ArtRosen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:07 PM, tmagan said: Yep. This has got to be some kind of record for the number of Winter Storm Watches in the past month. I think this is #4? And we've had two winter weather advisories. I've never seen anything like this in my life before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:10 PM, ArtRosen said: This has got to be some kind of record for the number of Winter Storm Watches in the past month. I think this is #4? And we've had two winter weather advisories. I've never seen anything like this in my life before. 1995-96. Snow storm, December 9, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 14, 1995 Snow storm, December 16, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 Ice storm, January 2-3, 1996 Blizzard, January 7-8, 1996 Snow and ice storm, January 12, 1996 http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 "Still conservatite, and not wanting to nail down an exact forecast re: totall acumulation" its only a winter storm watch, exact details will be provided when they upgrade to warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 4:55 PM, Sundog said: Just remember the MM5 is out of its range still and tends to be a progressive model. Anyone remember the days of weenies clinging to it at the last moment when we had storms that were progged too far NW by every other model? Does it go out to 42? I didnt see anyone update hour 42. Anyway Im liking a 4 - 8 for the area (more locally - enhanced wherever any banding becomes established) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:12 PM, SACRUS said: Does it go out to 42? I didnt see anyone update hour 42. Anyway Im liking a 4 - 8 for the area (more locally - enhanced wherever any banding becomes established) MM5 has about .65" for NYC total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:09 PM, eduggs said: Good'ol Canadian comes to save the day. Nice to see a more expansive NW shield on the graphics, any graphics. IMO the RGEM is superior in the short range. And together with NAM, SREFs, GFS, I'm still nervous that this tucks ENE. Regardless, things look great for the metros! Although a bit of sleet still wouldn't surprise me. Instinct says a southern stream wave pulls further NW, at least initially. This should help parts of CPA especially. Thereafter, NEPA and ENY hang in the balance. Please Euro don't **** with us. I'm sure I sound overly repetative, but oh well. Time and time again models do this with Miller A systems, especially dynamic ones like this. Just look at what is going on in the gulf today. Anyone looking at a model 36 hours out and worrying that they are 25-75 miles too far west is wasting their worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SunyMM5 is very Thumpish 3hr prcip on C NJ Coast and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:10 PM, dbc said: 1995-96. Snow storm, December 9, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 14, 1995 Snow storm, December 16, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 Ice storm, January 2-3, 1996 Blizzard, January 7-8, 1996 Snow and ice storm, January 12, 1996 http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/ How many heavy snow warnings did we have that winter? I recall we had quite a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:10 PM, dbc said: 1995-96. Snow storm, December 9, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 14, 1995 Snow storm, December 16, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 Ice storm, January 2-3, 1996 Blizzard, January 7-8, 1996 Snow and ice storm, January 12, 1996 http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/ I think only 2 of those had watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:12 PM, TheTrials said: I'm sure I sound overly repetative, but oh well. Time and time again models do this with Miller A systems, especially dynamic ones like this. Just look at what is going on in the gulf today. Anyone looking at a model 36 hours out and worrying that they are 25-75 miles too far west is wasting their worries. yea but that doesnt necc equate to the storm being bigger up the coast. as it deepens, the precip shield will shrink and bands will set up. so i usually agree with your points, but not this one. it looks like another sharp gradient cutoff will be in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's amazing is that this storm went from a heavy rain maker to a snow maker. This winter is turning to be amazing for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:14 PM, Analog96 said: I think only 2 of those had watches. I apologize if that is correct but I imagine the Heavy Snow Warnings were used in some of those instances back then. It probably comes to 4 altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:16 PM, dbc said: I apologize if that is correct but I imagine the Heavy Snow Warnings were used in some of those instances back then. It probably comes to 4 altogether. Yes, but only 2 of those were over 3" of snow in this area, that's my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ARW and NMM are coming in wet for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:13 PM, Absolute Humidity said: SunyMM5 is very Thumpish 3hr prcip on C NJ Coast and LI. wow according to the mm5 long island gets absolutely pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:17 PM, Analog96 said: Yes, but only 2 of those were over 3" of snow in this area, that's my point. What about where the guy who asked is at in Smithtown. Perhaps he had more than 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:15 PM, Snow88 said: What's amazing is that this storm went from a heavy rain maker to a snow maker. This winter is turning to be amazing for our area. make that the whole decade has been amazing and of course this winter has been a bit of a shocker with all of the doom and gloom winter is over after XMAS Long Range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:15 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: yea but that doesnt necc equate to the storm being bigger up the coast. as it deepens, the precip shield will shrink and bands will set up. so i usually agree with your points, but not this one. it looks like another sharp gradient cutoff will be in store. I never said storm would be bigger. Its where the slp tracks and where the deform sets up. Models have a terrible SE bias with deform bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM at the money hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:12 PM, TheTrials said: Just look at what is going on in the gulf today. Anyone looking at a model 36 hours out and worrying that they are 25-75 miles too far west is wasting their worries. I hope so. But our wave becomes a shortwave embedded in the flow by 30hr instead of directing the large scale flow. So the high amplitude trof and moisture feed now won't necessary translate northeast. I still think Sussex and Dutchess counties could get skunked. But for now I love the look on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:17 PM, Snow88 said: ARW and NMM are coming in wet for the area. As I've been saying for 36hrs now, these are the models to look at now, forget the globals...they're basically in agreement on track and intensity (I believe the Euro won't change dramatically), now we need temp profiles and precipitation rates and those are the domain of high-res and nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:23 PM, Snow88 said: ARW when those meso-models come in at .75-1.00 that IS NOT wet for the area....that is actually fairly dry considering you need to cut those in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:18 PM, blizzardof09 said: wow according to the mm5 long island gets absolutely pounded Yes, but if this thing moves any furthur west, its a swing and a miss for most, Already has nothing, I mean nothing for areas NW of the city. It will change again tonight and be more in its 24h wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:25 PM, ace0927 said: when those meso-models come in at .75-1.00 that IS NOT wet for the area....that is actually fairly dry considering you need to cut those in half. Why? The other models are showing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:23 PM, TheTrials said: GGEM at the money hour Lol at this epic cave by the GGEM. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:24 PM, meteorjosh said: As I've been saying for 36hrs now, these are the models to look at now, forget the globals...they're basically in agreement on track and intensity (I believe the Euro won't change dramatically), now we need temp profiles and precipitation rates and those are the domain of high-res and nowcasting Interesting split between Euro, UKMET, GGEM, Nogaps, and the NAM, SREFs, RGEM. This is setting up roughly along the globals vs. regional/hi-res. The GFS is the notable exception. The 0z Euro gave KSWF and KPOU in excess of 1.25 liquid. The hi-res models are between 0 and .3. If the Euro holds serve what do we make of that? I guess it makes much less of a difference in the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:25 PM, ace0927 said: when those meso-models come in at .75-1.00 that IS NOT wet for the area....that is actually fairly dry considering you need to cut those in half. Yes, the ARW is extremely dry, with 10-15 mile gradients between precip contours, in NYC/NNJ that translates to a low end warning in NYC and below warning 15 miles west of the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:14 PM, Analog96 said: I think only 2 of those had watches. We had a couple in Feb, March and one in April also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 5:27 PM, Snow88 said: Why? The other models are showing the same thing. that is fine- your statement was they are coming in WET and I responded with they arent...wet would be showing 2" QPF, not in line with global models. After the 0Z runs last night I really thought todays models would have exploded....they havent, they actually regressed....making me think a further EAST solution is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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