Guest stormchaser Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:25 PM, Patrick said: Cool, Cool. Thanks... I would be shocked if the strongest CCB doesn't show up between Earthlight's house and mine. Look at the water vapor, look at the jet streak, notice where the finger is pointing. Lol thats about as much of an IMBY post/wishcast as you're going to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 u ugys are waaaay too concerned with wich model shows the most for mby. look at the upper levels on select model, watch where the best dynamics are...if ur watching TWC and see some tattas on a stick saying 2-4inches for New York City, and you believe her...you FAIL. also, id caution using the meso guidance for qpf printout. good for finding where the CBB sets up and where the bands form. it is somewhat weird how dry ie tight gradient is set up on the NW side but without blocking or a strong H to our north, guidance should begin to show the h5 low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:25 PM, tmagan said: New HPC snowfall graphics. HPC has us in over 50% 4 inches and over 30% 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:22 PM, eduggs said: I care. I always prefer a run to be stronger, wetter, and/or colder than the previous. The feelings are usually mixed. Just because I'm happy the Euro basically held serve, doesn't mean that I don't care that it significantly cut back on QPF. It's not so black and white. this was my point about why I made my post.....if there is no forward progress you are regressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:25 PM, A-L-E-X said: The euro would be what, 4" of snow for us? I consider that the bottom limit. Doesn't sound right to me at all... if we're thumping heavy snow at 1-2"/hour, it won't be 36 degrees at the surface. Just no way, especially if winds are ageostrophically originating from snowcovered land. When it's coming down at moderate or greater, the column should become isothermal, and it should be all snow for most of us. I can never rule out mixing, especially here on the immediate south shore for a while when the precip is lighter, but when it intensifies I think it quickly goes over to snow. Almost all of us should have a pretty large majority snow event. Hopefully it doesn't get to the point where we have to worry about power outages/downed branches, etc because it should be the very wet, pasty snow we saw last week but twice as much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:31 PM, jm1220 said: Doesn't sound right to me at all... if we're thumping heavy snow at 1-2"/hour, it won't be 36 degrees at the surface. Just no way, especially if winds are ageostrophically originating from snowcovered land. When it's coming down at moderate or greater, the column should become isothermal, and it should be all snow for most of us. I can never rule out mixing, especially here on the immediate south shore for a while when the precip is lighter, but when it intensifies I think it quickly goes over to snow. Almost all of us should have a pretty large majority snow event. Hopefully it doesn't get to the point where we have to worry about power outages/downed branches, etc because it should be the very wet, pasty snow we saw last week but twice as much of it. I agree, and a further consideration would be the 35-40 mph gusts that would add to the power outage dangers. The ONLY thing keeping this from being a damaging event is the short duration-- seems like its out of here during the morning, maybe even before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thank u sir. On 1/25/2011 at 6:26 PM, earthlight said: It's just shy of an inch of liquid...all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Whatever the case, this little event that just passed by, and now another one until Thursday will make people sick of the snow, except us of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:35 PM, A-L-E-X said: I agree, and a further consideration would be the 35-40 mph gusts that would add to the power outage dangers. The ONLY thing keeping this from being a damaging event is the short duration-- seems like its out of here during the morning, maybe even before sunrise. Yep, and that's why its especially hard to go with amounts above 12" anywhere from this, but some spots could approach it if banding really materializes. Some higher ratio snow would help as well. Nassau County had 6-12" from the Xmas 2002 storm, and that lasted only 4-5 hours (the snowy part). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:33 PM, Yankees29 said: JB Update 1 PM DCA to NYC 6 -12 starts as rain Probably some 18" from PA (west of PHL) into SNE GFS is too weak & too far east he says pattern likely to end/change in 2-3 weeks time. Brutal cold 2-1 to 2-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 AndyNJWx: just to warn you all, from NE VA, into C NJ and possibly northern Jersey, 18-25", with blizzard conditions, is on the way. Thats essentially right along i-95 corridor and to its south and east side. This is the biggest one yet this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is there any reasoning for amounts that high? I mean I could see some 12 to 15 isolated 18 but 25"??? On 1/25/2011 at 6:42 PM, whiteoutwx1796 said: AndyNJWx: just to warn you all, from NE VA, into C NJ and possibly northern Jersey, 18-25", with blizzard conditions, is on the way. Thats essentially right along i-95 corridor and to its south and east side. This is the biggest one yet this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:42 PM, whiteoutwx1796 said: AndyNJWx: just to warn you all, from NE VA, into C NJ and possibly northern Jersey, 18-25", with blizzard conditions, is on the way. Thats essentially right along i-95 corridor and to its south and east side. This is the biggest one yet this winter! lol wow, Id be happy with the 6-8 inches the NWS is putting out for us-- anything more would be an extremely pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:42 PM, whiteoutwx1796 said: AndyNJWx: just to warn you all, from NE VA, into C NJ and possibly northern Jersey, 18-25", with blizzard conditions, is on the way. Thats essentially right along i-95 corridor and to its south and east side. This is the biggest one yet this winter! LOLOLOL- that guy hasnt looked at models in years...he wasnt very good back in the day either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 HPC is going with a GGEM or Ukie track. They said the GFS and Nam are too far east. Quote PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GEM GLOBAL OR UKMETTHE NAM AND GFS TRACK THIS CYCLONE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE 00Z EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD HUGGED THE DELMARVA SHORE WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT PHASE. