eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 seriously, are you trolling? 00z nam looks nothing like the ukmet. Ukmet had a consolidated low tucked into chesapeake with closed h5 and expansive qpf you would expect from gulf moisture rich system. here is ukmet on ewall. UKMET is not consolidated. Don't just look at the big red L on ewall. Look at the orientation of coutours. And in terms of 500mb. If the NAM were 1 or 2 dm deeper, it would be "closed off." The difference in strength and position is minimal. The evolution is pretty similar. And it is even more apparent in earlier frames. Regardless, I wasn't arguing that they were identical, just responding to the idea that a low center elongating toward an area of "convection" is a disqualifying error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM appears at least 25mm for NYC. we'll see on the better maps later but I was gonna say 20 - 30(ish) nice run and the SREF/RGEM look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The UKMET doesn't have a spurious convective blob develop and truck NE, bringing the low with it. The NAM for whatever reason does, and it's a common error for this model. Could it be right? Sure, but probably 90% chance it isn't. RGEM is superior meso model, and it just nailed the nyc metro area. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 a fair analysis of the RGEM would be roughly 8mm for the first frame and 20mm for the second. So ya probably between 25 and 30mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 yes i thought i was at 36. I owe you all a beer for the premature bad news. Why? You were right, the RGEM did cut back QPF...by 2 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 thank god you were wrong (no offense) PHEW! Yes but I wasnt concerned even if the rgem was going light. It had done that several times. Either way RGEM is 0.80 - 1.25 (+) area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 a fair analysis of the RGEM would be roughly 8mm for the first frame and 20mm for the second. So ya probably between 25 and 30mm Parts of LI and Jersey appear to be close to 40mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM is JUICED, especially for the NJ shore and LI. NYC is an easy 25-30mm on this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM brings the 10mm line to NYCs doorstep by 00z Thursday. There should be more to come... Looks pretty sweet for NYC and LI. And it continues to contrast the NAM's relative min QPF in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So far we're NAM/eduggs vs RGEM/SREFS. Next up is the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks pretty sweet for NYC and LI. And it continues to contrast the NAM's relative min QPF in CT. also eduggs it looks good for areas N and W because that 10mm line on the 36hr frame looks pretty nice...gets a good chunk of the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So far we're NAM/eduggs vs RGEM/SREFS. Next up is the GFS. Now that is laugh out loud funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Better view of the RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 a fair analysis of the RGEM would be roughly 8mm for the first frame and 20mm for the second. So ya probably between 25 and 30mm 28 millimeters = 1.1023622047 inches Lol! Good sign on the RGEM. Beautiful system to see develop on those maps. Hopefully IT will lead the way for the rest of the suite and not the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its laughable that people in this thread defend the NAM and then EXPECT the other models to follow suit with a drastic QPF reduction. Its not model-ology its meteorology. This post is laughable. Three incorrect statements in 2 sentences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow wow!!!.... central coastal nj long island up through conneticut is like 1+in. qpf great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow Thats in mm. Divide those totals by 2.5 for snow totals in a 10:1 ratio btw, the 02Z RUC is gung-ho on front end snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow, and it even shows snow for CNJ warm bias and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow I'm riding the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 here the color maps, the rgem actually brings in a good slug within first 12 hrs then the main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow It actually did cut back QPF in northwestern NJ and northwestern CT. Increased QPF in central NJ, especially coastal areas. This is in reference to the 00z when comparing it to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This post is laughable. Three incorrect statements in 2 sentences. really? thou doth protest too much..who said I was talking about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thats in mm. Divide those totals by 2.5 for snow totals in a 10:1 ratio btw, the 02Z RUC is gung-ho on front end snow! jesus is that possible snowing in cnj at 9 am? or is ruc out to lunch? god please be so i dont wanna go to classssssssssssssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow i like the placement of the red dot....bluewave, alex and myself will be very happy if that comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 really? thou doth protest too much..who said I was talking about you? lets move on, clearly the eduggs model has initialization errors. In case anyone is having trouble looking at the rgem totals, use microsoft paint and zoom its much easier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The UKMET doesn't have a spurious convective blob develop and truck NE, bringing the low with it. The NAM for whatever reason does, and it's a common error for this model. Could it be right? Sure, but probably 90% chance it isn't. Well it's true that it is more extreme in this regard than other models starting at 24hr in particular. I hope this is responsible for diminishing the intensity of the deform band as it swings through, ultimately erroneously. But every other model slides the SLP ENE at this point and a few elongate in a similar manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mother...of...God I can't believe we went from a possible rainstorm to another KU storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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