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NYC CWA January 26-27 OBS and Discussion Thread


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Joe B snippet: Says US models still too far east

The big cities are in for a major snow event and I will be upping amounts there, not because of a shift eastward but because snow rates near and to around 100 miles west of the changeover line will be intense.. 2-3 inches/hr for 3-5 hours in some cases. The axis of heaviest snow is still as outlined, but again, I will be upping amounts from DC to NYC with the final idea this afternoon.

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Joe B snippet: Says US models still too far east

The big cities are in for a major snow event and I will be upping amounts there, not because of a shift eastward but because snow rates near and to around 100 miles west of the changeover line will be intense.. 2-3 inches/hr for 3-5 hours in some cases. The axis of heaviest snow is still as outlined, but again, I will be upping amounts from DC to NYC with the final idea this afternoon.

Where does he have the axis of heaviest snow?

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I am still extremely novice about all of this but a quick thanks for the constant updates on this board by everyone in the know.

I am in Long Beach, NY and from what i've read so far, it seems that mixing was a big issue. does the trend seem to be changing toward a more wet snow event and what times wednesday is the majority of this going to occur. Thanks in advance and I won't cloud up the boards with my less than amateur responses.

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Around 1" QPF total for NYC. Rough guess based on the RGEM maps...

You sure?

Im only seeing 10mm-15mm for NYC.

And 5-10mm SWCT.

DC gets about 1"

White shade is 10-20mm and NYC is barely inside that.

RGEM appears a little less precip then NAM. About .50"-.60" for NYC with very sharp cuttoff just north.

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mt holly

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --***WATCH EXPANSION INTO NE MD...N DEL AND MUCH OF NJ EXCEPT FAR

SOUTH PROBABLE AT 1115 AM PENDING NEW GFS***

PLEASE GIVE US TIME ON THIS. WE ALL SAW THE NEW 12Z NAM WITH HUGE

SNOWGROWTH AND QPF AMTS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE NAMS

MORE DEFINED 500MB STRUCTURE. COULD BE THUNDER SNOW WED EVE. COLLAB

WITH HPC AT 8AM REGARDING MY UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NW IN NE PA AND

NW NJ BUT AWAITING ALL THE MODELS BEFORE ANY POSSIBLE TRIM THERE.

FOCUS "MAY" BE SHIFTING SEWD 30 MILES.

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I really dont see that but color will confirm either way.

NYC is in the range between 10 and 25mm on the 48 hour panel. Closer to the 10 side, but it's not unreasonable to think the total ends up nearer 20 when you figure in all the panels, and maybe a mm or two after 48 as the storm tapers off.

The 1" estimate was a ****ty one, I'll say that much.

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mt holly

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --***WATCH EXPANSION INTO NE MD...N DEL AND MUCH OF NJ EXCEPT FAR

SOUTH PROBABLE AT 1115 AM PENDING NEW GFS***

PLEASE GIVE US TIME ON THIS. WE ALL SAW THE NEW 12Z NAM WITH HUGE

SNOWGROWTH AND QPF AMTS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE NAMS

MORE DEFINED 500MB STRUCTURE. COULD BE THUNDER SNOW WED EVE. COLLAB

WITH HPC AT 8AM REGARDING MY UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NW IN NE PA AND

NW NJ BUT AWAITING ALL THE MODELS BEFORE ANY POSSIBLE TRIM THERE.

FOCUS "MAY" BE SHIFTING SEWD 30 MILES.

yeah, RGEM confirms that, and SREFS do as well. That being said, the "infamous" NW trend inside 24 hours still looms and we are still aways out. Convectiion, latent heat release could be a huge factor here.

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