Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm glad you're so sure. I for one will let it play out before start declaring winners Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". I'd bet that meteorology is not your career. Jesus man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm going with the seasonal trend...I think the system will in the lack of any major blocking come up the coast faster than modeled and as a result the CCB will wind up impacting areas much further N and E than some of the models are saying before it can get shunted eastward. wow, any farther east and NW NJ will be sunny at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". Then you would be fired if you were working for broadcasting... Are you serious? come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd bet that meteorology is not your career. Jesus man. If i work at mcdonalds i would find it easy to put my career on the line also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". great call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This has just been archived. Ok please do... Im standing firmly by my thoughts that NYC will not get more then 6". There is no meteorological basis behind this? How about a low that develops and then immediately gets strung out to the E? Immediately collapsing the massive precip shield from WV/PA and PHL area Ewrd before getting N enough to significantly affect the NYC area. I have my reasonings and just because they are against what you are thinking does not make them less valid. Could they end up being wrong? Sure. But i am not hugging any model that shows a specific QPF output but rather making my own forecasts based off of what I am seeing MYSELF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have doubted the RUC three times this winter, it's been almost spot on all three times. So I present the RUC, although far out in it's range. Looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 People need to decipher and interpret the pattern and dynamics over the models. I would not worry about guidance, I think everything is still on track. I have seen this before every storm this year where the models for some reason seem to scale back right before the event, but the solution that unfolds is more like what was originally depicted. For those on the fringe/concerned, most model guidance before the 12/26 event cut my area back in terms of qpf from over an inch to .5. I still ended up receiving 24+ inches of snow here in NNJ. I would not be to concerned especially with a storm that is so moisture latent and dynamic. You all need to relax and not worry so much because that won't change anything, just wait till the snow starts falling tomorrow and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". So what? If it happens, it happens, there is nothing we can do about it. If there is lack of precip, if there is more, all we can do is analyze the data and which models have a better handle on the system, and its dynamics. This has been a great winter nonetheless, so if NYC gets only 4-6" instead of 6-10", then oh well, maybe it's a dissapointment for some, but it's still snow, and we'll have to deal with whatever we get. It's still gonna snow, and for me that's all that matters. I'm a snowlover, pure and simple, and of course the more the merrier, but sometimes things don't work out the way you want them to. Deal with it. We're still 24 hours out, and the most consistent GGEM and Euro haven't come out yet. Chill.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". Every model? Are you delusional. The officially in error NAM and the MM5 (runs off the NAM) are the only ones truly backing off a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok please do... Im standing firmly by my thoughts that NYC will not get more then 6". There is no meteorological basis behind this? How about a low that develops and then immediately gets strung out to the E? Immediately collapsing the massive precip shield from WV/PA and PHL area Ewrd before getting N enough to significantly affect the NYC area. I have my reasonings and just because they are against what you are thinking does not make them less valid. Could they end up being wrong? Sure. But i am not hugging any model that shows a specific QPF output but rather making my own forecasts based off of what I am seeing MYSELF. so they could end up being wrong but youre willin to bet your career against it? you must hate your job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Every model? Are you delusional. The officially in error NAM and the MM5 (runs off the NAM) are the only ones truly backing off a tad. UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have doubted the RUC three times this winter, it's been almost spot on all three times. So I present the RUC, although far out in it's range. Looks good for now. The RUC has had a westward bias but that said, I'm glad seeing the low over Ocean City than 100 miles offshore...if it was offshore by a bit I'd be very worried right now given the RUC's seasonal tendency but I am glad to see it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok when most every model is backing off more and more and showing the greatest VV's and CCB setting up MUCH further south then NYC area i dont know what else you can think. Again, ive said it before and will say it again, models about 48 hours before the event always have a couple dream runs showing some great solution. Once the event gets to within 24 hours they start backing off, this is clearly what we are seeing tonight. I would bet my career on the line that NYC does not end up with more then 6". Except of course for 12/26 and 1/12 of this winter. Not to mention the storm we had last week that the NAM downgraded to not even 0.25" liquid around NYC when we ended up in some cases with double what the NAM printed the night of the event. These Gulf originated storms are very prone to mode feedback errors because of their convective nature. For whatever reason, the NAM seems to be susceptible to this kind of error and overcorrects a number of times. The RGEM did not back off one bit from its last run, the GFS still looks very healthy for most of us, and we haven't seen the remainder of the suite yet. I could really care less right now what the UKMET (which has a tendency to flip solutions like a deck of cards) and the NAM say. If the other models not really affiliated with them flip, I'll become more wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So what? If it happens, it happens, there is nothing we can do about it. If there is lack of precip, if there is more, all we can do is analyze the data and which models have a better handle on the system, and its dynamics. This has been a great winter nonetheless, so if NYC gets only 4-6" instead of 6-10", then oh well, maybe it's a dissapointment for some, but it's still snow, and we'll have to deal with whatever we get. It's still gonna snow, and for me that's all that matters. I'm a snowlover, pure and simple, and of course the more the merrier, but sometimes things don't work out the way you want them to. Deal with it. We're still 24 hours out, and the most consistent GGEM and Euro haven't come out yet. Chill.. Dude are you serious? Am i complaining about getting less then 6 inches? NO. That is my THINKING. My forecast. And if it busts then i will gladly admit i was wrong. Why should i be criticized for forecasting less then what some weenies would like to hope happens? I am not complaining, and i do not need to chill.... at all. Just because i am forecasting something less then the norm does not mean i am complaining. Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Every model? Are you delusional. The officially in error NAM and the MM5 (runs off the NAM) are the only ones truly backing off a tad. Try this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok please do... Im standing firmly by my thoughts that NYC will not get more then 6". There is no meteorological basis behind this? How about a low that develops and then immediately gets strung out to the E? Immediately collapsing the massive precip shield from WV/PA and PHL area Ewrd before getting N enough to significantly affect the NYC area. I have my reasonings and just because they are against what you are thinking does not make them less valid. Could they end up being wrong? Sure. But i am not hugging any model that shows a specific QPF output but rather making my own forecasts based off of what I am seeing MYSELF. Ok...and what exactly is causing this low pressure to get strung out to the east? It doesn't go and do that all willy nilly, there needs to be some sort of mechanism. There is no semblance of a blocking high, upper level confluence, or even a Greenland block that would be responsible for that. I hope you aren't wrong. I wouldn't want you to be unemployed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ok please do... Im standing firmly by my thoughts that NYC will not get more then 6". There is no meteorological basis behind this? How about a low that develops and then immediately gets strung out to the E? Immediately collapsing the massive precip shield from WV/PA and PHL area Ewrd before getting N enough to significantly affect the NYC area. I have my reasonings and just because they are against what you are thinking does not make them less valid. Could they end up being wrong? Sure. But i am not hugging any model that shows a specific QPF output but rather making my own forecasts based off of what I am seeing MYSELF. The low hasn't developed yet and hasn't been strung out East yet. You say you are not using models then how the heck do you know the Low will do what you are saying because the errored NAM said so? I thought you weren't using models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 UKMET I'd guess the ukmet is better than the nam 0.50 - 0.75 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Except of course for 12/26 and 1/12 of this winter. Not to mention the storm we had last week that the NAM downgraded to not even 0.25" liquid around NYC when we ended up in some cases with double what the NAM printed the night of the event. These Gulf originated storms are very prone to mode feedback errors because of their convective nature. For whatever reason, the NAM seems to be susceptible to this kind of error and overcorrects a number of times. The RGEM did not back off one bit from its last run, the GFS still looks very healthy for most of us, and we haven't seen the remainder of the suite yet. I could really care less right now what the UKMET (which has a tendency to flip solutions like a deck of cards) and the NAM say. If the other models not really affiliated with them flip, I'll become more wary. The NAM tends to be much better on systems which organize well before departing the Gulf...onces which are still sort of lost til they reach the Carolina coast I find the NAM has bigger problems with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The low hasn't developed yet and hasn't been strung out East yet. You say you are not using models then how the heck do you know the Low will do what you are saying because the errored NAM said so? I thought you weren't using models. Not using model QPF output. Let me correct myself. I am looking at H5 setups. Some people are too worried and focused on SLP and QPF outputs and would never know what to do when presented with an H5 map. With that said, it is foolish not to use any guidance at all. However when making a forecast, one should examine all the options on the table and weigh one against the other, and just because someone goes against what a specific dataset has to offer does not neccesarily mean they are wrong or deserve to be flamed. With that siad i stand by my call that NYC will end up with less then PHl because the best dynamics will have shifted E and S of the city by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM tends to be much better on systems which organize well before departing the Gulf...onces which are still sort of lost til they reach the Carolina coast I find the NAM has bigger problems with. I agree, and this seems to be one of the latter kind. The NAM seems to "develop" it too suddenly and far east because it discovers the Gulf Stream and plops a massive QPF bomb there. I guess it could be right but it seldom is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd guess the ukmet is better than the nam 0.50 - 0.75 for NYC Way better than the Nam. Nam only gave the city .25-50", lol a little cutback might suck, but still a decent snow event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So, what's the verdict on the Ukie? How much QPF does it have for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 70's and the 80's if we had these boards then people in NYC would be jumping out of windows LOL man it was like a desert beggars can't be choosy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Try this It definitely progressed SE with the overall qpf. This is unfortunate for folks North and West but little changed on the GFS for other areas from 18z to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Radar shows some good returns heading toward southern Ohio. It looks like moderate mixed precip should make it well into that state as well as SW Pa. The precip shield is penetrating well north! That said, I'm not sure it will help people NW of NYC since the mid-level lows are sliding ENE that our latitude and what's left of the deform band swings through rather quickly. Looking through the SREFs there are still several members that have high QPF further north, so plenty of hope left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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