MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mother...of...God I can't believe we went from a possible rainstorm to another KU storm This isn't going to be a KU storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow could you post 12z so we can make a comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mother...of...God I can't believe we went from a possible rainstorm to another KU storm Lol, far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mother...of...God I can't believe we went from a possible rainstorm to another KU storm LOL, this is NOT a KU storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 EDUGGS.....this is for YOU!! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 901 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, PCPN ITSELF IS LAGGING THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS, LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF AND WRF-NMM COMPROMISE VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 00Z. THE 18Z GFS .01 ISOHYET WAS ABOUT 75 MILES TOO FAR TO THE NORTH, ITS 0.10 ISOHYET WAS VERIFYING BETTER FOR THE START OF THE MEASURABLE. WE ALSO SUSPECTED THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD CAUSE SOME MODELING PROBLEMS AND THE SFC LOW VERIFIED MUCH FARTHER NORTH (IN ALABAMA) THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD, CAN GGEM AND ECMWF VERIFYING THE BEST THERE. AS FOR THE 500MB PATTERN, THE TROF IS NOT AS SHARP AS MODELED, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 10-20M LOWER. THE RIDGING THEN TOWARD US WAS PRETTY CLOSE. THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW WAS SPOT ON. THE 850MB AND 925MB TEMP 12HR FORECASTS ARE VERIFYING ABOUT HALF A DEGREE TO DEGREE CELSIUS TOO LOW, WITH THE NAM HAVING THE LION`S SHARE OF THE COLD ERRORS. ECMWF WAS CLOSEST. IN THE SHORTER TERM, GIVEN THE LAG, WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET TO RAIN PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH LESS OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED WITH THE THINNER CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND WE`LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY RESPOND BACK UPWARD ONCE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE WEAKER TROF MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NORTHERN DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS THE TURN WE WOULD INFER WOULD BE MORE GRADUAL. THE THERMAL FIELD VERIFYING SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL GIVE US PAUSE TO SEE IF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CHANGES MUCH IN MAKING THE FINAL ADVISORY/WARNING DECISION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So far we're NAM/eduggs vs RGEM/SREFS. Next up is the GFS. Why am I on the NAM team? I pretty clearly explained why I didn't think it was the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 could you post 12z so we can make a comparison? 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This isn't going to be a KU storm. Lol, far from it. LOL, this is NOT a KU storm... what is a KU storm?? i know it's kocin-uccellini but what makes a storm a KU storm?? is it snow amounts, impacts, etc?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow clearly its trending towards a more expansive bomb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow I'd call that an improvement if I have ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 also eduggs it looks good for areas N and W because that 10mm line on the 36hr frame looks pretty nice...gets a good chunk of the LHV Well it beats getting skunked. But I'm not in love with it. The gradient is very sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Why am I on the NAM team? I pretty clearly explained why I didn't think it was the way to go. Ok, now I'm really confused lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well it beats getting skunked. But I'm not in love with it. The gradient is very sharp. Always will be with areas of strong omega and lift and subsidence on the outside of those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bottom line is the RGEM tosses lots of 's. Somebody let tmagan post the GFS because he seems to post the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 "Feedback error" is code for "that's ugly, I don't like it." I'm going to assume you were half kidding with this...just saw this post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 what is a KU storm?? i know it's kocin-uccellini but what makes a storm a KU storm?? is it snow amounts, impacts, etc?? Quantity, Duration, Winds, Overall size of area impacted. Alot of variables can come into play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bottom line is the RGEM tosses lots of 's. Somebody let tmagan post the GFS because he seems to post the good stuff. I'm going to have my hour and a half break for tea and ice cream now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 21z SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Always will be with areas of strong omega and lift and subsidence on the outside of those bands. Where do you think the banding will set up this storm, John? Many of the models seem to be targeting LI and the Central Jersey Shore with lighter totals to the NW, but will this undergo the typical closer-to-the-coast trend that we've seen with other storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS is running, at 18 looks west?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow for all the KU naysayers...if the snow map of the RGEM becomes reality it would be a low end. If the 3 storm sin Jan/Feb 1987 are KU's this would be. It encompasses DCA, IAD, BWI, PHL, TTN, NYC, PVD, BOS all with over 1"QPF, some of them over 1.50". If its all snow that would be a widespread 10-20" snowfall. Again, im NOT SAYING THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 really? thou doth protest too much..who said I was talking about you? That much is true. And I knew who you were talking about I think. I read one or two comments about the general utility of the NAM, which were fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I gotta tell ya I am really tired of that NW cut-off. Congrats to the rest of you guys - your set of winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS thru 24 has more precip them NAM for it's whole run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS out to 18 hours looks like it may want to cut back on QPF from 18z. The h5 low is weaker and heights are slightly lower on the east coast. Also, the CCB band looks less organized and the placement of the low pressure system is dramatically further to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS crushes south-central Jersey. Very nice hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Here is my first and only call for this storm : Philadelphia, pa : 5-8" mix to snow my guess : 7" Monmouth, nj : 5-8" mix to snow my guess : 5.2" Newark, nj : 5-8" possible mix to snow my guess : 6.4" New York, ny : 5-8" possible mix to snow my guess : 5.9" Atlantic city, nj : 2-4" rain to mix/snow my guess : 3.4" West Milford, nj : 7-10" snow my guess : 8.3" White plains,ny: 6-8" snow my guess : 6.1" Boston, ma : 6-9" snow my guess : 7.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GFS is running, at 18 looks west?? qpf field maybe is.... but look at 700 or 850 is below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 the 00z gfs is .75+ for the city....Li gets 1+ and the jersey shore from monmouth county-south gets crushed...very tight graident in north jersey from west-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Also got to keep in the back of your mind that models tend to be too far se on the highest deform. It usually sets up 50 or so miles further to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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