Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anything associated with the NAM with the exception of the SREF's (i.e. NMM, ARW and MM5) has to be considered curious. Euro is very key. It has been the most consistent since pushing this storm to the coast and has been solidly more than 1 inch of qpf for several runs all snow for NYC metro. If the Euro holds serve or changes insignificantly or even improves, I think that would be the clincher for 6"+ here. In this winter nothing is a clincher and i am freely willing to admit that there is a chance that this could as easily be a foot plus for NYC as easily as it could be what i am thinking for NYC, which is the greatest dynamics pushing E before reaching the area. In any event it is amazing that this went from being what percent will be rain/snow to how much snow we will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 they are both dry as is the NAM and the MM5...usually the 4 wettest models. Can stormchaser be onto to something here? the fact that Boston is getting hit hard is a head scratcher The NAM is as happy to have the CRAS supporting its back as was McCain when accepting George Bush's endorsement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 crap, I hate it when that happens. The MM5 is trying to forecast like I used to do, wait until it happens and then say..."yeah I knew that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 In any event it is amazing that this went from being what percent will be rain/snow to how much snow we will get. No argument from me on that. I don't mean to discount your thoughts I just disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ami747Snowbird Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey mets and weather junkies, I stumbled onto this site thru weather.com and I find your discourse fascinating, informative, and I have learned a lot from everyone on this board. You guys have had me glued to these forums since the blizzard late last Feb. Growing up in BOS (North Shore), I have practically witnessed everything, from the Blizzard of 78, to the absolute pounding of the 96 season, to the mini-cyclone bomb of 12/9/05 (the only time the city seriously had visions and nightmares of 78 redux). As a novice met way back during my youth, I lived for the snowstorms. I still consider myself a weather nut, and sometimes still wished I became a met. Being in the airline business now, I watch the weather like a hawk when traveling. I’m just very glad to see that the Big Apple has finally landed some REAL SNOWS for once over the past two seasons. Trust me, enjoy it while it lasts. My intuition tells me the trend will continue next month. Keep up the great work and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM is as happy to have the CRAS supporting its back as was McCain when accepting George Bush's endorsement. That is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM is as happy to have the CRAS supporting its back as was McCain when accepting George Bush's endorsement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM is as happy to have the CRAS supporting its back as was McCain when accepting George Bush's endorsement. Well...in simplified terms here is my take, the initial take looking at the models (ignoring QPF output which i know is taboo to some here unfortunately). It seems the initial slug is strong enough such that DC-PHL get a good snowstorm while those north wait for the low to take shape. DC/PHL do not really need the low to undergo bombogensis yet because the GOM has supported their snowstorm to this point. However, as the low bombs out it sucks the precip shield immediately E(as has been seen with every coastal this year). To this point anyone S and W of TTN has already receieved 6 or more inches with less to the N. Now what happens is the low really begins to strengthen and as it does so it begins to move ENE or slightly NE. By the time that it really gets going and really bombs out it is almost too late for the are between TTN/NYC(this is what i am seeing on the model depictions like it or not). This is why there is the "gap" or "jump" between the heavy precip from DC/PHL and then the BOS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM is as happy to have the CRAS supporting its back as was McCain when accepting George Bush's endorsement. Then there were those 66 house members who were "happy" to have Obama campaign for them. (just to keep it balanced.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No argument from me on that. I don't mean to discount your thoughts I just disagree. That is fine, there is a difference between disagreement and discounting. It seemed many initially wanted me labeled as a weenie or diacounted because i firmly disagreed with a certain solution(the more favorable solution for their area). To disagree is a whole other ballgame and that is why we are here posting on this message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR is going nuts, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have practically witnessed everything, from the Blizzard of 78, to the absolute pounding of the 96 season, ahh the good ol days when the only way to follow a storm was NOAA wx radio and a handful of local mets... and maybe a weather map in your local newspaper. ...and maybe you got one view of a radar on the 11pm news... and that radar had a resolution 1000x worse than anything today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 HRRR is going nuts, lol What the heck is that thing, lol. I never have seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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