Analog96 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's the time frame on the clipper? Havent seen a good clipper for what seems like a couple of years. I would say 6 AM to 5 PM Sat if I had to guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Judging by the Euro text data some of the QPF estimates from earlier were low. Most areas are over 1" including EWR and HPN. MMU gets .99" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0C 850 temperatures are not even close to the coast at this hour with the CCB hammering away how much stock do you put in the SREFs in this time range? i'm speaking "in general." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What's the time frame on the clipper? Havent seen a good clipper for what seems like a couple of years. For some reason, all the good clippers seem to have gone north of the region the las few years. Back in the late 80s/90s/early 00s, we used to have about one clipper every year deliver a good moderate hit of 3-6 inches. Granted we hardly ever got coastal snowstorms in the 80s or 90s (outside of 93-94 and 95-96). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 how much stock do you put in the SREFs in this time range? i'm speaking "in general." You can start to put more stock in them now, especially the trends. They're going wetter and north and west from the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relampago Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Official Euro QPF numbers EWR: 1.09" All snow JFK: 1.14" some mixing LGA: 1.11" some mixing HPN: 1.01" All snow Given the EURO runs a tad warm I'd be comfortable in saying almost all of the QPF with this system will be snow for NYC on northwest. I still think 6-12" is a good guess at this time with local amounts higher due to banding. That being said, the EURO is more like 10-12" for the city itself, quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's exactly what I wanted to see...it lends credence to the further northwest models. It's hard to find any SREF members (other than a stray RSM and ETA member) that have a very far southeast deformation band like some of the 12z models did. John, is there a decent chance that this comes far enough NW to introduce serious mixing issues? By serious, I mean, let's say more than 30% of that 1 inch plus QPF at JFK falling as something other than snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM more expansive with UVV's compared to 12z run thus far through 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Official Euro QPF numbers EWR: 1.09" All snow JFK: 1.14" some mixing LGA: 1.11" some mixing HPN: 1.01" All snow ISP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the storm will be closer to the coast. There is nothing to force this storm really far east. The NAO isn't really negative and the PNA is positive. There's nothing to force it north either. So then what's forcing it to do anything? Why would a model show it SE if its destiny was to move further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Official Euro QPF numbers EWR: 1.09" All snow JFK: 1.14" some mixing LGA: 1.11" some mixing HPN: 1.01" All snow Thanks looks like the ggem and ukmet and GEFS, NAM. How were the ecm ensemble north of BWI. The mid atl thread only mentioned that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ISP? 1.1" some mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM looks like it's headed for a nice hit through 30 hrs..low is tucked in to the coast compared to the 12z run and the UVV's are more expansive to the northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would say 6 AM to 5 PM Sat if I had to guess at this point. Finally, a daytime snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now this is the 1st map that i like...puts the heaviest stuff right by me...9 inches would beat our total for the 12/26 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 30 hours the deformation band is much more well developed and further northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Official Euro QPF numbers EWR: 1.09" All snow JFK: 1.14" some mixing LGA: 1.11" some mixing HPN: 1.01" All snow How about for us forgotten folk up here in the HV.. MGJ & SWF please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 UKMET Looks like the UKMET gets some light snow to Scranton and Albany. Pretty good hit SE of there. Much better than NCEP models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ...And on the other significant issue, that of timing, looks like this gets underway sometime early afternoon from South to North (jersey/NYC metro)....please correct me if I am wrong. NAM more expansive with UVV's compared to 12z run thus far through 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ...And onthe other significant issue, that of timing, looks like this gets underway sometime early afternoon from South to North (jersey/NYC metro)....please correct me if I am wrong. Looks like a 00z start time on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 1.1" some mixing John BLM Please Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM is still southeast of the globals with the surface low...but has clearly trended away from it's tiny zone of deformation and is now more expansive with the feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ...And on the other significant issue, that of timing, looks like this gets underway sometime early afternoon from South to North (jersey/NYC metro)....please correct me if I am wrong. NAM bascially has the coastal well E and weak, with the only precip for our area maybe coming from the ULL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the storm will be closer to the coast. There is nothing to force this storm really far east. The NAO isn't really negative and the PNA is positive. If you look at the progression of the northern stream on the water vapor loop, you can see how the sharp cutoff may form and the non coastal hugger solution. Yup, the east-west height field sliding down from Canada "wants to" squash this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM looks like it's headed for a nice hit through 30 hrs..low is tucked in to the coast compared to the 12z run and the UVV's are more expansive to the northwest unfortunately its getting worse with each model run....the heavier echoes just skip over LI like its not there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 30 hours the deformation band is much more well developed and further northwest Sim radars and H7 VV's show this well...QPF can be deceiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 unfortunately its getting worse with each model run....the heavier echoes just skip over LI like its not there It's an off hour NAM run. Today's 6z didn't even affect anyone north of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 unfortunately its getting worse with each model run....the heavier echoes just skip over LI like its not there Who cares...it's the 18z NAM...you will never find me complaining about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 enough buddy....look at this objectively for ONCE.PLEASE...if the model is going in the wrong direction i will say so. IS THIS CLEAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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