TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 21z SREF's are wetter again. The .50 line has bumped west another 25-50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow. They're going nuts on the deformation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 27-33, deform band over NYC. .50"-75" in 6 hours. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20110125/21/sref_namer_033_precip_p06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Surface low is 4hpa deeper and a good bit northwest of the 15z progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any further NW and the coast will get rain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any further NW and the coast will get rain for a while. Seriously- isn't that a concern if these models keep coming a bit further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any further NW and the coast will get rain for a while. Maybe if you live on Buoy 5430. 0C 850 doesn't even touch Long Island on this run...there's too much of a confluent flow early. The QPF field can still bump northwest without a thermal profile adjustment. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_b2m_033s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seriously- isn't that a concern if these models keep coming a bit further NW Not with a NNE flow in the surface, if it was a 998mb low maybe but the system is going to be too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seriously- isn't that a concern if these models keep coming a bit further NW you would think but on the other hand, perhaps the storm will pull in enough cold air to compensate and keep it mostly snow.. just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seriously- isn't that a concern if these models keep coming a bit further NW Not really...maybe a slight concern on the SE NJ shore and Eastern Suffolk Co. You can thank the shortwave that gave our area snow today for that. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_18z/f06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not with a NNE flow in the surface, if it was a 998mb low maybe but the system is going to be too strong. Yeah exactly...also I was doing analysis earlier this afternoon for a forecast and couldn't help but marvel at how much the shortwave passing through New England helped to lower the heights over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 True, just being flip, but if it goes 200 miles NW it would rain. Doubt it will happen though; it's not the early 1970,s when this happen all the time in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seriously- isn't that a concern if these models keep coming a bit further NW I think it's a foregone conclusion that we are going to lose a few tenths of QPF to rain, especially south and east. As long as it's snowing by 7-8pm, I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 True, just being flip, but if it goes 200 miles NW it would rain. Doubt it will happen though; it's not the early 1970,s when this happen all the time in NYC If it goes 200 miles NW we just need to throw the GFS, NAM, EURO, UKIE, GGEM, RGEM, et al in the garbage and start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sorry I'm out of region, and I don't post in here much, but am I seeing things or does that show it getting into Eastern PA now? Wow. They're going nuts on the deformation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 True, just being flip, but if it goes 200 miles NW it would rain. Doubt it will happen though; it's not the early 1970,s when this happen all the time in NYC Oh yes, thank goodness those days are over, most busts now are usually due to mesoscale features or they occur in localized regions...example the S NJ rain during the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Sorry I'm out of region, and I don't post in here much, but am I seeing things or does that show it getting into Eastern PA now? The 0.50" in 6 hours gets into Southeast PA...yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Notice how the nam loses the qpf bomb offshore at 15 hrs.. That has been tugging the low east imo its last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The 0.50" in 6 hours gets into Southeast PA...yes sir. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The NAM is a bit better through 18 hours but I still don't like the way it's evolving the shortwave east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Surface low is 4hpa deeper and a good bit northwest of the 15z progs. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 question to ponder; will warnings go out in time for tonight's news casts at eleven, or will they wait til morning/middle of the night to ugrade? (i think they do it in the next hr or two). Second, in the OKX area, will anyone be left out of the warnings? I would think SE Suffolk is the only one at this point ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is pretty warm at surface at hour 18: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110126/00/nam_namer_018_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 500 heights are a smidge higher through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM is pretty warm at surface at hour 18: Most models have indicated something like that...it's around the daily max temp time...18z. It will cool off the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Surface low a bit to the west..and slower with UVV's also to the west and northwest through 24 hours compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's still trying to elongate the surface low dramatically off to the northeast...despite it having the big UVV's over the area at 27 hrs it has less expansive QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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