mranger48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyway you can post it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Awesome deformation band ripping the city at 32 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Interesting that the GGEM looks relatively dry in Ohio and WPA early on and then relatively wet in E and SE NY, and W SNE. Sort of an inverse relationship. I trust the RGEM over the GGEM in the short term, but the GGEM looks encouraging for NYC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 you're unnecessarily strong rhetoric is what is turning people off. There is no reason you have to state what you think including things like "I bet my career that NYC won't see more than 6in." seriously? Is that necessary? How about, "I have my reservations about this storm based on the 500mb set-up, and even though this is going against most models, I have a hunch the this will underperform in areas north and east of philly." Was that really impossible? For an intelligent person like yourself it should be quite easy to phrase something that will be received well by others as opposed to phrasing it so it will be received as inflammatory. Unnecessarily strong rhetoric? Im sorry, im not trying to come across as Kim Jung Il here or anything, but that post was never inflammatory to anyone in specific. And if it ever came off that way then i sam truly sorry. I would bet that NYC did not see more then 6 inches from this snowstorm, and i do not see why that should draw such the ire that it has drawn from this group. If what i initially said seemed so inflammatory then i am sorry, its not like i am some weenie sitting at home complaining about a certain IMBY situation. To the contrary i have experienced many great snowstorms and expect to experience many more, however just based off of what i am seeing, i do not believe that this will be amongst them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The GGEM and WRF are a sight for sore eyes. I don't see anything wrong with stormchasers comment, the first one may have been a little premature but the guy is giving logical reasoning throughout his recent posts. Right or wrong it doesnt matter, this is after all a DISCUSSION board, I wouldn't be surprised if he was right either, seemed like the last 2 or 3 storms the LP moved a little bit east at the last second. Seasonal trend or just bad luck IDK. People in the city won't be affected much by a slight jog east, but people on the edge, especially with the tight gradients with seemingly every storm so far tend to make those on the fringes get hardly anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks for the post.....i have been to naperville last winter for a storm, have some friends out there. Chicago is beautiful...great city great city for sure, you know what part of naperville or no? lol big ole town. what storm?? we have done pretty well so far snow wise here, alot of 3-5" events but not the big panhandle hooker yet, hoping the euro and GEM are onto something next week for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not bored at all, i actually have experienced many a great snowstorms with more then 6" and have skiied in more then a few with greater then 3 feet. I am perfectly content with what this winter has presented to me and would be fine with just a couple inches of snow from this storm because i know there will be more to follow, and have been great ones before this. With that said, if i am not able to give my opinion on what will occur then why am i (or anyone for that matter) even posting on a weather board? I never came across as attacking anyone personally and do not appreciate at all the attacks from some that i am receiving in regards to my opinion. I am sorry that i am going against what the great computer gods are saying and formulating a HUMAN opinion. Read it again. Apparently, it was too subtle of an attempt at humor. Just wanted to lighten things up a bit. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The GGEM and WRF are a sight for sore eyes. I don't see anything wrong with stormchasers comment, the first one may have been a little premature but the guy is giving logical reasoning throughout his recent posts. Right or wrong it doesnt matter, this is after all a DISCUSSION board, I wouldn't be surprised if he was right either, seemed like the last 2 or 3 storms the LP moved a little bit east at the last second. Seasonal trend or just bad luck IDK. People in the city won't be affected much by a slight jog east, but people on the edge, especially with the tight gradients with seemingly every storm so far tend to make those on the fringes get hardly anything at all. Thank you very much. I agree that my first post may have seemed like an "abandon ship" post and I am sorry for that. Not my intentions in the least bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Awesome deformation band ripping the city at 32 hrs sitting pretty in that image for sure, I gotta get out there for one of these sometime soon. and there is our weak SN coming down the shoot out of MN with the first lead s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Lol, ARW looks to be decent but the NMM is definitely west...it's inland over HSE at 21 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The GGEM and WRF are a sight for sore eyes. I don't see anything wrong with stormchasers comment, the first one may have been a little premature but the guy is giving logical reasoning throughout his recent posts. Right or wrong it doesnt matter, this is after all a DISCUSSION board, I wouldn't be surprised if he was right either, seemed like the last 2 or 3 storms the LP moved a little bit east at the last second. Seasonal trend or just bad luck IDK. People in the city won't be affected much by a slight jog east, but people on the edge, especially with the tight gradients with seemingly every storm so far tend to make those on the fringes get hardly anything at all. its only a pro snow discussion board...just like in real life most people have a hard time dealing with the truth or bad news etc....this is salvation for most...some people resort to alcohol, some to narcotics....and the rest live for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GEFS agrees with the GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup..the ARW is slipping the precip field east..NMM still looks pretty far west. