earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is pounding Philly through NE NJ and towards NYC with a frontogenic band..the 700mb signature on it and the NAM (despite the NAMs funky QPF) scream thundersnow to me..somebody's going to be very happy tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That was an awful setup as I recall. No source of cold air whatsoever and temps were in the mid to upper 40s. Plus by the time any cold air worked its way in the storm was long gone. I don't really recall which models besides the GFS showed the hit though. we should probably keep an archive section of the board dedicated towards busted storm so we can learn what went wrong and try to find similarities in other storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now I can say that the RGEM shows 1" for NYC. I was just six hours off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based on what little I can currently see on the 18Z RGEM, coastal thermal profiles are a bit questionable. Looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is pounding Philly through NE NJ and towards NYC with a frontogenic band..the 700mb signature on it and the NAM (despite the NAMs funky QPF) scream thundersnow to me..somebody's going to be very happy tomorrow night. That's what I thought I was seeing too. I'm also liking the CCB look giving us in the lower HV an extended finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks fine to me On the snapshot map it is fine, but before that is what I was questioning. The more specific maps come out in about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upton ODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 18Z ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OR CHANGING OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. BEST CHANCE OF ANY MIXING WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. BY 00Z THURSDAY...COLD ENOUGH AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. QPF VALUES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.60 AND 1.00 WHICH SHOULD YIELD SNOWFALL VALUES BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS INCREASING. It seems that most of long island will be all snow then...the south shore east end language is encouraging to us north shore folk...6-10...hell yea~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 sref 500 mb porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upton ODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 18Z ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OR CHANGING OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. BEST CHANCE OF ANY MIXING WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. BY 00Z THURSDAY...COLD ENOUGH AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. QPF VALUES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.60 AND 1.00 WHICH SHOULD YIELD SNOWFALL VALUES BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS INCREASING. It seems that most of long island will be all snow then...the south shore east end language is encouraging to us north shore folk...6-10...hell yea~ That is what I was waiting to read from Upton. I do not expect much if any mixing in extreme Northeastern NJ at any point in this storm if what pretty much all the models are showing this afternoon verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here is what I was concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM absolutely crushes almost all of us from the Poconos south. Tombo just posted the 36hr panel and it appears that NYC and Long Island are under 25mm (around 1")+ in 12 hours and the snow is still coming down hard at this hour. It looks a touch warmer than its previous run, introducing mixing concerns for LI, but everyone gets thumped majorly tomorrow night. 500mb low is closed east of NJ, ensuring a massive CCB. I would throw out the NAM's precip printout verbatim, other models are much wetter up here and more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT's final call http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/NELASTC.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Upton ODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 18Z ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OR CHANGING OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. BEST CHANCE OF ANY MIXING WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. BY 00Z THURSDAY...COLD ENOUGH AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. QPF VALUES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.60 AND 1.00 WHICH SHOULD YIELD SNOWFALL VALUES BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS INCREASING. It seems that most of long island will be all snow then...the south shore east end language is encouraging to us north shore folk...6-10...hell yea~ Keep it at the east end and maybe the eastern portion of the south shore That's the pattern we've seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT's final call http://www.wxrisk.co.../01/NELASTC.jpg If I'm reading that right, I get 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If I'm reading that right, I get 8-14". Yes sir. He is calling for snow to mix to snow for the NYC area. 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT's final call http://www.wxrisk.co.../01/NELASTC.jpg Russian roulette if you live in western Staten Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Keep it at the east end and maybe the eastern portion of the south shore That's the pattern we've seen all winter. The more of a northerly wind component we get the better, plus the drier air we get initially the better so we can wetbulb down. We won't have a problem changing over when the real dynamics hit the fan. On 2/25 last year we changed over earlier than we were forecasted to due partly to that. I don't think all of the precip we get here will be snow, but hopefully the vast majority is, since when the dynamics crash in the temps will as well and it all easily goes to a thumping snow. Hopefully the initial warm push is just light rain/mixed showers and the real precip holds off until later so not much gets wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If I'm reading that right, I get 8-14". The people on the Monmouth/Middlesex border here really get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT's final call http://www.wxrisk.co.../01/NELASTC.jpg Looks a lot like the 6-10 inches Upton has for us and the same changeover time of 7 PM also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did we just spend a page on DTs call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The people on the Monmouth/Middlesex border here really get screwed. As does Rockleigh, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice hit for everybody on the 33 hr 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS is west of the previous runs at 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0.75+" through 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Near 1" liquid over LI/NYC..PHL..NJ by 39 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Near 1" liquid over LI/NYC..PHL..NJ by 39 hrs. It's below freezing throughout the area for the whole storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Near 1" liquid over LI/NYC..PHL..NJ by 39 hrs. Wow, absolutey gorgeous evolution with this one John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, absolutey gorgeous evolution with this one John. Probably the fourth time I've heard you say that this winter ...I agree bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Near 1" liquid over LI/NYC..PHL..NJ by 39 hrs. I think even if we start with 8:1 ratios they quickly go to 10-12:1 so we basically average 10:1...looks like a solid 6-12 area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.