earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone know if the SPC WRF is in range? From what i've heard, its one of the better models for nailing down mesoscale events It goes out to 36 hours..00z tonight should be when most mesoscale models get into a better accuracy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 TWC is going with 5-8 for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 we are going to get very heavy snowfall rates if this is right http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t18z/frontb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 we are going to get very heavy snowfall rates if this is right http://moe.met.fsu.e...18z/frontb.html where exactly do those heavy rates set up exactly? trying to read that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 we are going to get very heavy snowfall rates if this is right http://moe.met.fsu.e...18z/frontb.html the black goes right over my head...should I seek shelter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the black goes right over my head...should I seek shelter? That's a great signal for strong frontogenesis. The NAM was struggling with QPF on it's 18z run. It has a weird area of subsidence where it has the best lift. Wouldn't be surprised if 00z was a wetter version of the 18z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 remember this morning when the NAM was showing the surface low over the middle of the gulf going on shore to western florida and how myself and others said that was feedback. Here is the surface low. A wee bit different than the 12z NAM. Glad it came around a little at 18z although not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 we are going to get very heavy snowfall rates if this is right http://moe.met.fsu.e...18z/frontb.html Nice, lol whoever ends up in the black band is gonna get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's a great signal for strong frontogenesis. The NAM was struggling with QPF on it's 18z run. It has a weird area of subsidence where it has the best lift. Wouldn't be surprised if 00z was a wetter version of the 18z track. yes I was saying that tongue and cheek LOL bec no matter how deep my understanding of meteorology goes, I've heard you and others talk about frontogenic forcing, UVV's, etc enough that when I see something like that (highest frontogensis on the scale) going over my head I think someone whether it be me or in some other location will have 3-4in/hr rates and thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nice, lol whoever ends up in the black band is gonna get smoked. That would be me! So waiting on the 0z meso models now but it looks like if I don't get home from work by about 7 tomorrow night it's gonna be a looong ride. Unfortunately I'm the MOD with the keys so I can't even leave the city until 7pm. 55 miles = ?? hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I remember hearing about recon flights checking the storm out to try to resolve feedback issues. Has that already taken place and has the data been implemented into guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I remember hearing about recon flights checking the storm out to try to resolve feedback issues. Has that already taken place and has the data been implemented into guidance? If I'm not mistaken tonight's 0Z models will have additional data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If I'm not mistaken tonight's 0Z models will have additional data. Ok...Thanks, that will hopefully give us a better indication of what's on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I remember hearing about recon flights checking the storm out to try to resolve feedback issues. Has that already taken place and has the data been implemented into guidance? Google is a wonderful tool. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10829-did-aircraft-soundings-get-into-the-12z-models/page__view__findpost__p__357367 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Any word on the 18z ukie? 18Z UKMET Hour 36 18Z UKMET Hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18Z UKMET Hour 36 18Z UKMET Hour 48 Thanks (to SACRUS too.) What sucks is the best frame is missing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 that looks 18z rgemish to me. The best frame is missing but the surface low postion at 36 and the trailing piece of qpf at 48 look like it would be rocking between. I also think that is 6 hour qpf for each frame, not 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18z RGEM total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 that looks 18z rgemish to me. The best frame is missing but the surface low postion at 36 and the trailing piece of qpf at 48 look like it would be rocking between. I also think that is 6 hour qpf for each frame, not 12. it does look more like 6hr qpf than 12....also without the best frame it still looks like 0.6 accumulates so extrapolated it would probably look RGEMish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 2 hr pressure drop http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Does anybody have the link to that one website which has the plethora of RGEM/GGEM graphics and all that? I never had the chance to bookmark it. It's some kind of web page with a whole bunch of text and you have to scroll down and click a certain link to enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Great read http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/at_weather_expo_top_snowstorm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thank you, yes it was. Great read http://voices.washin..._snowstorm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey John, I use this one... http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php hope that helps. Pat Does anybody have the link to that one website which has the plethora of RGEM/GGEM graphics and all that? I never had the chance to bookmark it. It's some kind of web page with a whole bunch of text and you have to scroll down and click a certain link to enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Great read http://voices.washin..._snowstorm.html He really explained the problem with this years modeling in a way that a pure amateur like my self could understand. It really makes a lot of sense. Great find A+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Game time dudes, SREF's in a few moments now. Wishing you all feet and feet of plastering, car crushing, squirrel squashing snow. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Game time dudes, SREF's in a few moments now. Wishing you all feet and feet of plastering, car crushing, squirrel squashing snow. :snowman: this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 He really explained the problem with this years modeling in a way that a pure amateur like my self could understand. It really makes a lot of sense. Great find A+ Ian posted it in the mid atl forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Get your buoy plots as the storm develops offshore here... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.