Stephen Turner Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 general question...when does Mt. Holly update forecasts? i mean, is this model enough to change the forecast for coastal Monmouth County. the last update said 1-3" for tomorrow night..latest models showing 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, even now QPF, track, and set-up of the CCB is still rather inconsistent on the models, well if the GGEM and Euro stay put then I'd think there is little to worry about. This still looks like a great .75-1.00" for many, except the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nassau County, no p-type issues here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah..the UKMet is a dud compared to it's 12z run, just going off the surface low track. I'm not getting all worked up over the UKmet, but that's not what I was hoping to see. This is a rare instance of a DC/PHL/NYC and not a Boston event...they do not happen often but this is about as good an example of one as you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I've found that 24 hours prior to the event usually verifies this winter. For some reason, the final run or two prior seems to always cut back on QPF. I'm not worried, their will be some very intense banding setting up and DC into SNE is going to get absolutly hammered by that CCB. Call me crazy but I like DT's final call the best. Call me crazy but I think areas between Philly and CT have the chance at getting close to 20+" As one NWS met has already said today, the dynmaics are going to be off the charts. I'm not buying the GFS/NAM solution. Why? Not because they are not in my best interest but because the run to run continuity with QPF and handeling of the features has been pathetic. In a year when all the models have had their issues, the NAM seems to be having the most. I would be shocked if Philly and NYC didn't both recieve > 8''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Boston area posters may have some room to complain based on both GFS and NAM, but GFS is good, if not quite epic, for Tri-State. **** Boston. They snowed this morning. NEPA and NWNJ need some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Feedback error! Man...you are relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Good God the GFS buries the Jersey Shore Monmouth county snow magnet in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 this is the same panic caused by the collapse of a couple guidance that occurred before 12/26. stay the course, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, even now QPF, track, and set-up of the CCB is still rather inconsistent on the models, well if the GGEM and Euro stay put then I'd think there is little to worry about. This still looks like a great .75-1.00" for many, except the NAM. My prediction is that we end up with GFS/GGEM/RGEM vs NAM/UKIE/EURO later on. Which camp do you side with then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ace, the MM5 looks almost exactly like the NAM in most regards including the height lines up the east coast. Nothing too exciting there, or surprising..it tends to follow the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is a rare instance of a DC/PHL/NYC and not a Boston event...they do not happen often but this is about as good an example of one as you get. there were 3 last year (well one of those was a DCA/PHL/BWI event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 a quick peek at the 0Z MM5 at 12hr (h5) would indicate that it will be more amped than the NAM....The northern energy isnt as pronounced and the kicker to the west of the main SW is also not as juicy Early amplification is nice for Ohio and CPA, but it's not necessary translating northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My prediction is that we end up with GFS/GGEM/RGEM vs NAM/UKIE/EURO later on. Which camp do you side with then? atownwxwatcher is about to kill you man, where is the NOGAPS mention? Jeez...way to know the best models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I've found that 24 hours prior to the event usually verifies this winter. For some reason, the final run or two prior seems to always cut back on QPF. I'm not worried, their will be some very intense banding setting up and DC into SNE is going to get absolutly hammered by that CCB. Call me crazy but I like DT's final call the best. Call me crazy but I think areas between Philly and CT have the chance at getting close to 20+" As one NWS met has already said today, the dynmaics are going to be off the charts. I'm not buying the GFS/NAM solution. Why? Not because they are not in my best interest but because the run to run continuity with QPF and handeling of the features has been pathetic. In a year when all the models have had their issues, the NAM seems to be having the most. I would be shocked if Philly and NYC didn't both recieve > 8''. Im going out on a limb here and firmly believe that PHL will come in > 8 and NYC will come in with significantly less. I think it is becoming ever more clear that the CCB will benefit DC-PHL and then the storm will skip greatly to the E and ENE before the good stuff gets further north then TTN. I would bet my money on PHL coming in with significantly more then NYC in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ace, the MM5 looks almost exactly like the NAM in most regards including the height lines up the east coast. Nothing too exciting there, or surprising..it tends to follow the NAM. there are subtle differences that will make a difference in the end..i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 One minor positive thing I noticed on the GFS: it increased QPF with the initial northward WAA push to the north of the surface low from 18z - 00z on Wednesday. Historically this quadrant of a storm can produce good precip. It would certainly increase the storm duration. The RGEM is similar with this feature, unlike the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow. The MM5 is even significantly de-amplified compared to it's 12z run. Not sure how it will turn out at this point but everything is certainly further east not as amplified up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Honorable mention intellicast has my area for 5-8 there very conservative and due a good job forecasting N.Y.C . She's getting fired up and taking aim at the whole area in 12hrs i'll watch buoy reports there a good tool for these systems . Good luck dudes some will win and some will lose see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 My prediction is that we end up with GFS/GGEM/RGEM vs NAM/UKIE/EURO later on. Which camp do you side with then? ugh.. don't make me choose. I bet the Euro will hold along with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow. The MM5 is even significantly de-amplified compared to it's 12z run. Not sure how it will turn out at this point but everything is certainly further east not as amplified up the east coast. ABORT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow. The MM5 is even significantly de-amplified compared to it's 12z run. Not sure how it will turn out at this point but everything is certainly further east not as amplified up the east coast. Yes this is ever more clearly becoming a PHL and south special. This is one that NYC misses out on the good stuff. Book it. The setup is NOT there by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes this is ever more clearly becoming a PHL and south special. This is one that NYC misses out on the good stuff. Book it. The setup is NOT there by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes this is ever more clearly becoming a PHL and south special. This is one that NYC misses out on the good stuff. Book it. The setup is NOT there by any means I'm glad you're so sure. I for one will let it play out before start declaring winners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow. The MM5 is even significantly de-amplified compared to it's 12z run. Not sure how it will turn out at this point but everything is certainly further east not as amplified up the east coast. Do you think the missing ob(s) had any part in this? These gulf systems are often so juiced up, and when the dynamics really catch up I can see it being explosive for some people, but I really don't think it's time to bail on anything yet. We still haven't seen the Euro and GGEM either which have been very consistent thus far, and the UKMET has tendencies to flipflop around as well. I remember some people panicking right before 12/26 as well because of some fluke model runs that developed too much convection on the Gulf Stream and robbed us back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes this is ever more clearly becoming a PHL and south special. This is one that NYC misses out on the good stuff. Book it. The setup is NOT there by any means This is utterly ridiculous. Why because (per multitudes of meteorologists and the HPC) the officially in error NAM and MM5 (runs off the NAM) said so 24 hours out? No meteorological evidence for this in any way shape or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow. The MM5 is even significantly de-amplified compared to it's 12z run. Not sure how it will turn out at this point but everything is certainly further east not as amplified up the east coast. the Stony Brook site is only out thru 12hrs....where are you seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm glad you're so sure. I for one will let it play out before start declaring winners I'm going with the seasonal trend...I think the system will in the lack of any major blocking come up the coast faster than modeled and as a result the CCB will wind up impacting areas much further N and E than some of the models are saying before it can get shunted eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes this is ever more clearly becoming a PHL and south special. This is one that NYC misses out on the good stuff. Book it. The setup is NOT there by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yes this is ever more clearly becoming a PHL and south special. This is one that NYC misses out on the good stuff. Book it. The setup is NOT there by any means This has just been archived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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