Srain Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 What you are describing seems to be a bit like what the 18z GFS shows in the long run, I think... The past few runs of the GFS and Euro have had some major blocking and large high pressures building across Northern Canada. If we could just get the Pacific to relax, as you say... Oh, so you're awake now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Oh, so you're awake now? Up and ready, sir The 0z GFS likes wxmx's idea of a pattern change in the Pacific just before Chrimbus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Up and ready, sir The 0z GFS likes wxmx's idea of a pattern change in the Pacific just before Chrimbus... i'll be gone. it's a lock. in the mean time, i think hawaii stole our fall severe weather season. watch out for kauai and oahu waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 i'll be gone. it's a lock. I actually won't be here either, so you're probably right What a coinkidink <--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Up and ready, sir The 0z GFS likes wxmx's idea of a pattern change in the Pacific just before Chrimbus... 18 and 0z runs liked it...but 06z didn't... all models show the very negative AO/NAO, and the migration of the high heights towards Nern Canada, but the Pacific pattern isn't going anywhere unless there's a change in the tropical forcing areas near Indonesia, which are feeding with constant lows the GOA. MJO is transiting thru phase 5 towards phase 6, and will probably get close to phase 7, but models show it entering the circle of death thereafter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 warm night. 61F still. looks like mañana will be the better day of the weekend before the north winds kick in. good timing, though. the colder temps will keep me inside and focused on finals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Looks like possibly temps dropping into the upper teens here Sunday night and then way out in GFS fantasy land... a Christmas day surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 Some may disagree, but there are signals or 'hints' to a colder pattern setting up in our area near Christmas, +/- several days. We have seen the GFS occasionally spit out some solutions in the longer range suggesting this. What is catching my eye is the tanking AO, NAO and some hints of the PNA cooperating in the Pacific. The fly in the ointment is the Gulf of Alaska Low that has been present all season. If that feature can shift W, the door could open for some mighty cold air to spill S along the front range of the Rockies and not pass us in a glancing fashion as we have seen of late. Just something to watch and see if it pans out. AO near record negative levels (Blocking pattern)... NAO remaining negative to near neutral... PNA rising from negative to slightly positive (suggests ridging building in the NE Pacific)... 00ZGFS 12/11/2010 Long Range...(Pacific View(500mb) CONUS View (850mb)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 freeze warning all the way to the gulf. hard freeze warning here. 25F the forecasted low. frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Fingers crossed as the the GFS, Canadian and Euro suggest a short wave embedded in the Polar Jet with some Pacific moisture will move across the area this weekend and perhaps bring a chance of light rain for our area. Further N, perhaps even some wintry precip. This feature may be on the way to being a big East Coast snow event as it wraps up along the EC. We shall see... HPC: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 829 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 17 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 20 2010 ...PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED THE 00Z ECMWF TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO THE 06Z GEFS MEAN BY DAY 6. THE BLOCKY REGIME IS INDICATED TO HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD BY ALL THE MODELS...WITH A SUPPRESSED POLAR JET ACROSS THE ENTIRE NATION. HEIGHTS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO HERNIATE NORTHWARD. THE DETAILS OF THE ENERGY COMING INTO THE WEST COAST ARE WILDLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS TO SUPPORT THE BLEND USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE SITUATION ALONG THE EAST COAST IS FAR MORE CONTENTIOUS...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS BOTH BRINGING A MAJOR SNOWSTORM TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DAYS 6 AND 7. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT OVER THIS REGION...AS DOES THE GEM GLOBAL. