uofmiami Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS looks good through 36hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mother...of...God I can't believe we went from a possible rainstorm to another KU storm I am sorry, this is not going to be like that, KU storms are only used when we get a 1 to 2 foot snowfall. This will be very nice storm but no KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yea i really dont care what the qpf map shows... cuz this is A++++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mt. Holly: " 850's 925's RUNNING HALF A DEGREE C TO WARM" Ugh hope we don't get screwed again down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think it is important to note that the heavy blob of qpf in southern nj shOre areas is due to mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 winds have turned to a light northerly direction here, and the temp has dropped to 28.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think it is important to note that the heavy blob of qpf in southern nj shOre areas is due to mixing What are you talking about? that isnt a radar return...the qpf field should be accurate regardless of p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here is my first and only call for this storm : Philadelphia, pa : 5-8" mix to snow my guess : 7" Monmouth, nj : 5-8" mix to snow my guess : 5.2" Newark, nj : 5-8" possible mix to snow my guess : 6.4" New York, ny : 5-8" possible mix to snow my guess : 5.9" Atlantic city, nj : 2-4" rain to mix/snow my guess : 3.4" West Milford, nj : 7-10" snow my guess : 8.3" White plains,ny: 6-8" snow my guess : 6.1" Boston, ma : 6-9" snow my guess : 7.4" I like your numbers. They are very close to NWS numbers. As I like to say, a nice 5-9 inch snowfall. Nothing more. Nothing less. Pretty good snowfall most winters, but mundane for this winter. I guess living in Buffalo I have become quite used to weekly 4-8 inch snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think it is important to note that the heavy blob of qpf in southern nj shOre areas is due to mixing LOL...this is a QPF model output....not a radar return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yea i really dont care what the qpf map shows... cuz this is A++++ True, that is quite nice. GFS cut back slightly on QPF, but still a substantial hit for the area. LI gets slammed, maybe this will calm ace down lol? Cut off is extremely sharp back towards northwest NJ but if the past is any indication, just on the northwest edge of the 0.75-1.00" line is where you wanna be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 8 tenths liquid LGA through 1 am Thursday, all/most snow per barely above freezing surface and subfreezing 850s. Prolly more to come... No, 0.01 more QPF by 7 am Thursday. 8 inches, not a bad storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 EDUGGS.....this is for YOU!! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 901 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, PCPN ITSELF IS LAGGING THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS, LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF AND WRF-NMM COMPROMISE VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 00Z. THE 18Z GFS .01 ISOHYET WAS ABOUT 75 MILES TOO FAR TO THE NORTH, ITS 0.10 ISOHYET WAS VERIFYING BETTER FOR THE START OF THE MEASURABLE. WE ALSO SUSPECTED THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD CAUSE SOME MODELING PROBLEMS AND THE SFC LOW VERIFIED MUCH FARTHER NORTH (IN ALABAMA) THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD, CAN GGEM AND ECMWF VERIFYING THE BEST THERE. AS FOR THE 500MB PATTERN, THE TROF IS NOT AS SHARP AS MODELED, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 10-20M LOWER. THE RIDGING THEN TOWARD US WAS PRETTY CLOSE. THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW WAS SPOT ON. THE 850MB AND 925MB TEMP 12HR FORECASTS ARE VERIFYING ABOUT HALF A DEGREE TO DEGREE CELSIUS TOO LOW, WITH THE NAM HAVING THE LION`S SHARE OF THE COLD ERRORS. ECMWF WAS CLOSEST. IN THE SHORTER TERM, GIVEN THE LAG, WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET TO RAIN PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH LESS OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED WITH THE THINNER CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND WE`LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY RESPOND BACK UPWARD ONCE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE WEAKER TROF MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NORTHERN DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS THE TURN WE WOULD INFER WOULD BE MORE GRADUAL. THE THERMAL FIELD VERIFYING SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL GIVE US PAUSE TO SEE IF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CHANGES MUCH IN MAKING THE FINAL ADVISORY/WARNING DECISION. I don't have any problem with this in general. My problem was with identifying feedback errors off the Atlantic and determining whether or not that impacted the SLP track and eventual solution. I maintain that it is very difficult to identify causal factors in valid vs. invalid solutions. I certainly trust HPC over general meteorologists, which I alluded to. That said, it is not clear that the convection actually caused the surface position error (I happen to believe it here). This almost always happens with southern stream lows. And it also does not single out the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 gfs snowfall map off sv is 4-8 from phl-north jersey....has the 8-12 kissing costal monmouth county-nyc-east through LI(ace,alex. and william) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 True, that is quite nice. GFS cut back slightly on QPF, but still a substantial hit for the area. LI gets slammed, maybe this will calm ace down lol? Cut off is extremely sharp back towards northwest NJ but if the past is any indication, just on the northwest edge of the 0.75-1.00" line is where you wanna be. The GFS seems wetter south and east and has a sharper cutoff to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL...this is a QPF model output....not a radar return I guess I worded it wrong. Meant to say that a good portion of the qpf in those areas will not be accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Islip may have very initial mixing issues based on surface temps, hard to be sure, but GFS looks like most of the almost exactly 1 inch is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'd call that an improvement if I have ever seen one. I seem to remember the 18z having more snow to the north than the 0z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The GFS seems wetter south and east and has a sharper cutoff to the northwest. yeah that pretty much it...jackpot is pretty much holmdel in NJ...and western Li in ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I seem to remember the 18z having more snow to the north than the 0z shows. The 18z basically the 00z run but a tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I seem to remember the 18z having more snow to the north than the 0z shows. Improvement is always relative I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 SNE thread indicated UKMET has come in less than impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Speaking of radar, I don't know if anyone has looked lately...but it sure is looking impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The Boston area posters may have some room to complain based on both GFS and NAM, but GFS is good, if not quite epic, for Tri-State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yeah that pretty much it...jackpot is pretty much holmdel in NJ...and western Li in ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah..the UKMet is a dud compared to it's 12z run, just going off the surface low track. I'm not getting all worked up over the UKmet, but that's not what I was hoping to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I guess I worded it wrong. Meant to say that a good portion of the qpf in those areas will not be accumulating snow The majority of the precip. falls when the column has cooled enough for snow. When you see the soundings you'll be able to see better that Monmouth county and northeast Burlington county really get hit hard with epic CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah..the UKMet is a dud compared to it's 12z run, just going off the surface low track. I'm not getting all worked up over the UKmet, but that's not what I was hoping to see. Add the UKMET to the NAM brigade, or does it fall under a camp of its own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yeah..the UKMet is a dud compared to it's 12z run, just going off the surface low track. I'm not getting all worked up over the UKmet, but that's not what I was hoping to see. Feedback error! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 a quick peek at the 0Z MM5 at 12hr (h5) would indicate that it will be more amped than the NAM....The northern energy isnt as pronounced and the kicker to the west of the main SW is also not as juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.