Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:53 PM, Isotherm said: Wow, absolutey gorgeous evolution with this one John. Also a touch colder through the storm as well vs. 12z. Looks like .75" - 1.0" all snow for the NY Metro on the GFS...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:54 PM, earthlight said: Probably the fourth time I've heard you say that this winter ...I agree bud. John, Im only out to 36 on ncep but does it end around h39? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:54 PM, SACRUS said: John, Im only out to 36 on ncep but does it end around h39? Around there, yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:55 PM, earthlight said: Around there, yes sir. Looks like another 8 - 12 hours deal heaviest 6pm - 3Am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:54 PM, SACRUS said: John, Im only out to 36 on ncep but does it end around h39? looks like it...0.75 line runs from about 15 miles NE of HPN sw to ne from there...the 1.00 line runs from CNJ and coastal CNJ into south western nassau up through northeast nassau into SE CT. For KNYC I'd venture to guess bufkit says 0.89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:36 PM, Snow88 said: DT's final call http://www.wxrisk.co.../01/NELASTC.jpg As so often happens in northern Middlesex County, we're in the battlezone of the gradients. I'm in his zone D for 6-12", but only about 10 miles from zone F (>12"), 10 miles from zone A (6-10" with some mixing) and only 15-20 miles from the dreaded zone C (snow to rain to snow/sleet with 3-6"). Part of me wonders if there's any chance of this storm having a larger sleet component, like VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:59 PM, tmagan said: 18Z RGEM Total Snow Is that a 30mm shade near NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 He has the 12"+ line right over my house as always. We generally do about what Somerset/Middlesex does rather than what Morris/Essex get. On 1/25/2011 at 9:59 PM, RU848789 said: As so often happens in northern Middlesex County, we're in the battlezone of the gradients. I'm in his zone D for 6-12", but only about 10 miles from zone F (>12"), 10 miles from zone A (6-10" with some mixing) and only 15-20 miles from the dreaded zone C (snow to rain to snow/sleet with 3-6"). Part of me wonders if there's any chance of this storm having a larger sleet component, like VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:57 PM, SACRUS said: Looks like another 8 - 12 hours deal heaviest 6pm - 3Am Breakfast and shoveling snow are becoming synonymous nowadays. I keep my shovel right next to the coffee pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:59 PM, tmagan said: 18Z RGEM Total Snow strip of 30mm right around you guessed it NYC metro LOL 1.2in=30mm btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:00 PM, gkrangers said: Is that a 30mm shade near NYC? Looks like we have near 100% model consensus now on a 6-12" / 8-14" type deal. Congrats all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:00 PM, gkrangers said: Is that a 30mm shade near NYC? Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 9:54 PM, earthlight said: Probably the fourth time I've heard you say that this winter ...I agree bud. Yeah - I'm losing track of how many short waves have closed off at H5 on the mid atlantic coast. We've had a ton of favorable SECS/MECS set-ups in the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think I was trying to mention colder trends in the model guidence yesterday.....and it was deleted....well how about now...its looking like mostly snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Crazy part about this is that it's looking good down in the MA and up toward SNE too. A KU storm out of a thread-the-needle threat. Who'd a thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No IMBY here, just the following. Since everything is trending colder can sw nassau perhaps be snow from beginning to end? Earliest it can get into NYC/LI? Latest it can possibly leave. I realize it can be as short as an 8 hour event. What is the maximum length it can be? Seems to be last Wednesday's storm multiplied by 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:02 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Looks like we have near 100% model consensus now on a 6-12" / 8-14" type deal. Congrats all! I'm pretty hyped about this too, but I don't think any congratulations are in order just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:07 PM, sferic said: Seems to be last Wednesday's storm multiplied by 2. Do you mean last Thurs night/Fri? It rained all day last Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:07 PM, sferic said: No IMBY here, just the following. Since everything is trending colder can sw nassau perhaps be snow from beginning to end? Earliest it can get into NYC/LI? Latest it can possibly leave. I realize it can be as short as an 8 hour event. What is the maximum length it can be? Seems to be last Wednesday's storm multiplied by 2. most likely no, maybe sleet/rain/wet snow mix until the heavy stuff takes over and temps crash around 18z give or take a couple hours (7pm) most likely finished by 12z(7am) give or take an hour or 2 about 8-10hours probably yes...around 6-12 is prob a good forecast ATTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:09 PM, meteorjosh said: Do you mean last Thurs night/Fri? It rained all day last Wed. Yes, last Thursday night/ Friday....See how many storms there have been, can't keep track. This is one helluva winter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:10 PM, sferic said: Yes, last Thursday night/ Friday....See how many storms there have been, can't keep track. This is one helluva winter, Haha, if only we could get one during daylight. I guess I'm just greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What is awesome to me is adding to what we have, seems 4 inches is a lock for NYC/LI...but adding 5-10 or 6-12 on top of what's there, and a couple more inches to freshen up add on Saturday..WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:12 PM, meteorjosh said: Haha, if only we could get one during daylight. I guess I'm just greedy. My neighbor turns off his flood light off at 10PM...I rely on a street light 100 yards away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:12 PM, sferic said: What is awesome to me is adding to what we have, seems 4 inches is a lock for NYC/LI...but adding 5-10 or 6-12 on top of what's there, and a couple more inches to freshen up add on Saturday..WOW! Yeah latest GFS has a nice 1-3" swath cutting through the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:14 PM, sferic said: My neighbor turns off his flood light off at 10PM...I rely on a street light 100 yards away My apartment has not one window that looks out on a streetlight or other light source, I actually have to take the elevator down and go outside. Thus, I gauge my outdoor trips solely on radar echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:17 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Yeah latest GFS has a nice 1-3" swath cutting through the area... you're talking about Saturday, right ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:07 PM, sferic said: No IMBY here, just the following. Since everything is trending colder can sw nassau perhaps be snow from beginning to end? Earliest it can get into NYC/LI? Latest it can possibly leave. I realize it can be as short as an 8 hour event. What is the maximum length it can be? Seems to be last Wednesday's storm multiplied by 2. I'm starting to wonder if the whole event can end up being all snow for everyone.....perhaps just not the south fork of LI as NWS is suggesting. As has been the case so many times in the past, if the flow gets going more northerly than easterly then its usually tough for it to not be snow in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 10:19 PM, meteorjosh said: My apartment has not one window that looks out on a streetlight or other light source, I actually have to take the elevator down and go outside. Thus, I gauge my outdoor trips solely on radar echoes. well you can always poingt a dektop lamp out toward the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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