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/12 AND 12Z/11 RUNS OF THE ECMWF BOTH SHOWED THE SNOWSTORM. OPTED TO GO WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...WHICH AT LEAST BRINGS A CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...JUST FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WITH LESS ISOBARIC COMMITMENT...IF YOU WILL. THIS CHOICE LEAVES ROOM FOR TRENDING EITHER WAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Still keeping those fingers crossed for some moisture this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 A dreary 45ºF day with raw Northeast winds and stratiform rain from a coastal trough, that isn't asking for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'll take our chances with any moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Fingers still crossed that this works out no matter how meager (or what DT says) regarding the amount of moisture for our drought parched area... HGX: A NORTHERN TEXAS PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MID TO LATE FRIDAY APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AND WARM AIR THERMODYNAMICS TO INTRODUCE A MODEST CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH A SHALLOW COOL DOME OF AIR OVER THE REGION...OVERRUNNING MID-LEVEL SW`ERLIES INITIATING DECENT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. MODERATE CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA AS THE PASSING SHORTWAVE/EFFICIENT WAA INCREASES THE PROB OF MAINLY LIGHT QPF SHOWERS. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME IN THE MIDST OF THIS DROUGHT.... UNFORTUNATELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTALS WILL BE THE MOST MANY RECEIVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 broke out the shorts again today. gotta get some use out of them before i leave tomorrow. surprisingly warm 72F at easterwood right now with full sun. would feel perfect if there weren't gusts to 25mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 broke out the shorts again today. gotta get some use out of them before i leave tomorrow. surprisingly warm 72F at easterwood right now with full sun. would feel perfect if there weren't gusts to 25mph. Have a safe trip home. Hopefully a pattern change is in the works for the end of December and we will be done with this dry pattern as we head toward the New Year, however brief it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Have a safe trip home. Hopefully a pattern change is in the works for the end of December and we will be done with this dry pattern as we head toward the New Year, however brief it may be. so nice to end it on a gorgeous day. 75F and sunny this afternoon. only problem is that darn wind. gusting to 30mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm Dreaming Of A White New Years Eve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Have a safe trip home. Hopefully a pattern change is in the works for the end of December and we will be done with this dry pattern as we head toward the New Year, however brief it may be. Will the pattern change be no more GOA low, or will it be no more high latitude blocking? That's the 64k question. Very different outcomes for us down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BikiniBottom Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm Dreaming Of A White New Years Eve... Make it happen, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The GFS is completely ape**** for the week between Christmas and New Years. I mean it is out of its damned mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 crazy that CLL hit 79F today... still five from a record, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Another rollercoaster day ahead regarding temps as the front is through a Nacogdoches, Georgetown, San Antonio line heading S at this hour...the Panhandle is under WWA for 2-4 inches of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 ABQ has upgraded watches to warnings E of ABQ to the TX State line. Perhaps AMA will follow as the storm is stronger than what guidance had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 still pretty warm temps in the panhandle, but tucumcari now is reporting light snow and 35F. here are the txdot webcams for amarillo later on: http://its.txdot.gov/ITS_WEB/FrontEnd/default.html?r=AMA&p=Amarillo&t=cctv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice snow band across the I-40 Corridor and scattered snow/rain showers down along the Permian Basin this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Heads up on a possible event days 10-13. Both 12z GFS and Euro show strong energy ejected from the W coast low (finally). With still some high latitude ridging in N Canada and the possibility of some ridging in the W Coast, some wintry conditions are possible in the S plains. Euro day 10 GFS day 10.5 GFS ensembles day 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice to see the guidnace finally 'hinting' at that change we have all been look forward to. When Jorge gets onboard, look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice to see the guidnace finally 'hinting' at that change we have all been look forward to. When Jorge gets onboard, look out! Thanks Steve. Other than modeling, there are also some teleconnectors. AO and NAO will remain negative, probably not severely so, but enough to keep cold canadian air sipping south. The equator teleconnections aren't that positive, but they will become less negative. The MJO is entering to the circle of death... by itself isn't a positive signal for cold/wet, but at least is out of the dreaded 4-6 phases. Also, -OLR anomalies near Indonesia are forecasted to decrease slightly. This might induce some changes in tropical forcing with subsequent Rossby waves position alteration...specially in W North America. I don't think there will be a real pattern change, since the main teleconnector (ENSO) will remain stable borderline strong, but more of a transitory change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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