isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not using model QPF output. Let me correct myself. I am looking at H5 setups. Some people are too worried and focused on SLP and QPF outputs and would never know what to do when presented with an H5 map. With that said, it is foolish not to use any guidance at all. However when making a forecast, one should examine all the options on the table and weigh one against the other, and just because someone goes against what a specific dataset has to offer does not neccesarily mean they are wrong or deserve to be flamed. With that siad i stand by my call that NYC will end up with less then PHl because the best dynamics will have shifted E and S of the city by that point. I agree, NYC will have less than Phl. If that's what you were trying to get across here, I think most of us would understand. What you were saying made it seem like you were suggesting NYC get SIGNIFICANTLY less than Phl, as in Phl getting 8" and NYC getting 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ggem 12 hours. Closed 500 with low right on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Why don't you bet your posting abilities instead? Reported to the mods Just because i am going against EXACTLY what the models are saying makes me wrong and presents that i should be banned? Thats the problem with meteorology these days- Everyone takes these models and hugs them like a hippy democrat hugs a tree in South America. If you cant come up with your own opinions or interpretation then what good is the science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can he say "Do you want fries with that?" I'd bet that meteorology is not your career. Jesus man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So, what's the verdict on the Ukie? How much QPF does it have for the area? .5-.75, which if all snow is a solid 5-8" type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 10-12" line on the gfs clown map almost perfectly straddles I-95 and goes south and east .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 10-12" line on the gfs clown map almost perfectly straddles I-95 and goes south and east .. Anyway you can post it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". seems like you're extremely bored of getting less than 6", and somewhat bitter. You should hit some of the spots down in DC; you might even get a good snowstorm while you're there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can he say "Do you want fries with that?' Never worked at McDonald's a day in my life and never would. No offense to those that choose that as a place of employment however it is not my first choice. Actually i have a decently paying job and an internship coming up with Nasa this summer. I am not claiming to be a genius by any means however i am no schmuck either thank you. I am a meteorology major and am almost finished with it and will be progressing on to grad school. So i would appreciate that those who have nothing complimentary to say just rather say nothing at all. As i am not here to argue with anyone, yet to just give my own opinion as i have been with much respect on weather boards for the better part of the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I found it interesting that Lee Golberg jackpotted I-84 in CT and extreme eastern NY. I'm not quite sure how he got that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Reported to the mods Just because i am going against EXACTLY what the models are saying makes me wrong and presents that i should be banned? Thats the problem with meteorology these days- Everyone takes these models and hugs them like a hippy democrat hugs a tree in South America. If you cant come up with your own opinions or interpretation then what good is the science? It's not very good for forecasting. The science is built into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Reported to the mods Just because i am going against EXACTLY what the models are saying makes me wrong and presents that i should be banned? Thats the problem with meteorology these days- Everyone takes these models and hugs them like a hippy democrat hugs a tree in South America. If you cant come up with your own opinions or interpretation then what good is the science? Did I say to be banned? Lol how did you interpret that? You bet your career. I figured with that type of confidence you would bet something less risky, like say, weather board posting. But good for you that you reported it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Never fear, the SPC WRF is here. Has the surface low tucked in similarly to the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ggem 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 forgot my cousin is back at school in East Stroudsburg, PA. going to try to get her to give me some updates throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Much further west than the NAM at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 seems like you're extremely bored of getting less than 6", and somewhat bitter. You should hit some of the spots down in DC; you might even get a good snowstorm while you're there. Not bored at all, i actually have experienced many a great snowstorms with more then 6" and have skiied in more then a few with greater then 3 feet. I am perfectly content with what this winter has presented to me and would be fine with just a couple inches of snow from this storm because i know there will be more to follow, and have been great ones before this. With that said, if i am not able to give my opinion on what will occur then why am i (or anyone for that matter) even posting on a weather board? I never came across as attacking anyone personally and do not appreciate at all the attacks from some that i am receiving in regards to my opinion. I am sorry that i am going against what the great computer gods are saying and formulating a HUMAN opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 70's and the 80's if we had these boards then people in NYC would be jumping out of windows LOL man it was like a desert beggars can't be choosy. I know!!! What did our parents and grandparents do? Raise their kids, I guess. And wake up either very shocked or very pleased, depending. Ahhh, such is progress. I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Never worked at McDonald's a day in my life and never would. No offense to those that choose that as a place of employment however it is not my first choice. Actually i have a decently paying job and an internship coming up with Nasa this summer. I am not claiming to be a genius by any means however i am no schmuck either thank you. I am a meteorology major and am almost finished with it and will be progressing on to grad school. So i would appreciate that those who have nothing complimentary to say just rather say nothing at all. As i am not here to argue with anyone, yet to just give my own opinion as i have been with much respect on weather boards for the better part of the last 10 years. you're unnecessarily strong rhetoric is what is turning people off. There is no reason you have to state what you think including things like "I bet my career that NYC won't see more than 6in." seriously? Is that necessary? How about, "I have my reservations about this storm based on the 500mb set-up, and even though this is going against most models, I have a hunch the this will underperform in areas north and east of philly." Was that really impossible? For an intelligent person like yourself it should be quite easy to phrase something that will be received well by others as opposed to phrasing it so it will be received as inflammatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok please do... Im standing firmly by my thoughts that NYC will not get more then 6". 6" is within the range of pretty much every forecast i've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 forgot my cousin is back at school in East Stroudsburg, PA. going to try to get her to give me some updates throughout the storm. Awesome! Love your posts man...it's cool how you post here during the Nor'easters. Thanks bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM should be a solid 25mm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ggem 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Never fear, the SPC WRF is here. Has the surface low tucked in similarly to the RGEM. Woah shouldn't this look a lot more like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Never fear, the SPC WRF is here. Has the surface low tucked in similarly to the RGEM. ahh if only if it was May the night before a chase in a cheap hotel in western KS lol. anyone wan't to link me to the site that throws out the GEM the fastest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Woah shouldn't this look a lot more like the NAM? Usually does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ggem is a nice hit. lines up well to its 12z. spc wrf is hot! guess all the wrf don't just follow the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM is similar to the RGEM, and nowhere near the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 forgot my cousin is back at school in East Stroudsburg, PA. going to try to get her to give me some updates throughout the storm. Thanks for the post.....i have been to naperville last winter for a storm, have some friends out there. Chicago is beautiful...great city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 ahh if only if it was May the night before a chase in a cheap hotel in western KS lol. anyone wan't to link me to the site that throws out the GEM the fastest? Amazing model..it's been dead on within 10-20 miles the first two or three storms this year. Heres the canadian site http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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