy from Smithtown was asking about a one month time period. The Feb-Mar 1996 time frame may have gotten 3 or 4 (i.e. Heavy Snow/Winter Storm). Forget in my backyard stuff, will anything be sticking in western nass cnty during tomorrow's AM rush? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 which to me is very troublesome considering its propensity to overdue QPF I will worry about it in 12 hours if it still shows that when these hi-res models really get in to their best time-frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I will worry about it in 12 hours if it still shows that when these hi-res models really get in to their best time-frame. that is a very good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Forget in my backyard stuff, will anything be sticking in western nass cnty during tomorrow's AM rush? Good question. Really depends on the snow intensity and BL temps and how fast mixing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phones have been rining off of the hook here. Pretty impressed with the amount of Gulf moisture flowing into this thing, possible severe wx in the panhandle of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phones have been rining off of the hook here. Pretty impressed with the amount of Gulf moisture flowing into this thing, possible severe wx in the panhandle of Florida. Lightning Data: http://www.strikestarus.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good question. Really depends on the snow intensity and BL temps and how fast mixing occurs. The forecasts Ive been looking at indicate there wont be anything falling during the morning rush around here though. Most of the action gets going mid afternoon and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The forecasts Ive been looking at indicate there wont be anything falling during the morning rush around here though. Most of the action gets going mid afternoon and later. I have seen the same. I am thinking an after lunch hour start time. We'll see how fast this beast starts chugging along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not worried about the meso models showing "only" an inch. We haven't really had to cut down on them this year and 24-36 hours before Fridays storm, they only had .1-.25 in the area, which was wrong. Bet on them closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Has the NMM total been posted? Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I have seen the same. I am thinking an after lunch hour start time. We'll see how fast this beast starts chugging along. Looks like a quick mover unfortunately, much like the las few storms, should be over before sunrise Thursday and we could actually see the sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Has the NMM total been posted? Thanks guys. I was about the ask the same thing, can't access it on my phone. Thanks again to all the dudes posting the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was about the ask the same thing, can't access it on my phone. Thanks again to all the dude posting the models. NMM and ARW seem to be missing from the NCEP site. maybe they threw it out today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NMM and ARW seem to be missing from the NCEP site. maybe they threw it out today Its rolling out through 9 hours now http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/model_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was about the ask the same thing, can't access it on my phone. Thanks again to all the dude posting the models. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F25%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=EUS&cat=&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&fcast=01%2F25%2F2011+12UTC+048HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NMM: ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NMM: seasonal trend is to shift things north and west....we could be in a very spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 seasonal trend is to shift things north and west....we could be in a very spot right now. Shift that maybe 50 miles NW and we get absolutely demolished. I agree, I'm liking where we sit right now. 6-12 a good call at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 beautiful ukmet map. looks like ggem. very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shift that maybe 50 miles NW and we get absolutely demolished. I agree, I'm liking where we sit right now. 6-12 a good call at this juncture. 6-12 would be what the NNM and ARW are showing....look at the purples and reds to the south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 euro PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 6-12 would be what the NNM and ARW are showing....look at the purples and reds to the south of us Initially ratios might be lower than 10-1 and then catch up later as the column cools. It's hard to call for more than 12" in a situation like this but if it really sits over us for long enough it's possible. Looks like another plastering wet snow that dries out as we cool down. Rain should very limited if there's any at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 euro PBP? Go to the PHL thread, in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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