SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM looked like it had the right idea initially and then lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Matt Noyes is live streaming on his site now and he is really bashing the Nam. He is saying that the Nam is full with errors. last time we heard the NAM/GFS had errors it snowed 20+".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol thats exactly how we feel in the out here with its performance as of late for several systems. Yup, it's flip flopping like a fish out of water. I wonder if it has something to do with the convection..or grid scale feedback..whatever it might be..to be quite honest, the model sucks lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Who cares about the NAM? 9PM SREF's are steadfast. t's time to monitor the SREF's. Fortunately, they really have not budged. All in all, a reasonable 5-7 inch snow from DCA up to BOS. Srefs are from 4:00pm and have no 0z data in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wait until the RGEM at 0310Z before making any declarative statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If the situation were reversed, where all major guidance except the NAM showed a miss but the NAM gave us a snowstorm, you'd be in here with a flame thrower for any NAM huggers WRONG- correct me of im wrong but last year the NAM was the model that lead the charge on a few snow storms...and it was correct...that is what bothers me. I happen to like the NAM a lot more than the GFS..especially 24-36 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup, it's flip flopping like a fish out of water. I wonder if it has something to do with the convection..or grid scale feedback..whatever it might be..to be quite honest, the model sucks lately. What stinks more is that MM5, Arw and NMM will be pretty much useless tonight since they get a lot of data from NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Who cares about the NAM? 9PM SREF's are steadfast. If we go by the NAM, BOS sees flurries and they are under a WS Warning already. I don't remember the last time OKX had an event with egg on face (well, I do...1999...WS Warning issued and dropped in a 6 HR period!) It's time to monitor the SREF's. Fortunately, they really have no budged. All in all, a reasonable 5-7 inch snow from DCA up to BOS. The worst OKX event by far was their performance the night of 12/25/02...their AFD at 7pm said "some snow was occurring"...that was back in the days when the NWS tried to cover up busts by doing things like not putting a 4 inch report or a 6 inch report in a PNS statement if it did not verify their advisory/warning...Upton though I think is one of the better offices in the country and I've lived all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RSM gives the area 1.00-1.25 QPF. there is the difference...closed 500MB low. RSM has it, NAM does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Yup, it's flip flopping like a fish out of water. I wonder if it has something to do with the convection..or grid scale feedback..whatever it might be..to be quite honest, the model sucks lately. ya with some mesoscale situations it seems to handle things better than the lower res models do but lately...nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What stinks more is that MM5, Arw and NMM will be pretty much useless tonight since they get a lot of data from NAM. Wouldn't call them useless, but they like to follow the NAM. We'll see what's really going on when we get a look at them and see if they're further north and west. I'd like to see the GFS hold or tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 WRONG- correct me of im wrong but last year the NAM was the model that lead the charge on a few snow storms...and it was correct...that is what bothers me. I happen to like the NAM a lot more than the GFS..especially 24-36 hrs out. i might tend to prefer it in that time range as well...but not when i know the gfs and euro agree. Ill take the euro in any time frame over any other model (meso's not included). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What stinks more is that MM5, Arw and NMM will be pretty much useless tonight since they get a lot of data from NAM. is it possible the NAM is right, so they will be useful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wouldn't call them useless, but they like to follow the NAM. We'll see what's really going on when we get a look at them and see if they're further north and west. I'd like to see the GFS hold or tick NW. RGEM holding at 10:10 will be telling. If it also does what NAM just did then we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Too bad the overrunning doesn't setup earlier Wed morning and last throughout the day before the mid-level deformation swings through. By the time it finally does, the entire structure is deteriorating, and modest lift pulls out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i might tend to prefer it in that time range as well...but not when i know the gfs and euro agree. Ill take the euro in any time frame over any other model (meso's not included). aaaah, magic words. the EURO disagrees. even though its been less than stellar this year, its still better than the GFS. If the EURO follow suit later i wil lean towards the NAM....also the MM5 will be interesting, the NMM and ARW are crappy useless models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 when does ukmet come out? JB tweeted that NAM is suffering from feedback error on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The nAM is not a bad model by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM holding at 10:10 will be telling. If it also does what NAM just did then we have a problem. Why? I have seen the NAM and RGEM move lockstep in the same wrong direction many times. If the Euro flops the same way that would be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Too bad the overrunning doesn't setup earlier Wed morning and last throughout the day before the mid-level deformation swings through. By the time it finally does, the entire structure is deteriorating, and modest lift pulls out quickly. The NAM is quite unreliable with timing and can be too slow...thats one thing I always use the GFS on over it unless they are both agreeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I got this from another site. SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0132Z WED JAN 26 2011 THE 00Z NAM MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...68 CONUS...4 MEXICAN...AND 3 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... TBW/72210 - BALLOON FORCED DOWN BY ICING CONDITION...10151.APX/72634 - CODE 10159. MZT/76458 - CODE 10159. CWD CONTINUES UNTIL 26/0500Z. GOES-E RSO ONGOING UNTIL 26/0315Z. $$ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP I found the issue lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The nAM is not a bad model by any means Never said it wasn't a good model. It has its moments though. All Im saying is that it can be VERY volatile with QPF from even 6-12 hours out. Watch the 6z NAM at 6hours and compare it to the 00z run at 12 hours....Trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 is it possible the NAM is right, so they will be useful? Multiple meteorologists have already stated the NAM is suffering from errors. Let the rest of the 0z suite roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I got this from another site. I found the issue lol There it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Multiple meteorologists have already stated the NAM is suffering from errors. Let the rest of the 0z suite roll in. what are the errors exactly? I was under the impression this was going to have possible new data for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I got this from another site. I found the issue lol Lol that is classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Does anybody have the link to that one website which has the plethora of RGEM/GGEM graphics and all that? I never had the chance to bookmark it. It's some kind of web page with a whole bunch of text and you have to scroll down and click a certain link to enter. http://www.meteo.gc.ca/vizaweb/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 when does ukmet come out? JB tweeted that NAM is suffering from feedback error on this run... Yeah, the "feedback error" is from JB's NY subscribers. They're pissed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I am pretty sure the Suny MM5 runs off the eta, not the NAM. Here is teh MM5 page. I wouldn't worry about the NAM, it has been behind the 8 ball on this storm from the beginning. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/info.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 http://www.meteo.gc.ca/vizaweb/index_e.html Asking me for a password Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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