blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS just updated and they still have rain and snow tomorrow for the area. I don't get it. there playing it conservative haha . the temps before the main event are going to be around freezing so a rain/snow mix is possible especially along the coastal palin but when it gets going late afternoon and overnight wednesday the entire CWA will be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS just updated and they still have rain and snow tomorrow for the area. I don't get it. I'd still expect the onset and lighter precip to fall as snow to rain mix then back to heavy wet snow. The Belt Parkway wil be snow covered just after the evening rush hour tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS just updated and they still have rain and snow tomorrow for the area. I don't get it. ant i dont think its updated fully cause tuesday is still left out and it still says 1 11 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS just updated and they still have rain and snow tomorrow for the area. I don't get it. Euro has rain to snow for JFK and LGA. So do other globals to an extent. Its a good call to say rain to snow for Brooklyn and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yes, the precip shields on the GGEM/UKMET/EURO all look the same and look very healthy. The NAM and GFS dont quite look as good how did your 1-3 work out for nyc last friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sounds like some sort of high-end prostitution ring...but yea, I concur. Well we are all SNOW WHORES.... But seriously the last couple of storms have been a blast as well as a great learning experience with the group that stays bleary eyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How about 3 days ago when it looked like a flooding rainstorm? I can't believe people would complain about a 4 to 8" snowstorm rather than a foot Well, that looks just about perfect for NYC metro. Bizzare that people are complaining. Do they remember how this looked as recently as the 6Z models earlier today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro has rain to snow for JFK and LGA. So do other globals to an extent. Its a good call to say rain to snow for Brooklyn and NYC. Besides the fact that EWR is all snow and NYC is NW of both JFK/LGA and has substantially more snowpack... ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro has rain to snow for JFK and LGA. So do other globals to an extent. Its a good call to say rain to snow for Brooklyn and NYC. Based on the sum of the models, Im thinking its going to be something like 80/20 snow/rain LGA and 65/35 snow/rain JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro has rain to snow for JFK and LGA. So do other globals to an extent. Its a good call to say rain to snow for Brooklyn and NYC. yep.....some are just asking for qpf totals but thats not all snow.....there is going to be qpf wasted on rain/crap/substiance etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based on the sum of the models, Im thinking its going to be something like 80/20 snow/rain LGA and 65/35 snow/rain JFK. Agree fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How about 3 days ago when it looked like a flooding rainstorm? I can't believe people would complain about a 4 to 8" snowstorm rather than a foot Agreed especially after the surprise fresh inch today in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah it looks great...that's what I wanted to see on the SREF's as I noted earlier. There are a few duds in there that are not allowing the mean to be more expansive...but it still bumped northwest with the heavier QPF by like 25-50 miles which is really good to see on a 15z mean. I think we will know what's going on with tonights 00z models and mesoscale models. Somebodys going to get 12"+ in that band, it's just a matter of where it sets up. Each run has been increasing QPF on the SW fringe... first in Va, then Md, and now CPA. If it is still playing catchup, 1" liquid will extend back to NWNJ and ENY. If not, the gap between the initial mid-level surge and eventual wrapped up coastal could be legit. I'm still concerned about getting squarely into the precip shield up near KSWF... not even thinking about banding yet. Fortunately some spots up here in the Higlands picked up a few inches today and haven't torched quite yet to melt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ace hasn't been that bad at all lately if you ask me but he can't help what he is lol so once in a while he'll make a pessimistic call. Overall light years better than the last several winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How about 3 days ago when it looked like a flooding rainstorm? I can't believe people would complain about a 4 to 8" snowstorm rather than a foot I know it's hard to believe..this winter has been awesome for any winter lovers in this area..you can't get 2 feet of snow on every storm..if you wanna see that..then live in the Sierra mountains..the snowcover since Dec 26th for this area has been remarkable..simmer down guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How about 3 days ago when it looked like a flooding rainstorm? I can't believe people would complain about a 4 to 8" snowstorm rather than a foot This is sort of like (although more extreme) than the Feb 2009 storm which was supposed to be an apps runner, but instead we all got 4-6 inches of a nice moderate snow. Yes, there was more to our south, but avoiding an apps runner plus having an arctic airmass behind that storm made it quite memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yep.....some are just asking for qpf totals but thats not all snow.....there is going to be qpf wasted on rain/crap/substiance etc.... EWR is definitely all snow...as are areas north and west of that. Basically if you're just inland off the shore the Euro is 1"+ QPF as snow (HPN/EWR whereabouts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ace hasn't been that bad at all lately if you ask me but he can't help what he is lol so once in a while he'll make a pessimistic call. Overall light years better than the last several winters. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yep.....some are just asking for qpf totals but thats not all snow.....there is going to be qpf wasted on rain/crap/substiance etc.... Sleet is most likely, I'm having a hard time justifying anything non-frozen anymore for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know it's hard to believe..this winter has been awesome for any winter lovers in this area..you can't get 2 feet of snow on every storm..if you wanna see that..then live in the Sierra mountains..the snowcover since Dec 26th for this area has been remarkable..simmer down guys I still have drifts in my backyard in TTN from12/26 and we didn't get anywhere as much as you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sleet is most likely, I'm having a hard time justifying anything non-frozen anymore for this event. Wow, thats good to hear. Sleet helps solidify a snowpack-- as long as it sticks lol. Im thinking, regardless of temps, it should at least stick on top of the old snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sleet is most likely, I'm having a hard time justifying anything non-frozen anymore for this event. and how many storms that started as Sleet didnt go to snow pretty quick. I actually cant really remember a storm that started as sleet, was forecasted to go to snow and stayed sleet for an extended period of time....if its gonna get cold it woudl likely happen early on...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I still have drifts in my backyard in TTN from12/26 and we didn't get anywhere as much as you guys. I can't remember ever having snowcover for a month..I don't know..maybe 1978..and 93-94..so far this winter has been one of the best I could ever remember..even this morning we had snow..didn't see that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think most people should be happy considering we all thought we would get a drenching rainstorm of 2"+ with temps in the upper 40s and 50s just a few days ago. Again I would be happy to get 6", but if I fall short by a little bit, then it's okay. I'm just happy to get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it's been four years, is it safe to mention the "VD" storm without getting banned? That would be my answer... although I agree with your premise. and how many storms that started as Sleet didnt go to snow pretty quick. I actually cant really remember a storm that started as sleet, was forecasted to go to snow and stayed sleet for an extended period of time....if its gonna get cold it woudl likely happen early on...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and how many storms that started as Sleet didnt go to snow pretty quick. I actually cant really remember a storm that started as sleet, was forecasted to go to snow and stayed sleet for an extended period of time....if its gonna get cold it woudl likely happen early on...thoughts? I agree ace...but I think it will be more mixing during the light spotty precip Ahead of the wall of white which will put an end to all of the mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and how many storms that started as Sleet didnt go to snow pretty quick. I actually cant really remember a storm that started as sleet, was forecasted to go to snow and stayed sleet for an extended period of time....if its gonna get cold it woudl likely happen early on...thoughts? it would probably happen around sunset when it normally gets colder than it is during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They are beautiful..essentially similar to the OP. Cold and snow with a nice CCB over the area. Can't see total QPF but it's probably similar to the OP in that regard as well. .075-1.0 NW of NYC 1.0-1.25 SE of NYC Thanks guys! Winter storm watch as far north as Dutchess Co, NY so clearly some confidence is building on a broader NW CCB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and how many storms that started as Sleet didnt go to snow pretty quick. I actually cant really remember a storm that started as sleet, was forecasted to go to snow and stayed sleet for an extended period of time....if its gonna get cold it woudl likely happen early on...thoughts? This is true in our area. We seem to hold on to sleet much longer than other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well it's been four years, is it safe to mention the "VD" storm without getting banned? That would be my answer... although I agree with your premise. That started as snow and we got a few inches before it changed over to sleet and freezing rain at the tail end. I liked that storm because it stayed below freezing throughout, when it was progged to go over to plain rain and never did. March 2007 was pure sleet but changed to freezing rain towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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