earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 enough buddy....look at this objectively for ONCE.PLEASE...if the model is going in the wrong direction i will say so. IS THIS CLEAR? What are you talking about? Simmer down dude. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Enjoy dudes...this rocks. Thanks EL. I needed to see those. They look SO much better than last run for NNJ and SENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 enough buddy....look at this objectively for ONCE.PLEASE...if the model is going in the wrong direction i will say so. IS THIS CLEAR? Someone needs to put down the vodka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks EL. I needed to see those. They look SO much better than last run for NNJ and SENY. Yeah it looks great...that's what I wanted to see on the SREF's as I noted earlier. There are a few duds in there that are not allowing the mean to be more expansive...but it still bumped northwest with the heavier QPF by like 25-50 miles which is really good to see on a 15z mean. I think we will know what's going on with tonights 00z models and mesoscale models. Somebodys going to get 12"+ in that band, it's just a matter of where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Someone needs to put down the vodka. we are way OT, but im a single malt scotch guy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 36 looks good to me and LI is nicely treated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM puts the NYC area in between heavier bands it looks like, thus the lower QPF. Wouldn't worry about it. Obviously someone gets nailed with banding, and someone won't. Just the way it goes. I doubt this NAM run has it exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z NAM total QPF. It shifted its qpf field well NW but didnt increase it towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 100% improvement. ULL love as the convective feedback slides east and lift and ccb get going over the area, sim radar shows the groundtruth, I would imagine the next 4 runs will look better at the surface leading up to tom nights event. Should be a sick 4-8 hr period of heavy, heavy snow, 6-12 give that deposit slip to the teller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The models which tuck the surface low in closer to the coast have the H5 low closed off--it's pretty important. The NAM and other models that don't develop the big deformation right overhead have it open as it passes to our southeast. The Euro, GEM, UK, etc are a pretty good team to have in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM puts the NYC area in between heavier bands it looks like, thus the lower QPF. Wouldn't worry about it. Obviously someone gets nailed with banding, and someone won't. Just the way it goes. most models have displayed the QPF fields very strangely this entire week...gotta wonder if that is how its gonna play out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, that looks just about perfect for NYC metro. Bizzare that people are complaining. Do they remember how this looked as recently as the 6Z models earlier today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Afternoon guys. Just checking in. Looks like LI gets treated nicely AGAIN.... Looking forward to tonights runs.. And a Brooklyn Brewery Chocolate Stout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The models which tuck the surface low in closer to the coast have the H5 low closed off--it's pretty important. The NAM and other models that don't develop the big deformation right overhead have it open as it passes to our southeast. The Euro, GEM, UK, etc are a pretty good team to have in that regard. yes, the precip shields on the GGEM/UKMET/EURO all look the same and look very healthy. The NAM and GFS dont quite look as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The NAM puts the NYC area in between heavier bands it looks like, thus the lower QPF. Wouldn't worry about it. Obviously someone gets nailed with banding, and someone won't. Just the way it goes. I doubt this NAM run has it exactly right. This post is the best so far. The NAM adjusted well northwest with the QPF field which is what we wanted to see. It didn't tighten up the banding, but it will get there if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, that looks just about perfect for NYC metro. Bizzare that people are complaining. Do they remember how this looked as recently as the 6Z models earlier today? since I know this is directed at me- IT WAST A COMPLAINT. everything on these boards need to be said with a disclaimer...I WAS MERELY STATING WHAT THE NAM SHOWED....better than 6Z yes, worse than 0Z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This post is the best so far. The NAM adjusted well northwest with the QPF field which is what we wanted to see. It didn't tighten up the banding, but it will get there if you ask me. Your post makes a lot of sense. The better/longer 500 stays closed up, the more likely a solid deform swings over the whole area, and doesn't skip areas like it sort of does here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is beautiful. It finds a way to slide the vorticity east and open the H5 low in the next frame. I try not to say simple, blunt statements in analysis of the models...but it's probably wrong in doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WHY is it that every other post is taken as a dig. Guys, CHILL..... It's gonna snow. Be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, that looks just about perfect for NYC metro. Bizzare that people are complaining. Do they remember how this looked as recently as the 6Z models earlier today? The avg of all guidance is between 0.5 and 1.50 for the area. The nam and the 12z gfs showing the least qpf. None of these models can accurately project the heaviest bands, the high res models will give some guidance but clear trends DC- NYC 6 + inch snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 John - Any word on the Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is beautiful. It finds a way to slide the vorticity east and open the H5 low in the next frame. I try not to say simple, blunt statements in analysis of the models...but it's probably wrong in doing that. Very nice... Looking forward to another late night with "The Overnight Crew" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What are you talking about? Simmer down dude. Jeez. LOL the personalities on here make me laugh sometimes..... haha we have an awesome subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS just updated and they still have rain and snow tomorrow for the area. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOL the personalities on here make me laugh sometimes..... haha we have an awesome subforum Despite the bad rap this is a good crew..you guys all rock. Although if atownwxwatcher mentions the NOGAPS one more time I might start convulsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Someone needs to put down the vodka. Put down the vodka and pick up the weed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Despite the bad rap this is a good crew..you guys all rock. Although if atownwxwatcher mentions the NOGAPS one more time I might start convulsing. He's been rather quiet the last couple of days, I'm sure you've noticed and probably know why lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 John - Any word on the Euro Ensembles? They are beautiful..essentially similar to the OP. Cold and snow with a nice CCB over the area. Can't see total QPF but it's probably similar to the OP in that regard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 John - Any word on the Euro Ensembles? .075-1.0 NW of NYC 1.0-1.25 SE of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very nice... Looking forward to another late night with "The Overnight Crew" Sounds like some sort of high-end prostitution ring...but yea, I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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