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Unnecessarily strong rhetoric? Im sorry, im not trying to come across as Kim Jung Il here or anything, but that post was never inflammatory to anyone in specific. And if it ever came off that way then i sam truly sorry. I would bet that NYC did not see more then 6 inches from this snowstorm, and i do not see why that should draw such the ire that it has drawn from this group. If what i initially said seemed so inflammatory then i am sorry, its not like i am some weenie sitting at home complaining about a certain IMBY situation. To the contrary i have experienced many great snowstorms and expect to experience many more, however just based off of what i am seeing, i do not believe that this will be amongst them. thats fine, no one is knocking you for having an opinion. But not being able to recognize the difference between what strong rhetoric is vs my example means that you aren't aware of the fact that you are sounding like a disgruntled weenie. No need to make statements as absolutes or bet your career. Just state your opinion, and why and leave it at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GEFS are a bit west of the OP in NJ and NW NJ...1.00" liquid actually gets pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This will freak people out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This will freak people out... its because it cant find any more shortwaves to phase so its just says the hell with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This will freak people out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 great city for sure, you know what part of naperville or no? lol big ole town. what storm?? we have done pretty well so far snow wise here, alot of 3-5" events but not the big panhandle hooker yet, hoping the euro and GEM are onto something next week for here. Its was outside part of the city towars auroa.....not in the downtown area...which has great bars and etc....the storm was the first week of december....ur snowfalls and temps are like nothing i have seen before.......really cool weather wise...and i know we get are bombs.....but snowfall in ur area has not been bad at all the last few years......07-08 you guys killed it....If i had a offer i culd not refuse i would move out there in a min. Chicago is great...and they should give tips to the big citys of the northeast how to handel snow....they have that down to a science for removal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 so its the SREFS/GGEM/RGEM/GFS/GEFS so far versus the NAM/UKMET I'd take the former in any situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM/ARW/MM5/Ukie (??) vs. GFS/RGEM/SREFS/GGEM... I don't know guys, the second group is a lethal combination, and if the Euro joins, well then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 thats fine, no one is knocking you for having an opinion. But not being able to recognize the difference between what strong rhetoric is vs my example means that you aren't aware of the fact that you are sounding like a disgruntled weenie. No need to make statements as absolutes or bet your career. Just state your opinion, and why and leave it at that Not disgruntled in any way. From a guy who goes to Kean ( set the record with the boxer day storm at 32") i have very little to be disgruntled about. And again sorry if it came off in the manner. The "i bet my career" was as much an attempt at humor as Sampson's attempt at humor at me telling me i was bored with 6" snowstorms. Both were subtle and apparently not recognized by some. On the same token those telling me that i will be asking "would you like fries with that" for the rest of my life were a bit premature as well. With that said, i am not here to get into any arguments with anyone, like i said i have been a religious follower and casual poster on weather boards going all the way back to WrightWX (those of you who recognize the name) for the better part of the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ace your are too funny. This is a weather board what in gods name do you expect...people come her to say, "oh I hope the weather never happens" lol come on dude you just proved my point. MOST HAVE NO CARE ABT WEATHER. People care abt 2 things for the most part (hurricanes and snow)....that isnt "weather" that is part of weather. Look im here as well....so I got two vices...alcohol and weather...i have 2 strikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup..the ARW is slipping the precip field east..NMM still looks pretty far west. What a mess. The NMM and ARW seem to be worlds apart based on their simulated radars. It looks like guidance will be split tonight with big storm vs. light storm, with the UKMET as the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NMM hi res is working on a hige deform band at 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 so its the SREFS/GGEM/RGEM/GFS/GEFS so far versus the NAM/UKMET I'd take the former in any situation Add the WRF and the NMM to the left hand side and the Ukie has .75 qpf in the vicinity, hardly in the NAM's camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 According to some of you, from the same set of model runs we can logically explain two completely opposite forecasts. Either someone doesn't know what they're talking about or the models are as vague as the oracle of Delphi. I tend to believe the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This will freak people out.. That's it, I'm jumping ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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