Bobby Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Maybe if you live on Buoy 5430. 0C 850 doesn't even touch Long Island on this run...there's too much of a confluent flow early. The QPF field can still bump northwest without a thermal profile adjustment. http://www.nco.ncep....ef_b2m_033s.gif I may be nuts but I HIGHLY doubt the NW areas of Suffolk County will see mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 h7 24 panel looks encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just will not budge... Through 33 hrs .25-.50 for NYC .50-.75 for PHL .75-.100 south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very rarely do the SREF come in wetter, and the NAM come in drier. But I guess it continues it's disagreement. Certainly didn't expect that...but we will see where the rest of the 00z suite brings us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just will not budge... Through 33 hrs .25-.50 for NYC .50-.75 for PHL .75-.100 south of there Isn't NAM getting into its "zone" right about now? Are these totals concerning?? I just don't get this NAM.. it seems like for each storm it is all over the place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I may be nuts but I HIGHLY doubt the NW areas of Suffolk County will see mixing. What a winter for us so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just will not budge... Through 33 hrs .25-.50 for NYC .50-.75 for PHL .75-.100 south of there Earthlight, QPF for NJ? this comment will be deleted any minute just like the rest of them so please post if u can. thanks for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nam still looks a little funny. A piece of vorticity escapes northeast. It still was a odd run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 True, just being flip, but if it goes 200 miles NW it would rain. Doubt it will happen though; it's not the early 1970,s when this happen all the time in NYC Not to go OT, but me remembering the early 70s as quick snow to rain or just all rain almost every storm as a Catholic school kid in Amityville has a basis in reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Isn't NAM getting into its "zone" right about now? Are these totals concerning?? I just don't get this NAM.. it seems like for each storm it is all over the place.. NAM doesn't really have a "zone" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Earthlight, QPF for NJ? this comment will be deleted any minute just like the rest of them so please post if u can. thanks for the updates! You do know he is a moderator, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM doesn't really have a "zone" NAM is going to make a lot of enemies if its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Surface low a bit to the west..and slower with UVV's also to the west and northwest through 24 hours compared to 18z That might bring a higher wind further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very rarely do the SREF come in wetter, and the NAM come in drier. But I guess it continues it's disagreement. Certainly didn't expect that...but we will see where the rest of the 00z suite brings us. its really bothersome and very concerning to me that the NAM wont budge. When it pulls this type of thing its usually correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow that was a hideous run. Things looking up for southern Ohio, SW and C Pa, and WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Earthlight, QPF for NJ? this comment will be deleted any minute just like the rest of them so please post if u can. thanks for the updates! Just look at the map, or are your map reading skills so bad you can't figure out which county you live in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Earthlight, QPF for NJ? this comment will be deleted any minute just like the rest of them so please post if u can. thanks for the updates! He already said what NJ gets, in the post you quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey guys, Im from Philly, but I'll say this, I would not worry too much about the NAMs depiction right now, like Earthlight said, rarely do you see the SREFs come in wetter and the NAM drier. Throughout the years of watching the NAM it is very volatile with QPF from run to run. All I know is upper levels trended better for everyone, although the QPF didn't. We still need the 500mb low to kind of go negative a bit quicker, well see what the rest of the high-res models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Matt Noyes is live streaming on his site now and he is really bashing the Nam. He is saying that the Nam is full with errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM seems like it is saying that the intense convection over the SOutheast will pull the loe east and cut of support for deeping and VV in the CCB region of the storm. The NAM seems to be the only model doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its really bothersome and very concerning to me that the NAM wont budge. When it pulls this type of thing its usually correct. Not really when it is on it's own like this. We need to see how the rest of the suite goes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM seems like it is saying that the intense convection over the Southeast will pull the low east and cut of support for deeping and VV in the CCB region of the storm. The NAM seems to be the only model doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 its really bothersome and very concerning to me that the NAM wont budge. When it pulls this type of thing its usually correct. If the situation were reversed, where all major guidance except the NAM showed a miss but the NAM gave us a snowstorm, you'd be in here with a flame thrower for any NAM huggers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RSM gives the area 1.00-1.25 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM doesn't really have a "zone" lol thats exactly how we feel in the out here with its performance as of late for several systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 we just cant toss this solution, GFS run will be important. remember the NAM had been flirting with solutions like this in some earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey guys, Im from Philly, but I'll say this, I would not worry too much about the NAMs depiction right now, like Earthlight said, rarely do you see the SREFs come in wetter and the NAM drier. Throughout the years of watching the NAM it is very volatile with QPF from run to run. All I know is upper levels trended better for everyone, although the QPF didn't. We still need the 500mb low to kind of go negative a bit quicker, well see what the rest of the high-res models show. I have seen it do this before at this time frame but then at 6z before the storm it goes nuts with qpf and then holds serve at 12z or goes a tad drier but not significantly. I recall numerous incidents like that the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 something wrong with the NAM, no other model right now supports it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Who cares about the NAM? 9PM SREF's are steadfast. t's time to monitor the SREF's. Fortunately, they really have not budged. All in all, a reasonable 5-7 inch snow from DCA up to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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