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET DIRECT THE LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE START OF DAY 3...WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY THE BEST FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH HAS FINALLY SETTLED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From past experience, the best banding tends to show up 10-25 miles NW of the positioned forecast 24 hours out (see 12/26/10 event). The models seem to want to take the tremendous amount of moisture and displace it off to the south and east of our area. Then most models have a secondary area of precip developoing over the DC area and tracking ENE. I'm not buying the "skip over NYC area" with the CCB scenario atm. This may be the case where the highest snow totals are displaced to the NW of the heaviest QPF thanks to lower surface temps and higher ratios. I'm not a met by any means but weather has been a hobby for me even as a young child. Most of the people I work with relly on my forecast and even though I currently think its "too close to call" over NE NJ I went with the following forecast. It's more or less a comprimise of the Euro, GGEM and GFS. NYC - 1.2" QPF - 6-12" Ramsey, NJ - 1.1" QPF - 7-14" Wayne, NJ - 1.0" QPF - 6-10" West Milford, NJ - 0.9" QPF - 7-14" (aided by elevation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:46 PM, ace0927 said: LOLOLOL- that guy hasnt looked at models in years...he wasnt very good back in the day either... DT had this storm for awhile; I remember back a few days ago he was calling for 6-12 inches here and he might end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:50 PM, A-L-E-X said: DT had this storm for awhile; I remember back a few days ago he was calling for 6-12 inches here and he might end up right. after last nights model run I had visions grandiose...I was thinking it would be bigger than Dec26th!!! not looking favorable at the moment...maybe that changes tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:52 PM, ace0927 said: after last nights model run I had visions grandiose...I was thinking it would be bigger than Dec26th!!! not looking favorable at the moment...maybe that changes tonight! Setting your expectations that high will only result in an eventual letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:52 PM, ace0927 said: after last nights model run I had visions grandiose...I was thinking it would be bigger than Dec26th!!! not looking favorable at the moment...maybe that changes tonight! please tell me your joking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:54 PM, CooL said: please tell me your joking.... The only place I think this storm might be bigger (and that's a big MIGHT) would be the north shore of Suffolk County where they got 11 inches or so in that storm. but, then again, it still wouldnt be their biggest snow of the season because those same areas got 20" a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:52 PM, ace0927 said: after last nights model run I had visions grandiose...I was thinking it would be bigger than Dec26th!!! not looking favorable at the moment...maybe that changes tonight! No way. The storm's hauling its way out of here and the really heavy snow hits us in maybe 6-8 hours, unlike the 18 hours we had on 12/26, not to mention the fact we'll have lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:56 PM, jm1220 said: No way. The storm's hauling its way out of here and the really heavy snow hits us in maybe 6-8 hours, unlike the 18 hours we had on 12/26, not to mention the fact we'll have lower ratios. Not to disagree but the recent storm in CT that gave NYC 7" or 8" was also a fast mover but dumped 30"+ totals over southwestern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:58 PM, bates said: Not to disagree but the recent storm in CT that gave NYC 7" or 8" was also a fast mover but dumped 30"+ totals over southwestern CT. This storm will likely last longer than that as well...this has a chance to be a 12 hour event, that one was well short of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:53 PM, earthlight said: Setting your expectations that high will only result in an eventual letdown. this storm overall will likely not be as big for a widespread area as 12/26/10 but for some poeple on the coast that storm underachieved and inland areas did alot better, ex. ne jersey that had 28+ when here in southwest suffolk i recorded 16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said: This storm will likely last longer than that as well...this has a chance to be a 12 hour event, that one was well short of that. Do you think we might still have some accumulating snows Thursday morning after sunrise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd say based on "seasonal trends" it would be over by 5 AM lol. Remember waking up 7 AM after every storm this winter to a beautiful red sunrise (shoulda gone out to get pics of it) On 1/25/2011 at 7:00 PM, A-L-E-X said: Do you think we might still have some accumulating snows Thursday morning after sunrise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJohn Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Accumulation for the north shore of Long Island? I'm near Port Jefferson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:58 PM, bates said: Not to disagree but the recent storm in CT that gave NYC 7" or 8" was also a fast mover but dumped 30"+ totals over southwestern CT. It was also a drier snow with high ratios. Maybe inland the ratios will be higher but the same amount of water likely won't produce the same snow totals that one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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